Modelling shifts in the wage-price and unemployment-inflation relationships in Italy, Poland, and the UK

The relationship between wages, prices, productivity, inflation and unemployment in Italy, Poland, and the UK between the 1960s and the early 1990s is modelled as a cointegrated vector autoregression subject to regime shifts. For each of these economies there is clear evidence of a change in the underlying equilibria of this sector of the economy. Hypotheses concerning the similarity of the transition from a rigid to a flexible labour market are tested.

Valuing Farm Financial Information

Despite the merits of good farm record keeping, little is known about the value farmers place on their farm financial records. This study uses a willingness-to-accept experimental second price auction to elicit such values from farmers. Results indicate farm records are extremely valuable and that some diversity in values is explained by the characteristics of the records and farmers. We find that experimental auctions can be used to elicit values for extremely high-valued goods, and we demonstrate how they can be used to value a complex good comprised of many sub-components.Farm Management,

Forecasting Exchange Rates with a Large Bayesian VAR

Models based on economic theory have serious problems at forecasting exchange rates better than simple univariate driftless random walk models, especially at short horizons. Multivariate time series models suffer from the same problem. In this paper, we propose to forecast exchange rates with a large Bayesian VAR (BVAR), using a panel of 33 exchange rates vis-a-vis the US Dollar. Since exchange rates tend to co-move, the use of a large set of them can contain useful information for forecasting. In addition, we adopt a driftless random walk prior, so that cross-dynamics matter for forecasting only if there is strong evidence of them in the data. We produce forecasts for all the 33 exchange rates in the panel, and show that our model produces systematically better forecasts than a random walk for most of the countries, and at any forecast horizon, including at 1-step ahead.Exchange Rates, Forecasting, Bayesian VAR

Forecasting Government Bond Yields with Large Bayesian VARs

We propose a new approach to forecasting the term structure of interest rates, which allows to efficiently extract the information contained in a large panel of yields. In particular, we use a large Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR) with an optimal amount of shrinkage towards univariate AR models. Focusing on the U.S., we provide an extensive study on the forecasting performance of our proposed model relative to most of the existing alternative speci.cations. While most of the existing evidence focuses on statistical measures of forecast accuracy, we also evaluate the performance of the alternative forecasts when used within trading schemes or as a basis for portfolio allocation. We extensively check the robustness of our results via subsample analysis and via a data based Monte Carlo simulation. We .nd that: i) our proposed BVAR approach produces forecasts systematically more accurate than the random walk forecasts, though the gains are small; ii) some models beat the BVAR for a few selected maturities and forecast horizons, but they perform much worse than the BVAR in the remaining cases; iii) predictive gains with respect to the random walk have decreased over time; iv) di¤erent loss functions (i.e., "statistical" vs "economic") lead to di¤erent ranking of speci.c models; v) modelling time variation in term premia is important and useful for forecasting.Bayesian methods, Forecasting, Term Structure.

ENGLISH LANGUAGE TEACHING IN INDONESIA: A CONTINUOUS CHALLENGE IN EDUCATION AND CULTURAL DIVERSITY

The linguistic situations and conditions in Indonesia are quite complex by their own natures as more than seven hundred vernaculars with their various dialects from a great number of ethnic groups have been used as media of communication in the country. Accordingly, the success of English teaching in Indonesia cannot be freed from the students' cultural backgrounds, values, customs, and beliefs as well as the political standpoint of the government regarding this foreign language. English language teaching has then undergone more than four changes in its curriculum since the country's independence and brought no significant impact upon the learning outcomes. This study reveals the substantial unconstructive influence of the students' cultures and the non-conducive language environment affecting their language acquisition. Other aspects related to the teachers' performance and class preparations equally contribute to the ineffective classroom interactions. This study offers some practical suggestions to cope with those problems

Probing Rhetorical Structures Of Advanced Learners\u27 Expository Prose: A Data-based Approach

Logic, as the basis of rhetoric, always affects the way ideas, words, and evidence are assembled into one coherent structure. As rhetoric varies from culture to culture, it frequently brings about awkwardness, inappropriateness as well as immaturity of an expository prose if it does not meet the convention of organizational patterns and signals as expected by the readers having that rhetoric. A number of scholars have highlighted the importance and insights of contrastive rhetoric for the teaching of academic writing. This paper describes various rhetorical problems encountered by dozens of advanced Indonesian learners of English taking an academic writing class at AMINEF (American Indonesian Exchange Foundation) who plan to study in the USA. This paper concludes with the caveat that difficulties in adopting English rhetoric is not simply a linguistic problem but includes cultural understanding and awareness of its style. This paper offers insightful writing instructions to cope with the existing problems

Mapping Grammatical Errors In Speech Production Of Junior And Senior Students: A Case Study

Acquiring a foreign language requires a student to master the two elements of language, vocabulary and grammar, and the four language skills, listening, speaking, reading, and writing. Within each skill, these two language elements play a considerably essential role since they are seen as the very core aspects of language learning and that they are regarded inherent in each of these skills. Thus, vocabulary and grammatical aspects cannot be separated from the four language skills in language acquisition as without any one of which each skill is never acquired. Since the implementation of communicative approach in 1984 to the application of the competency-based language teaching in Indonesia, English programs at high schools have been meaning or message based rather than language USAge or form oriented. As a result, grammar learning has been significantly kept aside if not totally ignored in class interactions, and that communication success becomes the main target in instructional objectives. This study attempts to map grammatical errors the students make in their speech productions. It employs an interview technique for data collection by recording the conversations of twenty respondents - - junior and senior students - - on a selected issue of a particular topic and transcribing them in the form of written transcripts which are then to be analyzed from a grammatical perspective with the reference of grammar books. Those violating the grammatical norms will be considered as grammatical errors. It has been found out that learners\u27 grammatical errors are derived from two major causes - - translating concepts of L1 into L2 and their approximative system. This study concludes that the communicative classrooms which utilize the competency-based language teaching bring about a positive impact upon grammar learning. This research is significant as it gives a great contribution to structure and speaking class teachers, students, as well as to the department for policy making

Assessing international commonality in macroeconomic uncertainty and its effects

This paper uses a large vector autoregression to measure international macroeconomic uncertainty and its effects on major economies. We provide evidence of significant commonality in macroeconomic volatility, with one common factor driving strong comovement across economies and variables. We measure uncertainty and its effects with a large model in which the error volatilities feature a factor structure containing time‐varying global components and idiosyncratic components. Global uncertainty contemporaneously affects both the levels and volatilities of the included variables. Our new estimates of international macroeconomic uncertainty indicate that surprise increases in uncertainty reduce output and stock prices, adversely affect labor market conditions, and in some economies lead to an easing of monetary policy