How profitable are FX technical trading rules?

This paper provides a comprehensive empirical investigation of the profitability of foreign exchange technical trading rules over the 1996:10?2015:06 period for 22 currencies quoted in US dollars. It reports evidence of profitability across a universe of 113,148 rules that include traditional moving average rules and those constructed on the basis of technical indicators such as Bollinger bands and the relative strength index. The best trading rules achieve annualised returns of up to 30%. The Step-SPA test (Hsu, Hsu, & Kuan, 2010) results show a sharp fall in the total number of rules that are robust to data snooping bias. Virtually no traditional rule is significant in the 2006?2015 sub-sample, in line with the adaptive markets hypothesis. By contrast, rules based on new technical indicator such as Bollinger Band and relative strength index rules remain robustly profitable across all currencies over the more recent sub-sample

Extreme UK rainfall and natural climate variability: combining models and data

The return periods for extreme events are estimated from observational datasets. Often those datasets are relatively short in comparison to timescales of natural climate variability; potentially introducing a systematic bias into the extreme estimates. Here we combine observations with global climate models to show that this bias is statistically insignificant for the case of extreme UK-wide rainfall estimates. This is unlikely to hold for other locations and spatial scales, yet the methodology we have developed provides a simple approach to quantify the bias for other cases

A GC-MS Based Analytical Method for Detection of Smoke Taint Associated Phenols in Smoke Affected Wines

Guaiacol and 4-methylguaiacol are routinely used as markers to determine extent of smoke impact on winegrapes and wines. However, smoke contains a complex group of compounds that may contribute to smoke taint in winegrapes and wine. In this study, a gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) based analytical method was developed and validated for the profiling of various smoke taint compounds in wines made from smoke affected fruit. A total of 22 analytes were separated and identified in the GC-MS chromatogram, all of which were selected to evaluate the samples and precision of the method. The GC-MS method showed good repeatability/reproducibility with intra- and inter-day relative standard deviation (RSD) of ±14%. The method was used to demonstrate that the smoked grapes and resultant wines, compared to unsmoked wines, contained significantly enhanced levels of guaiacol and 4-methylguaiacol along with other lignin derived phenols such as cresols and syringol. In smoke affected grapes and young wines, volatile phenols exist as glyco-conjugates (potential taint), which hydrolyse slowly leading to unacceptable levels of taint accumulation in wine during storage. The GC-MS method reported here, in conjunction with the optimised acid hydrolysis of phenol glycoconjugates, was successfully used to determine potential levels of smoke taint compounds in wines. Thus, the method can be used for screening smoke exposed grapes for potential taint levels prior to wine making. The results presented here highlight the need to include an array of smoke derived phenols to develop a complete picture of smoke taint and associated aroma in affected grapes and wines

Dietary supplementation of astaxanthin modulates skin color and liver antioxidant status of giant grouper (Epinephelus lanceolatus)

Giant grouper (Epinephelus lanceolatus) is an emerging aquaculture species in Southeast Asia and Australia with limited knowledge of its nutrient requirements and effects of supplements on its physiology. The present study investigated the effects of astaxanthin, vitamin E, and combinations on growth performance, body coloration, and the antioxidant status of juvenile giant grouper. Nine isonitrogenous (crude protein = 65 % ± 0.7 %) and isolipidic (crude lipid = 10 % ± 0.3 %) diets were formulated using a 3 × 3 factorial design, including three levels astaxanthin (0, 75, and 150 mg/kg) and vitamin E (0, 250, and 500 mg/kg), respectively. Each of the nine diets was fed to triplicate groups of 15 giant grouper (18.04 ± 0.92 g) for 30 days. Giant grouper fed the different diets exhibited no significant differences (p > 0.05) in specific growth rate (4.87 %/day - 5.21 %/day). However, dietary astaxanthin supplementation significantly enhanced the redness (a*), yellowness (b*b*), chroma, and hue values of the fin, regardless of the dose supplemented. Giant grouper fed astaxanthin at 75 and 150 mg/kg diet were more yellow and had three times higher b* values than fish fed non-supplemented diets. Further, total antioxidant capacity (TAC; mmol Trolox equivalent) in liver tissues was significantly increased in fish fed any of the astaxanthin-supplemented diets (p ≤ 0.05). In contrast, TAC levels were not affected by vitamin E supple-mentation. Malondialdehyde (MDA) levels were not significantly (p > 0.05) affected by astaxanthin or vitamin E. Findings from this study will contribute toward a better understanding of the dietary effects of antioxidant and pigment in juvenile giant grouper. We present that dietary treatment can modulate giant grouper pigmentation and may be used in the live fish trade. Further, this study contributes to narrowing the knowledge gap in formulating appropriate diets for giant grouper, which to date is fed diets formulated for other species

What is the evidence-base for atopic eczema treatments? A summary of published randomised controlled trials

