A Comparison of Machine Learning Algorithms for Prediction of Past Due Service in Commercial Credit

Credit risk modeling has carried a variety of research interest in previous literature, and recent studies have shown that machine learning methods achieved better performance than conventional statistical ones. This study applies decision tree which is a robust advanced credit risk model to predict the commercial non-financial past-due problem with better critical power and accuracy. In addition, we examine the performance with logistic regression analysis, decision trees, and neural networks. The experimenting results confirm that decision trees improve upon other methods. Also, we find some interesting factors that impact the commercials’ non-financial past-due payment

Signal analysis and feature generation for pattern identification of partial discharges in high-voltage equipment

This paper proposes a method for the identification of different partial discharges (PDs) sources through the analysis of a collection of PD signals acquired with a PD measurement system. This method, robust and sensitive enough to cope with noisy data and external interferences, combines the characterization of each signal from the collection, with a clustering procedure, the CLARA algorithm. Several features are proposed for the characterization of the signals, being the wavelet variances, the frequency estimated with the Prony method, and the energy, the most relevant for the performance of the clustering procedure. The result of the unsupervised classification is a set of clusters each containing those signals which are more similar to each other than to those in other clusters. The analysis of the classification results permits both the identification of different PD sources and the discrimination between original PD signals, reflections, noise and external interferences. The methods and graphical tools detailed in this paper have been coded and published as a contributed package of the R environment under a GNU/GPL license

The dynamic centres of infrared-dark clouds and the formation of cores

High-mass stars have an enormous influence on the evolution of the interstellar medium in galaxies, so it is important that we understand how they form. We examine the central clumps within a sample of seven infrared-dark clouds (IRDCs) with a range of masses and morphologies. We use 1-pc-scale observations from the Northern Extended Millimeter Array (NOEMA) and the IRAM 30m telescope to trace dense cores with 2.8-mm continuum, and gas kinematics in C18O, HCO+, HNC, and N2H+ (J = 1–0). We supplement our continuum sample with six IRDCs observed at 2.9 mm with the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA), and examine the relationships between core- and clump-scale properties. We have developed a fully automated multiple-velocity component hyperfine line-fitting code called MWYDYN which we employ to trace the dense gas kinematics in N2H+ (1–0), revealing highly complex and dynamic clump interiors. We find that parsec-scale clump mass is the most important factor driving the evolution; more massive clumps are able to concentrate more mass into their most massive cores – with a log-normally distributed efficiency of around 9 per cent – in addition to containing the most dynamic gas. Distributions of linewidths within the most massive cores are similar to the ambient gas, suggesting that they are not dynamically decoupled, but are similarly chaotic. A number of studies have previously suggested that clumps are globally collapsing; in such a scenario, the observed kinematics of clump centres would be the direct result of gravity-driven mass inflows that become ever more complex as the clumps evolve, which in turn leads to the chaotic mass growth of their core populations

Physiological quality, content and activity of antioxidants in soybean seeds artificially aged.

ABSTRACT - The objective of this study was to evaluate physiological quality, content, and activity of antioxidants, in soybean seeds subjected to accelerated aging during different periods. Seeds of cultivars BRS 258, BRS 262 and BRS 268, subjected to accelerated aging during 12, 24, 36 and 48 hours and non-aged seeds were used. After each aging period, the seed were evaluated by tests of: germination; first count and tetrazolium. The total of phenolic compounds, total flavonoides, total of isoflavones, and activity for eliminating ABTS°+ radicals were quantified. There were differences among cultivars according to vigor and viability only after seeds were aged. Cultivars BRS 158 and BRS 268 have shown better seed physiological quality in each aging period; however, not presenting higher amounts of isoflavones and efficiency in removing free radicals. For all cultivars, the values for total of phenolic compounds, as well as total of flavonoids have shown quadratic positive behavior; the values for isoflavones remained constant and the vigor and viability showed contrary trend to activity of antioxidant agents. RESUMO: Qualidade fisiológica, conteúdo e atividade de antioxidantes presentes em sementes de soja envelhecidas artificialmente. O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar a qualidade fisiológica, o conteúdo e a atividade de agentes antioxidantes presentes em sementes de soja envelhecidas durante diferentes períodos. Foram utilizadas sementes das cultivares BRS 258, BRS 262 e BRS 268, envelhecidas durante 12, 24, 36 e 48 h e sementes não envelhecidas. Após cada período de envelhecimento, as sementes foram avaliadas pelo testes de: germinação; primeira contagem e tetrazólio. Foram quantificados: compostos fenólicos totais; flavonóides totais; total de isoflavonas e atividade eliminadora do radical ABTS°+. Houve diferença entre as cultivares em relação ao vigor e viabilidade somente quando foram envelhecidas. BRS 158 e BRS 268 apresentaram melhor qualidade fisiológica de sementes em cada período de envelhecimento, porém, não apresentaram maior quantidade de isoflavonas e eficiência no sequestro dos radicais livres. Para todas as cultivares, os valores de compostos fenólicos totais, assim como os flavonóides totais, apresentaram comportamento quadrático positivo; os valores das isoflavonas permaneceram constantes e o vigor e a viabilidade apresentaram tendência contrária à atividade dos agentes antioxidantes

