Infective endocarditis: do we have an effective risk score model? A systematic review

Background Infective endocarditis (IE) is a rare, highly morbid condition with 17% in-hospital mortality. 25-30% require surgery and there is ongoing debate with regard to markers predicting patient outcomes and guiding intervention. This systematic review aims to evaluate all IE risk scores currently available. Methods Standard methodology (PRISMA guideline) was used. Papers with risk score analysis for IE patients were included, with attention to studies reporting area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve(AUC/ROC). Qualitative analysis was carried out, including assessment of validation processes and comparison of these results to original derivation cohorts where available. Risk-of-bias analysis illustrated according to PROBAST guidelines. Results Of 75 articles initially identified, 32 papers were analysed for a total of 20 proposed scores, (range 66-13,000 patients), 14 of which were specific for IE. The number of variables per score ranged from 3 to 14 with only 50% including microbiological variables and 15% including biomarkers. The following scores had good performance (AUC>0.8) in studies proposing the score (often the derivation cohort); however fared poorly when applied to a new cohort: PALSUSE, DeFeo, ANCLA, RISK-E, EndoSCORE, MELD-XI, COSTA, SHARPEN. DeFeo score demonstrated the largest discrepancy with initial AUC of 0.88, compared to 0.58 when applied to different cohorts. The inflammatory response in IE has been well documented and CRP has been found to be an independent predictor for worse outcomes. There is ongoing investigation on alternate inflammatory biomarkers which may assist in IE management. Of the scores identified in this review, only 3 have included a biomarker as a predictor. Conclusion Despite the variety of available scores, their development has been limited by small sample size, retrospective collection of data and short-term outcomes, with lack of external validation, limiting their transportability. Future population studies and large comprehensive registries are required to address this unmet clinical need

Hemispheric symptoms and carotid plaque echomorphology

AbstractPurpose: In patients with carotid bifurcation disease, the risk of stroke mainly depends on the severity of the stenosis, the presenting hemispheric symptom, and, as recently suggested, on plaque echodensity. We tested the hypothesis that asymptomatic carotid plaques and plaques of patients who present with different hemispheric symptoms are related to different plaque structure in terms of echodensity and the degree of stenosis. Methods: Two hundred sixty-four patients with 295 carotid bifurcation plaques (146 symptomatic, 149 asymptomatic) causing more than 50% stenosis were examined with duplex scanning. Thirty-six plaques were associated with amaurosis fugax (AF), 68 plaques were associated with transient ischemic attacks (TIAs), and 42 plaques were associated with stroke. B-mode images were digitized and normalized using linear scaling and two reference points, blood and adventitia. The gray scale median (GSM) of blood was set to 0, and the GSM of the adventitia was set to 190 (gray scale range, black = 0; white = 255). The GSM of the plaque in the normalized image was used as the objective measurement of echodensity. Results: The mean GSM and the mean degree of stenosis, with 95% confidence intervals, for plaques associated with hemispheric symptoms were 13.3 (10.6 to 16) and 80.5 (78.3 to 82.7), respectively; and for asymptomatic plaques, the mean GSM and the mean degree of stenosis were 30.5 (26.2 to 34.7) and 72.2 (69.8 to 74.5), respectively. Furthermore, in plaques related to AF, the mean GSM and the mean degree of stenosis were 7.4 (1.9 to 12.9) and 85.6 (82 to 89.2), respectively; in those related to TIA, the mean GSM and the mean degree of stenosis were 14.9 (11.2 to 18.6) and 79.3 (76.1 to 82.4), respectively; and in those related to stroke, the mean GSM and the mean degree of stenosis were 15.8 (10.2 to 21.3) and 78.1 (73.4 to 82.8), respectively. Conclusion: Plaques associated with hemispheric symptoms are more hypoechoic and more stenotic than those associated with no symptoms. Plaques associated with AF are more hypoechoic and more stenotic than those associated with TIA or stroke or those without symptoms. Plaques causing TIA and stroke have the same echodensity and the same degree of stenosis. These findings confirm previous suggestions that hypoechoic plaques are more likely to be symptomatic than hyperechoic ones. They support the hypothesis that the pathophysiologic mechanism for AF is different from that for TIA and stroke. (J Vasc Surg 2000;31:39-49.

