Modelling Grassland Ecosystems

In this contribution a view of the promise and difficulties of modelling grassland is given. This is largely centred around work with a grassland ecosystem simulator known as the Hurley Pasture Model. A brief introduction sets forth possible reasons for building a large ecosystem model, and stresses the importance of modelling objectives. It is suggested that a model is de rigeur for any research programme which aims to take a firm grasp of the complex responses of grassland. Mechanistic models are required to provide the understanding needed for intelligent and flexible management of grassland, whatever the prevailing environmental or economic objectives. The models are necessarily large, reflecting the complexity of the ‘real’ system, and, in a sense, are ‘big’ science. The challenge is to develop models of ‘engineering strength’. This requires an appropriate research environment, which should be reasonably stable, multidisciplinary, well-connected to experimental programmes, and permit adequate support for the three essential legs of an ecosystem model: development, documentation, and application. Some modelling researchers are dismayed by the wasteful fragmentation of many plant ecosystem modelling research programmes. Next an outline account of the Hurley Pasture Model (HPM) is given. Most plant ecosystem models are now quite similar at the qualitative level, and few would dispute the statement that a reasonable level of consensus is emerging. The HPM is a standard model of the genre. It comprises plant, animal, soil and water submodels. To-date there is no phenology submodel. There are environmental and management drivers, the former accepting monthly, daily or diurnal data, the latter permitting the simulation of fertilizer, grazing, and cutting scenarios, more or less ad libitum. Recent developments of the HPM include a submodel to take account of acclimation of photosynthesis to light, nitrogen, carbon dioxide (‘down-regulation’) and temperature; and a simple method of using the HPM to simulate legume dynamics in a grass-legume pasture. Finally, some applications of the model are presented, relating to fertilizer application, grazing, harvesting, and climate change. These are to illustrate the scope of the model, for both application and understanding. The last application shows that in grassland ecosystems climate change responses can be greatly affected by (i) a variable legume content; (ii) management, e.g. how the crop is grazed or cut; and (iii) water stress, as occurs in southern Britain. The impact of climate change on grassland ecosystems is of particular interest. It is known that, in a constant climate, a grassland ecosystem can take hundreds of years to come to equilibrium. Experiments cannot address the problem directly. Short-term experiments can give very variable responses, depending on conditions, which are often misleading, even opposite in sign from long-term responses. Mechanistic models provide a clear framework for unifying these variable results, understanding why they arise, and making predictions about the future time course of plant ecosystems. There seems to be no other way of doing this work

The Macrame 1024 node switching network

The work reported involves the construction of a large modular testbed using IEEE 1355 DS link technology. A thousand nodes will be interconnected by a switching fabric based on the STC104 packet switch. The system has been designed and constructed in a modular way in order to allow a variety of different network topologies to be investigated. Network throughput and latency have been studied for different network topologies under various traffic conditions

How to Measure Subdiffusion Parameters

We propose a method to measure the subdiffusion parameter $\alpha$ and subdiffusion coefficient $D_{\alpha}$ which are defined by means of the relation $=\frac{2D_\alpha} {\Gamma(1+\alpha)} t^\alpha$ where $$ denotes a mean square displacement of a random walker starting from $x=0$ at the initial time $t=0$. The method exploits a membrane system where a substance of interest is transported in a solvent from one vessel to another across a thin membrane which plays here only an auxiliary role. We experimentally study a diffusion of glucose and sucrose in a gel solvent, and we precisely determine the parameters $\alpha$ and $D_{\alpha}$, using a fully analytic solution of the fractional subdiffusion equation.Comment: short version of cond-mat/0309072, to appear in Phys. Rev. Let

Uncovering Spiral Structure in Flocculent Galaxies

We present K'(2.1 micron) observations of four nearby flocculent spirals, which clearly show low-level spiral structure and suggest that kiloparsec-scale spiral structure is more prevalent in flocculent spirals than previously supposed. In particular, the prototypical flocculent spiral NGC 5055 is shown to have regular, two-arm spiral structure to a radius of 4 kpc in the near infrared, with an arm-interarm contrast of 1.3. The spiral structure in all four galaxies is weaker than that in grand design galaxies. Taken in unbarred galaxies with no large, nearby companions, these data are consistent with the modal theory of spiral density waves, which maintains that density waves are intrinsic to the disk. As an alternative, mechanisms for driving spiral structure with non-axisymmetric perturbers are also discussed. These observations highlight the importance of near infrared imaging for exploring the range of physical environments in which large-scale dynamical processes, such as density waves, are important.Comment: 12 pages AASTeX; 3 compressed PS figures can be retrieved from ftp://ftp.astro.umd.edu/pub/michele as file thornley.tar (1.6Mbytes). Accepted to Ap.J. Letters.(Figures now also available here, and from ftp://ftp.astro.umd.edu/pub/michele , in GIF format.