Postoperative complications after pancreatoduodenectomy for malignancy: results from the Recurrence After Whipple’s (RAW) study

Background Pancreatoduodenectomy (PD) is associated with significant postoperative morbidity. Surgeons should have a sound understanding of the potential complications for consenting and benchmarking purposes. Furthermore, preoperative identification of high-risk patients can guide patient selection and potentially allow for targeted prehabilitation and/or individualized treatment regimens. Using a large multicentre cohort, this study aimed to calculate the incidence of all PD complications and identify risk factors. Method Data were extracted from the Recurrence After Whipple’s (RAW) study, a retrospective cohort study of PD outcomes (29 centres from 8 countries, 2012–2015). The incidence and severity of all complications was recorded and potential risk factors for morbidity, major morbidity (Clavien–Dindo grade > IIIa), postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF), post-pancreatectomy haemorrhage (PPH) and 90-day mortality were investigated. Results Among the 1348 included patients, overall morbidity, major morbidity, POPF, PPH and perioperative death affected 53 per cent (n = 720), 17 per cent (n = 228), 8 per cent (n = 108), 6 per cent (n = 84) and 4 per cent (n = 53), respectively. Following multivariable tests, a high BMI (P = 0.007), an ASA grade > II (P II patients were at increased risk of major morbidity (P < 0.0001), and a raised BMI correlated with a greater risk of POPF (P = 0.001). Conclusion In this multicentre study of PD outcomes, an ASA grade > II was a risk factor for major morbidity and a high BMI was a risk factor for POPF. Patients who are preoperatively identified to be high risk may benefit from targeted prehabilitation or individualized treatment regimens

Effects of pH management during deep hypothermic bypass on cerebral oxygenation: alpha-stat versus pH-stat

Objective: There is a remarkable lack of scientific evidence to support the option to use alpha-stat or pH-stat management, as to which is more beneficial to brain protection during deep hypothermic CPB. This study examined cortical blood flow (CBF), cerebral oxygenation, and brain oxygen consumption in relation to deep hypothermic CPB with alpha-stat or pH-stat management. Methods: Twenty-two pigs were cooled with alpha-stat or pH-stat during CPB to 15 °C esophageal temperature. CBF and cerebral oxygenation were measured continuously with a laser flowmeter and near-infrared spectroscopy, respectively. Brain oxygen consumption was measured with standard laboratory techniques. Results: During CPB cooling, CBF was significantly decreased, about 52.2%±6.3% (P<0.01 vs 92.6%±6.5% of pH-stat) at 15 °C in alpha-stat, whereas there were no significant changes in CBF in pH-stat. While cooling down, brain oxygen extraction (OER) progressively decreased, about 9.5%±0.9% and 10.9%±1.5% at 15 °C in alpha-stat and pH-stat, respectively. At 31 °C the decreased value in pH-stat was lower than in alpha-stat (29.9%±2.7% vs 22.5%±1.9%; P<0.05). The ratio of CBF/OER were 2.0±0.3 in alpha-stat and pH-stat, respectively; it was kept in constant level in alpha-stat, and significantly increased by 19 °C to 15 °C in pH-stat (4.9±0.9 vs 2.3±0.4; P<0.01). In mild hypothermia, cerebral oxyhemoglobin and oxygen saturation in alpha-stat were greater than that in pH-stat (102.5%±1.4% vs 99.1%±0.7%; P<0.05). In deep hypothermia, brain oxygen saturation in pH-stat was greater than that in alpha-stat (99.2%±1.0% vs 93.8%±1.0%; P<0.01), and deoxyhemoglobin in pH-stat decreased more greatly than that in alpha-stat (28.7%±6.8% vs 54.1%±4.7%; P<0.05). Conclusions: In mild hypothermic CPB, brain tissue oxygen saturation was greater in alpha-stat than in pH-stat. However, cerebral oxygenation and brain tissue oxygen saturation were better in pH-stat than in alpha-stat during profound hypothermia. PH-stat strategy provided much more oxygen to brain tissue before deep hypothermic circulatory arrest

Autonomy in long-term care: a need, a right or a luxury?

Doyal and Gough’s theory of human need highlighted that personal autonomy is a universal need and human right, essential for well‐being. In applying their theory to older disabled people in the UK the author suggests that their ‘minimally autonomous’ threshold would exclude some older people in long‐term care who still have a fundamental need for autonomy or, alternatively, extant autonomy. The disability movement has highlighted that independent living is fundamental to achieving self‐determination for disabled people and debate on equality and caregiving emphasises the autonomy of carers. However, there is a lack of recognition in both academic research and government policy of autonomy as a need and right of older disabled people. The author argues that autonomy is a human right of older people living in long‐term care settings, but that social rights are necessary to facilitate their autonomy