Carotid Plaque Age Is a Feature of Plaque Stability Inversely Related to Levels of Plasma Insulin

C-declination curve (a result of the atomic bomb tests in the 1950s and 1960s) to determine the average biological age of carotid plaques.C content by accelerator mass spectrometry. The average plaque age (i.e. formation time) was 9.6±3.3 years. All but two plaques had formed within 5–15 years before surgery. Plaque age was not associated with the chronological ages of the patients but was inversely related to plasma insulin levels (p = 0.0014). Most plaques were echo-lucent rather than echo-rich (2.24±0.97, range 1–5). However, plaques in the lowest tercile of plaque age (most recently formed) were characterized by further instability with a higher content of lipids and macrophages (67.8±12.4 vs. 50.4±6.2, p = 0.00005; 57.6±26.1 vs. 39.8±25.7, p<0.0005, respectively), less collagen (45.3±6.1 vs. 51.1±9.8, p<0.05), and fewer smooth muscle cells (130±31 vs. 141±21, p<0.05) than plaques in the highest tercile. Microarray analysis of plaques in the lowest tercile also showed increased activity of genes involved in immune responses and oxidative phosphorylation.C, can improve our understanding of carotid plaque stability and therefore risk for clinical complications. Our results also suggest that levels of plasma insulin might be involved in determining carotid plaque age

Severity of asymptomatic carotid stenosis and risk of ipsilateral hemispheric ischaemic events: Results from the ACSRS study

Objectives. This study determines the risk of ipsilateral ischaemic neurological events in relation to the degree of asymptomatic carotid stenosis and other risk factors. Methods. Patients (n = 1115) with asymptomatic internal carotid artery (ICA) stenosis greater than 50% in relation to the bulb diameter were followed up for a period of 6-84 (mean 37.1) months. Stenosis was graded using duplex, and clinical and biochemical risk factors were recorded. Results. The relationship between ICA stenosis and event rate is linear when stenosis is expressed by the ECST method, but S-shaped if expressed by the NASCET method. In addition to the ECST grade of stenosis (RR 1.6; 95% CI 1.21-2.15), history of contralateral TIAs (RR 3.0; 95% CI 1.90-4.73) and creatinine in excess of 85 μmol/L (RR 2.1; 95% CI 1.23-3.65) were independent risk predictors. The combination of these three risk factors can identify a high-risk group (7.3% annual event rate and 4.3% annual stroke rate) and a low risk group (2.3% annual event rate and 0.7% annual stroke rate). Conclusions. Linearity between ECST percent stenosis and risk makes this method for grading stenosis more amenable to risk prediction without any transformation not only in clinical practice but also when multivariable analysis is to be used. Identification of additional risk factors provides a new approach to risk stratification and should help refine the indications for carotid endarterectomy. © 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

The impact of carotid plaque presence and morphology on mortality outcome in cardiological patients

BACKGROUND: Carotid plaque severity and morphology can affect cardiovascular prognosis. We evaluate both the importance of echographically assessed carotid artery plaque geometry and morphology as predictors of death in hospitalised cardiological patients. METHODS: 541 hospitalised patients admitted in a cardiological division (age = 66 ± 11 years, 411 men), have been studied through ultrasound Duplex carotid scan and successively followed-up for a median of 34 months. Echo evaluation assessed plaque severity and morphology (presence of heterogeneity and profile). RESULTS: 361 patients showed carotid stenosis (67% with <50% stenosis, 18% with 50–69% stenosis, 9% with >70% stenosis, 4% with near occlusion and 2% with total occlusion). During the follow-up period, there were 83 all-cause deaths (15% of the total population). Using Cox's proportional hazard model, age (RR 1.06, 95% CI 1.03–1.09, p = 0.000), ejection fraction > 50% (RR = 0.62, 95% CI 0.4–0.96, p = 0.03), treatment with statins (RR = 0.52, 95% CI 0.29–0.95, p = 0.34) and the presence of a heterogeneous plaque (RR 1.6; 95% CI, 1.2 to 2.14, p = 0.002) were independent predictors of death. Kaplan – Meier survival estimates have shown the best outcome in patients without plaque, intermediate in patients with homogeneous plaques and the worst outcome in patients with heterogeneous plaques (90% vs 79% vs 73%, p = 0.0001). CONCLUSION: In hospitalised cardiological patients, carotid plaque presence and morphology assessed by ultrasound are independent predictors of death

Asymptomatic internal carotid artery stenosis and cerebrovascular risk stratification