Investigation of the Repassivation Process of CoCrMo in Simulated Biological Fluids

A thorough investigation into the repassivation process of CoCrMo in multiple simulated biological environments has been undertaken, looking in detail at both the kinetics and composition of the reformed oxide film. Specific focus of this research was aimed at determining the effect of bovine serum albumin (BSA) on these features. The kinetics of repassivation were obtained by using a variety of electrochemical techniques. The current transients formed were fitted to a second-order decay curve, which accouts for two separate phases: coverage and growth. The reformation of the passive film was fastest in a phosphate buffered saline environment, with the presence of BSA delaying this process because it inhibits the oxygen-reduction reaction as it obstructs the active sites of the alloy when adsorbed onto the surface. The composition of the newly formed film was analyzed with x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy. As expected, the film was primarily composed of chromium (III) oxide with small contributions from cobalt and molybdenum oxides. In the presence of BSA, the quantity of molybdenum within the film was drastically reduced; it was shown to be extracted into the bulk solution via inductively coupled mass spectroscopy. This is observed because BSA is able to complex preferentially to the molybdenum ions when the alloy is exposed, extracting them into solution and altering the composition and integrity of the film

Infrared dust emission in the outer disk of M51

We examine faint infrared emission features detected in Spitzer Space Telescope images of M51, which are associated with atomic hydrogen in the outer disk and tidal tail at R greater than R_25 (4.9', ~14 kpc at d=9.6 Mpc). The infrared colors of these features are consistent with the colors of dust associated with star formation in the bright disk. However, the star formation efficiency (as a ratio of star formation rate to neutral gas mass) implied in the outer disk is lower than that in the bright disk of M51 by an order of magnitude, assuming a similar relationship between infrared emission and star formation rate in the inner and outer disks.Comment: 13 pages in manuscript form, 2 figures; download PDF of manuscript with original-resolution Figure 1 at http://www.eg.bucknell.edu/physics/thornley/thornleym51.pd

The inter-rater reliability of the diagnosis of surgical site infection in the context of a clinical trial.

ObjectivesThe diagnosis of surgical site infection following endoprosthetic reconstruction for bone tumours is frequently a subjective diagnosis. Large clinical trials use blinded Central Adjudication Committees (CACs) to minimise the variability and bias associated with assessing a clinical outcome. The aim of this study was to determine the level of inter-rater and intra-rater agreement in the diagnosis of surgical site infection in the context of a clinical trial.Materials and methodsThe Prophylactic Antibiotic Regimens in Tumour Surgery (PARITY) trial CAC adjudicated 29 non-PARITY cases of lower extremity endoprosthetic reconstruction. The CAC members classified each case according to the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) criteria for surgical site infection (superficial, deep, or organ space). Combinatorial analysis was used to calculate the smallest CAC panel size required to maximise agreement. A final meeting was held to establish a consensus.ResultsFull or near consensus was reached in 20 of the 29 cases. The Fleiss kappa value was calculated as 0.44 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.35 to 0.53), or moderate agreement. The greatest statistical agreement was observed in the outcome of no infection, 0.61 (95% CI 0.49 to 0.72, substantial agreement). Panelists reached a full consensus in 12 of 29 cases and near consensus in five of 29 cases when CDC criteria were used (superficial, deep or organ space). A stable maximum Fleiss kappa of 0.46 (95% CI 0.50 to 0.35) at CAC sizes greater than three members was obtained.ConclusionsThere is substantial agreement among the members of the PARITY CAC regarding the presence or absence of surgical site infection. Agreement on the level of infection, however, is more challenging. Additional clinical information routinely collected by the prospective PARITY trial may improve the discriminatory capacity of the CAC in the parent study for the diagnosis of infection.Cite this article: J. Nuttall, N. Evaniew, P. Thornley, A. Griffin, B. Deheshi, T. O'Shea, J. Wunder, P. Ferguson, R. L. Randall, R. Turcotte, P. Schneider, P. McKay, M. Bhandari, M. Ghert. The inter-rater reliability of the diagnosis of surgical site infection in the context of a clinical trial. Bone Joint Res 2016;5:347-352. DOI: 10.1302/2046-3758.58.BJR-2016-0036.R1