Estimation of foreseeable and unforeseeable risks in motor insurance

This project works with the risk model developed by [6] and quests modelling, estimating and pricing insurance for risks brought in by innovative technologies, or other emerging or latent risks. The model considers two different risk streams that arise together, however not clearly separated or observed. Specifically, we consider a risk surplus process where premia are adjusted according to past claim frequencies, like in a Bonus-Malus (BM) system, when we consider a classical or historical risk stream and an unforeseeable risk one. These are unknown risks which can be of high uncertainty that, when pricing insurance (ratemaking and experience rating), suggest a sensitive premium adjustment strategy. It is not clear for the actuary to observe which claim comes from one or the other stream. When modelling such risks it is crucial to estimate the behaviour of such claims, occurrence and their severity. Premium calculation must fairly reflect the nature of these two kinds of risk streams. We start proposing a model, separating claim counts and severities, then propose a premium calculation method, and finally a parameter estimation procedure. In the modelling we assume a Bayesian approach as used in credibility theory, a credibility approach for premium calculation and the use of the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm in the estimation procedureinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Digitizing UK analogue magnetogram records from large geomagnetic storms of the past two centuries

Continuous geomagnetic records of the strength and direction of the Earth's field at the surface extend back to the 1840s. Over the past two centuries, eight observatories have existed in the United Kingdom, which measured the daily field variations using light-sensitive photographic paper to produce analogue magnetograms. Around 350,000 magnetograms have been digitally photographed at high resolution. However, converting the traces to digital values is difficult and time consuming as the magnetograms can have over-lapping lines, low quality recordings and obscure metadata for conversion to SI units. We discuss our approach to digitizing the traces from large geomagnetic storms and highlight some of the issues to be aware of when capturing magnetic information from analogue measurements. These include cross-checking the final digitized values with the recorded hourly mean values from observatory year books and comparing several observatory records for the same storm to catch errors such as sign inversions or incorrect ‘wrap-around’ of data on the paper records

Electronic submission and the movement towards a paperless law office in a modern university

The Government’s target of 50% of all under 30 year olds studying at higher education institutions by 2010, coupled with the National Committee Inquiry into Higher Education’ (1997) concluding that further expansion of higher education could not be afforded under the existing funding arrangements, may have serious ramifications for higher education in the UK. Alongside this increase in numbers, students are increasingly seen as educational consumers with increased choice in a demand-led market which universities must recognise. To compete in this academic environment these institutions are having to be ever more consumer aware in the services they offer and are having to increase choice to attract customers from rival enterprises. Information technology is playing an increasing role in the learning experience as noted by institutional commentators such as the Higher Education Funding Council for England, the Joint Information Systems Committee, the Electronic Books ON-screen Interface group and Lord Dearing’s Report. Technology’s use is further evidenced through institutions’ employment of the internet, e-mail and web-based learning to harness the power of this medium. This paper focuses on the concept of commercialism in the university sector and how a movement to a paperless office may be one way in which a university could gain an early competitive advantage over its rivals. The paper takes a student perspective to demonstrate whether students would wish to move towards electronic methods of submission of assessed work and considers the current problems that are encountered in physical submission of documents. This is the first paper in an on-going research project investigating the benefits and viability of a paperless law office, and the results demonstrate both that the students desire more flexibility in submission of university work and that their acceptance may be the easy first step on the road to the paperless law school

Effects of a Mathematics Cognitive Acceleration Program on Student Achievement and Motivation

This paper presents the effects of a cognitive acceleration program in mathematics classes on Tongan students’ achievements, motivation and self-regulation. Cognitive Acceleration in Mathematics Education (CAME) is a program developed at King’s College and implemented worldwide with the aim of improving students’ thinking skills, mathematics performance and attitudes. The first author adapted the program materials to Tongan educational context and provided support to participating teachers for 8 months. This study employed a quasi-experimental design with 219 Year 8 students as the experimental group and 119 Year 8 students as the comparison group. There were a significant differences in the mean scores between the pre-test and post-test of the three instruments that were employed in the study, indicating that learning mathematics under the CAME program had a positive effect on levels of students’ self-regulation, motivation and mathematics achievement. Students also reported changes to the ways they learn mathematics

The Human Side of Skills and Knowledge

YesThe goal of decent work is best expressed through the eyes of people. It is about your job and future prospects; about your working conditions; about balancing work and family life, putting your kids through school or getting them out of child labour. It is about gender equality, equal recognition, and enabling women to make choices and take control of their lives. It is about personal abilities to compete in the market place, keep up with new technological skills and remain healthy. It is about developing your entrepreneurial skills, about receiving a fair share of wealth that you have helped to create and not being discriminated against; it is about having a voice in your workplace and your community . . . . For everybody, decent work is about securing human dignity (ILO 2001:7 - 8 cited in Green 2006:19 - 20)

Missing Links: Referrer Behavior and Job Segregation

How does referral recruitment contribute to job segregation, and what can organizations do about it? Current theory on network effects in the labor market emphasizes the job-seeker perspective, focusing on the segregated nature of job-seekers’ information and contact networks, and leaves little role for organizational influence. But employee referrals are necessarily initiated from within a firm by referrers. We argue that referrer behavior is the missing link that can help organizations manage the segregating effects of referring. Adopting the referrer’s perspective of the process, we develop a computational model which integrates a set of empirically documented referrer behavior mechanisms gleaned from extant organizational case studies. Using this model, we compare the segregating effects of referring when these behaviors are inactive to the effects when the behaviors are active. We show that referrer behaviors substantially boost the segregating effects of referring. This impact of referrer behavior presents an opportunity for organizations. Contrary to popular wisdom, we show that organizational policies designed to influence referrer behaviors can mitigate most if not all of the segregating effects of referring

Everyday-Life Business Deviance Among Chinese SME Owners

Despite its prevalence in emerging economies, everyday-life business deviance (EBD) and its antecedents have received surprisingly little research attention. Drawing on strain theory and the business-ethics literature, we develop a socio-psychological explanation for this deviance. Our analysis of 741 owners of Chinese small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) suggests that materialism and trust in institutional justice affect EBD both directly and indirectly in a relationship mediated by the ethical standards of SME owners. These findings have important implications for researching deviant business behavior within SMEs

Flexible working and unpaid overtime in the UK: The role of gender, parental and occupational status

Recent studies have shown that flexible boundaries between work and family may make employees work harder and longer. Yet most studies were not able to show whether there are differences across different types of flexible working arrangements, and whether this relationship may only hold for certain groups of workers. We examine how three different types of flexible working arrangements, that is schedule control, flexitime, and teleworking, are associated with an increase in unpaid overtime hours of workers in the UK using the Understanding Society data from 2010-2015 and fixed effects panel regression models. Results show that the flexible arrangements that were introduced primarily for work-life balance purposes, i.e., flexitime and teleworking, do not necessarily increase unpaid overtime hours significantly. On the other hand, workers’ control over their schedule, mainly introduced as a part of high-performance strategies, leads to increased unpaid overtime hours. This is especially true for professional men, and women without children, especially those working full-time, and surprisingly part-time working mothers. The results of this study point to the importance of distinguishing between different groups of workers as well as between different types of arrangements when examining outcomes of flexible working. Furthermore, the results of the study contribute to the argument that performance enhancing flexible working arrangements can potentially exacerbate gender inequalities in the labour market by enabling men to commit more time to their jobs, while for women, especially full-time working mothers, this may be less possible