Background The purpose of this study was to determine the cerebrovascular risk stratification potential of baseline degree of stenosis, clinical features, and ultrasonic plaque characteristics in patients with asymptomatic internal carotid artery (ICA) stenosis. Methods This was a prospective, multicenter, cohort study of patients undergoing medical intervention for vascular disease. Hazard ratios for ICA stenosis, clinical features, and plaque texture features associated with ipsilateral cerebrovascular or retinal ischemic (CORI) events were calculated using proportional hazards models. Results A total of 1121 patients with 50% to 99% asymptomatic ICA stenosis in relation to the bulb (European Carotid Surgery Trial [ECST] method) were followed-up for 6 to 96 months (mean, 48). A total of 130 ipsilateral CORI events occurred. Severity of stenosis, age, systolic blood pressure, increased serum creatinine, smoking history of more than 10 pack-years, history of contralateral transient ischemic attacks (TIAs) or stroke, low grayscale median (GSM), increased plaque area, plaque types 1, 2, and 3, and the presence of discrete white areas (DWAs) without acoustic shadowing were associated with increased risk. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were constructed for predicted risk versus observed CORI events as a measure of model validity. The areas under the ROC curves for a model of stenosis alone, a model of stenosis combined with clinical features and a model of stenosis combined with clinical, and plaque features were 0.59 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.54-0.64), 0.66 (0.62-0.72), and 0.82 (0.78-0.86), respectively. In the last model, stenosis, history of contralateral TIAs or stroke, GSM, plaque area, and DWAs were independent predictors of ipsilateral CORI events. Combinations of these could stratify patients into different levels of risk for ipsilateral CORI and stroke, with predicted risk close to observed risk. Of the 923 patients with <70% stenosis, the predicted cumulative 5-year stroke rate was <5% in 495, 5% to 9.9% in 202, 10% to 19.9% in 142, and <20% in 84 patients. Conclusion Cerebrovascular risk stratification is possible using a combination of clinical and ultrasonic plaque features. These findings need to be validated in additional prospective studies of patients receiving optimal medical intervention alone. Copyright © 2010 by the Society for Vascular Surgery

The size of juxtaluminal hypoechoic area in ultrasound images of asymptomatic carotid plaques predicts the occurrence of stroke

Objective: To test the hypothesis that the size of a juxtaluminal black (hypoechoic) area (JBA) in ultrasound images of asymptomatic carotid artery plaques predicts future ipsilateral ischemic stroke. Methods: A JBA was defined as an area of pixels with a grayscale value &lt;25 adjacent to the lumen without a visible echogenic cap after image normalization. The size of a JBA was measured in the carotid plaque images of 1121 patients with asymptomatic carotid stenosis 50% to 99% in relation to the bulb (Asymptomatic Carotid Stenosis and Risk of Stroke study); the patients were followed for up to 8 years. Results: The JBA had a linear association with future stroke rate. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve was 0.816. Using Kaplan-Meier curves, the mean annual stroke rate was 0.4% in 706 patients with a JBA &lt;4 mm 2, 1.4% in 171 patients with a JBA 4 to 8 mm2, 3.2% in 46 patients with a JBA 8 to 10 mm2, and 5% in 198 patients with a JBA &gt;10 mm2 (P &lt;.001). In a Cox model with ipsilateral ischemic events (amaurosis fugax, transient ischemic attack [TIA], or stroke) as the dependent variable, the JBA (&lt;4 mm2, 4-8 mm2, &gt;8 mm2) was still significant after adjusting for other plaque features known to be associated with increased risk, including stenosis, grayscale median, presence of discrete white areas without acoustic shadowing indicating neovascularization, plaque area, and history of contralateral TIA or stroke. Plaque area and grayscale median were not significant. Using the significant variables (stenosis, discrete white areas without acoustic shadowing, JBA, and history of contralateral TIA or stroke), this model predicted the annual risk of stroke for each patient (range, 0.1%-10.0%). The average annual stroke risk was &lt;1% in 734 patients, 1% to 1.9% in 94 patients, 2% to 3.9% in 134 patients, 4% to 5.9% in 125 patients, and 6% to 10% in 34 patients. Conclusions: The size of a JBA is linearly related to the risk of stroke and can be used in risk stratification models. These findings need to be confirmed in future prospective studies or in the medical arm of randomized controlled studies in the presence of optimal medical therapy. In the meantime, the JBA may be used to select asymptomatic patients at high stroke risk for carotid endarterectomy and spare patients at low risk from an unnecessary operation