Towards a circular economy: insights based on the development of the global ENGAGE-materials model and evidence for the iron and steel industry

A number of recent economic modelling studies have attempted to analyse resource efficiency and the circular economy. However, modelling analysis in this area is relatively underdeveloped. In particular, many CGE models are unable to provide significant insight given their aggregated sectoral coverage. Here we describe the development of the Environmental Global Applied General Equilibrium (ENGAGEmaterials) model created to consider the economic and sectoral effects of potential policies on a circular economy and resource efficiency, which affect materials and resources at the stages of extraction, production and recycling. Our policy scope is global with a special emphasis on China and Europe, as both regions have dedicated policies in place and indicate their willingness to take the lead. The case of steel is relevant as it is a key material for all economies across the world and offers a range of interesting features for circularity and sustainability. ENGAGE-materials models iron ore mining, primary production of iron and steel, secondary production of iron and steel, and steel scrap recycling at the global level. We utilise this technology rich framework to provide preliminary results on scenarios comprising economic insights into a saturation effect and straightforward policy such as doubling the availability of secondary steel

Разработка модуля защищённого документооборота с использованием гибридной криптосистемы

This article describes the process of creation hybrid cryptosystem. Also considered the creation of extensions for the browser

Electric vehicle: infrastructure regulatory requirements

In 2009 the European Union (EU) Directive on Renewable Energy placed an obligation on each Member State to ensure that 10% of transport energy (excluding aviation and marine transport) come from renewable sources by 2020. The Irish Government intends to achieve part of this target by making sure that 10% of all vehicles in its transport fleet are powered by electricity by 2020. Stakeholder groups include but are not limited to policy makers, the public, regulatory bodies, participants in the electricity retail market, the transmission and distribution system grid operators, the automotive industry, private enterprise, civil engineers, electrical engineers, electricians, architects, builders, building owners, building developers, building managers, fleet managers and EV owners. Currently it appears both internationally and Nationally the automotive industry is focused on EV manufacture, governments and policy makers have highlighted the potential environmental and job creation opportunities while the electricity sector is preparing for an additional electrical load on the grid system. The focus of this paper is to produce an international EV roadmap. A review of current international best practice and guidelines under consideration or recommended is presented. An update on any EV infrastructure charging equipment standards is also provided. Finally the regulatory modifications to existing National legislation as well as additional infrastructure items which may need control via new regulations are identified

О механизме сольватации ионов и радиусах сольватированных ионов галогеноводородов в н-спиртах

На основе предложенной модификации двухслойной модели Абрахама и Лиси рассчитаны эффективные радиусы (rᵢ) и величины изменения энергии Гиббса сольватации (ΔcGᵢ⁰) для бромид-, иодид-ионов и ионов Н⁺ в ряду н-спиртов от метанола до октанола при 5-55°С. Показано, что данная модификация согласуется с механизмом сольватации ионов, который сводится к уменьшению свободной энергии системы за счет нейтрализации заряда иона и перераспределения заряда с окружающими молекулами растворителя.Modification of double-layer model Abraham-Liszi is offered by authors both effective radii (rᵢ) and values of changes of Gibbs energy solvation (ΔcGᵢ⁰) for bromide- and iodide-ions in a series of primary alcohols from methanol to octanol are calculated at 278.15-328.15 K on the basis of this modification. The latter consider the mechanism of ions solvation better. This mechanism takes into account reduction of a free energy of system at the expense of neutralization of an ion charge and redistribution of a charge with environmental solvent molecules

Projecting irrigation water requirements across multiple socio-economic development futures – A global CGE assessment

The article explores the implications of income and population growth over crop output and the consequent changes in freshwater requirements for irrigation. We use three alternative patterns of global socio-economic development (SSP1, SSP2 and SSP5) in conjunction with expected technological change coming from inherent yield improvements. Compared to other projections of blue water uses in crop production, the research provides a new perspective by using a multi-regional macro-economic approach. Freshwater requirements are calculated using a global Computable General Equilibrium framework with the induced pressure over renewable freshwater resources measured through the Irrigation Withdrawals to Availability (IWA) indicator. The RESCU-Water model employed distinguishes between rainfed and irrigated crop production. The model database also introduces an improved accounting method to derive the value of irrigation freshwater as a separate factor of production. The results show a positive relationship between socio-economic development and irrigation water use in most areas. Water-challenged regions continue to increase the pressure they exert over their renewable freshwater resources. Higher growth scenarios (SSP1 and SSP5) exacerbate these trends, leading to a more pronounced expansion of global blue water withdrawals. The obtained growth in freshwater requirements hints at continued unsustainable withdrawals in many regions and provides further evidence to support the SDG target 6.4 referring to the need for improved water-use efficiency