Atopic eczema (AE) is a common chronic inflammatory skin condition. Whilst many AE treatment options are available, the evidence to support their efficacy varies in depth and quality. In 2000, an NIHR HTA systematic review identified and evaluated existing randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of AE treatments. To ensure continuing utility, the NIHR commissioned an update to the review. Here, we present an overview of the updated report and key findings. Systematic reviews and RCTs of AE treatments that included participants with AE (criteria based or diagnosed) were identified using: MEDLINE, EMBASE, CENTRAL, LILACS, AMED, CINAHL and Cochrane Skin Group Specialised Register (searched to August 31st 2013 (RCTs) and 31st December 2015 (systematic reviews)). Outcome measures included: symptoms, AE severity, quality-of-life, and adverse effects. Study quality was assessed using the Cochrane Collaboration risk of bias tool. Of the 287 new RCTs identified, only 22 (8%) were judged to be low risk of bias. When combined with RCTs from the previous review (n= 254), we found ‘reasonable evidence of benefit’ for corticosteroids, calcineurin inhibitors, Atopiclair™, ciclosporin, azathioprine, ultraviolet light and education programmes. Interventions with reasonable evidence of ‘no benefit’ included some dietary interventions, ion exchange water softeners, multiple daily applications of topical corticosteroids and antibiotic-containing corticosteroids for non-infected AE. Many common treatments lack evidence of efficacy and warrant further evaluation. The evidence base for AE is still hampered by poor trial design and reporting. The trials included in this review were used to establish the Global Resource of Eczema Trials (GREAT) Database

Economic evidence for the prevention and treatment of atopic eczema: a protocol for a systematic review

Background: Eczema, synonymous with atopic eczema or atopic dermatitis, is a chronic skin disease that has a similar impact on health-related quality of life as other chronic diseases. The proposed research aims to provide a comprehensive systematic assessment of the economic evidence base available to inform economic modelling and decision making on interventions to prevent and treat eczema at any stage of the life course. Whilst the Global Resource of Eczema Trials (GREAT) database collects together the effectiveness evidence for eczema there is currently no such systematic resource on the economics of eczema. It is important to gain an overview of the current state of the art of economic methods in the field of eczema in order to strengthen the economic evidence base further. Methods/design: The proposed study is a systematic review of the economic evidence surrounding interventions for the prevention and treatment of eczema. Relevant search terms will be used to search MEDLINE, EMBASE, Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, NHS Economic Evaluation Database, Health Technology Assessment, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, Econ Lit, Scopus, Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Registry and Web of Science in order to identify relevant evidence. To be eligible for inclusion studies will be primary empirical studies evaluating the cost, utility or full economic evaluation of interventions for preventing or treating eczema. Two reviewers will independently assess studies for eligibility and perform data abstraction. Evidence tables will be produced presenting details of study characteristics, costing methods, outcome methods and quality assessment. The methodological quality of studies will be assessed using accepted checklists. Discussion: The systematic review is being undertaken to identify the type of economic evidence available, summarise the results of the available economic evidence and critically appraise the quality of economic evidence currently available to inform future economic modelling and resource allocation decisions about interventions to prevent or treat eczema. We aim to use the review to offer guidance about how to gather economic evidence in studies of eczema and/or what further research is necessary in order to inform this

A scoping review of determinants of performance in dressage

As a first step in achieving an evidence-based classification system for the sport of Para Dressage, there is a clear need to define elite dressage performance. Previous studies have attempted to quantify performance with able-bodied riders using scientific methods; however, definitive measures have yet to be established for the horse and/or the rider. This may be, in part, due to the variety of movements and gaits that are found within a dressage test and also due to the complexity of the horse-rider partnership. The aim of this review is therefore to identify objective measurements of horse performance in dressage and the functional abilities of the rider that may influence them to achieve higher scores. Five databases (SportDiscuss, CINAHL, MEDLINE, EMBASE, VetMed) were systematically searched from 1980 to May 2018. Studies were included if they fulfilled the following criteria: (1) English language; (2) employ objective, quantitative outcome measures for describing equine and human performance in dressage; (3) describe objective measures of superior horse performance using between-subject comparisons and/or relating outcome measures to competitive scoring methods; (4) describe demands of dressage using objective physiological and/or biomechanical measures from human athletes and/or how these demands are translated into superior performance. In total, 773 articles were identified. Title and abstract screening resulted in 155 articles that met the eligibility criteria, 97 were excluded during the full screening of articles, leaving 58 included articles (14 horse, 44 rider) involving 311 equine and 584 able-bodied human participants. Mean ± sd (%) quality scores were 63.5 ± 15.3 and 72.7 ± 14.7 for the equine and human articles respectively. Significant objective measures of horse performance (n = 12 articles) were grouped into themes and separated by gait/movement. A range of temporal variables that indicated superior performance were found in all gaits/movements. For the rider, n = 5 articles reported variables that identified significant differences in skill level, which included the postural position and ROM of the rider’s pelvis, trunk, knee and head. The timing of rider pelvic and trunk motion in relation to the movement of the horse emerged as an important indicator of rider influence. As temporal variables in the horse are consistently linked to superior performance it could be surmised that better overall dressage performance requires minimal disruption from the rider whilst the horse maintains a specific gait/movement. Achieving the gait/movement in the first place depends upon the intrinsic characteristics of the horse, the level of training achieved and the ability of the rider to apply the correct aid. The information from this model will be used to develop an empirical study to test the relative strength of association between impairment and performance in able-bodied and Para Dressage riders

‘Building for the Future?’ Government and Industry Responses to the Challenges of Talent Management in China Following the GFC

China suffered minimal fallout from the global financial crisis due to its burgeoning economy and ‘socialism with Chinese characteristics’ political strategy. However, despite this, its industries face enormous human resource management (HRM) challenges associated with the country's rapid economic growth. Principal amongst these HRM challenges is the need to attract and retain crucial talent. It is likely that if Chinese industry is unsuccessful in these endeavours, the future economic growth of China may be stalled, resulting in more serious long-term outcomes. This paper explores these challenges together with some possible solutions and future research directions