The myths and realities of Bayesian chronological modeling revealed

We review the history of Bayesian chronological modeling in archaeology and demonstrate that there has been a surge over the past several years in American archaeological applications. Most of these applications have been performed by archaeologists who are self-taught in this method because formal training opportunities in Bayesian chronological modeling are infrequently provided. We define and address misconceptions about Bayesian chronological modeling that we have encountered in conversations with colleagues and in anonymous reviews, some of which have been expressed in the published literature. Objectivity and scientific rigor is inherent in the Bayesian chronological modeling process. Each stage of this process is described in detail, and we present examples of this process in practice. Our concluding discussion focuses on the potential that Bayesian chronological modeling has for enhancing understandings of important topics

Transfer function approach to collective mode dynamics in a Nd:YAG laser

For a multimode laser operating in a steady state regime with small-signal gain modulation, transfer functions are measured for both total intensity and intensities of individual modes. A quantitative picture of the phase clustering of contributions from each cavity mode to the collective mode dynamics is obtained from the transfer functions in the pole-residue representation.Stamatescu, L. Hamilton, M. W

Preliminary design of an auxiliary power unit for the space shuttle. Volume 4: Selected system supporting studies

Selected system supporting analyses in conjunction with the preliminary design of an auxiliary power unit (APU) for the space shuttle are presented. Both steady state and transient auxiliary power unit performance, based on digital computer programs, were examined. The selected APU provides up to 400 horsepower out of the gearbox, weighs 227 pounds, and requires 2 pounds per shaft horsepower hour of propellants

Preliminary design of an auxiliary power unit for the space shuttle. Volume 5: Selected system cycle performance data

Detailed cycle steady-state performance data are presented for the final auxiliary power unit (APU) system configuration. The selection configuration is a hydrogen-oxygen APU incorporating a recuperator to utilize the exhaust energy and using the cycle hydrogen flow as a means of cooling the component heat loads. The data are given in the form of computer printouts and provide the following: (1) verification of the adequacy of the design to meet the problem statement for steady-state performance; (2) overall system performance data for the vehicle system analyst to determine propellant consumption and hydraulic fluid temperature as a function for varying mission profiles, propellant inlet conditions, etc.; and (3) detailed component performance and cycle state point data to show what is happening in the cycle as a function of the external forcing functions

Research in progress: Assessing marine radiocarbon reservoir effect variation in greater Utqiaġvik, Alaska

No abstract available

Optimal Estimation of Several Linear Parameters in the Presence of Lorentzian Thermal Noise

In a previous article we developed an approach to the optimal (minimum variance, unbiased) statistical estimation technique for the equilibrium displacement of a damped, harmonic oscillator in the presence of thermal noise. Here, we expand that work to include the optimal estimation of several linear parameters from a continuous time series. We show that working in the basis of the thermal driving force both simplifies the calculations and provides additional insight to why various approximate (not optimal) estimation techniques perform as they do. To illustrate this point, we compare the variance in the optimal estimator that we derive for thermal noise with those of two approximate methods which, like the optimal estimator, suppress the contribution to the variance that would come from the irrelevant, resonant motion of the oscillator. We discuss how these methods fare when the dominant noise process is either white displacement noise or noise with power spectral density that is inversely proportional to the frequency ($1/f$ noise). We also construct, in the basis of the driving force, an estimator that performs well for a mixture of white noise and thermal noise. To find the optimal multi-parameter estimators for thermal noise, we derive and illustrate a generalization of traditional matrix methods for parameter estimation that can accommodate continuous data. We discuss how this approach may help refine the design of experiments as they allow an exact, quantitative comparison of the precision of estimated parameters under various data acquisition and data analysis strategies.Comment: 16 pages, 10 figures. Accepted for publication in Classical and Quantum Gravit

The Generalized Ricci Flow for 3D Manifolds with One Killing Vector

We consider 3D flow equations inspired by the renormalization group (RG) equations of string theory with a three dimensional target space. By modifying the flow equations to include a U(1) gauge field, and adding carefully chosen De Turck terms, we are able to extend recent 2D results of Bakas to the case of a 3D Riemannian metric with one Killing vector. In particular, we show that the RG flow with De Turck terms can be reduced to two equations: the continual Toda flow solved by Bakas, plus its linearizaton. We find exact solutions which flow to homogeneous but not always isotropic geometries

Gas Absorption in the KH 15D System: Further Evidence for Dust Settling in the Circumbinary Disk

Na I D lines in the spectrum of the young binary KH 15D have been analyzed in detail. We find an excess absorption component that may be attributed to foreground interstellar absorption, and to gas possibly associated with the solids in the circumbinary disk. The derived column density is log N_NaI = 12.5 cm^-2, centered on a radial velocity that is consistent with the systemic velocity. Subtracting the likely contribution of the ISM leaves log N_NaI ~ 12.3 cm^-2. There is no detectable change in the gas column density across the "knife edge" formed by the opaque grain disk, indicating that the gas and solids have very different scale heights, with the solids being highly settled. Our data support a picture of this circumbinary disk as being composed of a very thin particulate grain layer composed of millimeter-sized or larger objects that are settled within whatever remaining gas may be present. This phase of disk evolution has been hypothesized to exist as a prelude to the formation of planetesimals through gravitational fragmentation, and is expected to be short-lived if much gas were still present in such a disk. Our analysis also reveals the presence of excess Na I emission relative to the comparison spectrum at the radial velocity of the currently visible star that plausibly arises within the magnetosphere of this still-accreting young star.Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ, 23 pages, 6 figure