Global crop output and irrigation water requirements under a changing climate

The anthropogenic increases in CO2 atmospheric concentrations are expected to lead to multiple and possibly opposing effects on crop performance with important implications for crop water productivity. The study integrates the global responses to mounting concentrations at three levels – climatic, cropping and economic – to determine the deviations in crop production and irrigation water requirements from a 'no climate change' socioeconomic development storyline. The biophysical effects are considered comprehensively for eight crop classes by taking into account alterations both to rainfed and irrigation yields, and to irrigation water intensities. These changes in crop growing conditions are explored in the 2004–2050 timeframe across two concentrations pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP 8.5) with the inclusion of the CO2 fertilisation effect. The economic responses are determined through a global water CGE model (RESCU-Water) comprising a bottom-up representation of crop systems. Changes in climatic conditions reduce crop output and depress the global water demand for irrigated crops in spite of an increase in irrigation water intensities. Discrepancies in crop production impacts between tropical and temperate regions increase with CO2 concentration levels. Embedding CO2 fertilisation more than offsets these adverse effects by determining a net increase in crop production and a reduction in irrigation water requirements at a regional level. The resulting water savings potential, even in the lower concentrations scenario (RCP2.6), warrant more research with the aim of reducing the different classes of uncertainty regarding the effects of CO2 fertilisation

Global Economic and Food Security Impacts of Demand-Driven Water Scarcity - Alternative Water Management Options for a Thirsty World

Global freshwater demand will likely continue its expansion under current expectations of economic and population growth. Withdrawals in regions which are already water-scarce will impose further pressure on the renewable water resource base threatening the long-term availability of freshwater across the many economic activities dependent on this resource for various functions. This paper assesses the economy-wide implications of demand-driven water scarcity under a ‘middle-of-the-road’ socio-economic development pathway by considering the trade-offs between the macroeconomic and food security impacts. The study employs a global CGE model comprising an advanced level of detail regarding water uses across economic activities and which allows for a sector-specific endogenous adaptation to water scarcity. A sustainable withdrawal threshold is imposed in regions with extended river-basin overexploitation (India, South Asia, the Middle East, and Northern Africa) whilst different water management options are considered through four alternative allocation methods across users. The scale of macroeconomic effects is dependent on the relative size of sectors with low-water productivity, the amount of water uses in these sectors, and the flexibility of important water users to substitute away from water inputs in conditions of scarcity. The largest negative GDP deviations are obtained in scenarios with limited mobility to re-allocate water across users. A significant alleviation is obtained when demand patterns are shifted based on differences in water productivity, however, with a significant imposition on food security prospects

Steel in a circular economy: global implications of a green shift in China

China is increasingly known for its ambitions towards an ‘ecological civilisation’ and a circular economy. Our article assesses the implications of an accelerated shift towards steel recycling in China. Given the relevance of steel for development worldwide as well as its environmental intensity, any such shift is likely to have implications for competitiveness in China and beyond. Recent findings suggest that China could take advantage of an increasing availability of obsolete steel scrap in the coming decades, moving towards more circular, and potentially greener, steel production. We assess such industrial restructuring from an economic perspective and address the competitiveness of China relative to other developing and industrialised regions. The analysis uses a novel global economy-wide modelling framework (ENGAGE-materials) to assess the aggregate and sector-level impacts of different scrap use options in China in the 2019–2030 time frame. The results show moderate GDP gains for China of cumulated USD 589 billion in GDP gains by 2030 despite a replacement of primary steel capacity. A more comprehensive industrial policy mix aimed at improved recycling practices and more adaptive downstream sectors could increase gains to USD 819 billion. The international implications are mixed, with losses for iron ore producers (Australia, Brazil and India) and gains for most developing countries benefiting from lower steel prices. Another result is an increasing demand for coal in electricity production if such a shift wouldn’t be aligned with an accelerated energy transition towards low carbon pathways. We discuss policy implications of such alignment, potential co-benefits, and a need for green international partnerships