570 research outputs found

    An inverse modeling approach to obtain P-T conditions of metamorphic stages involving garnet growth and resorption

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    This contribution presents an approach and a computer program (GRTMOD) for numerical simulation of garnet evolution based on compositions of successive growth zones in natural samples. For each garnet growth stage, a new local effective bulk composition is optimized, allowing for resorption and/or fractionation of previously crystallized garnet. The successive minimizations are performed using the Nelder-Mead algorithm; a heuristic search method. An automated strategy including two optimization stages and one refinement stage is described and tested. This program is used to calculate pressure-temperature (P-T) conditions of crystal growth as archived in garnet from the Sesia Zone (Western Alps). The compositional variability of successive growth zones is characterized using standardized X-ray maps and the program XMapTools. The model suggests that Permian garnet cores crystallized under granulite-facies conditions at T>800 °C and P = 6 kbar. During Alpine times, a first garnet rim grew at eclogite-facies conditions (650 °C, 16 kbar) at the expense of the garnet core. A second rim was added at lower P (∼11 kbar) and 630 °C. In total, garnet resorption is modeled to amount to ∼9 vol% during the Alpine evolution; this value is supported by our observations in X-ray compositional maps

    Adjusted Tornado Probabilities

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    Tornado occurrence rates computed from the available reports are biased low relative to the unknown true rates. To correct for this low bias, the authors demonstrate a method to estimate the annual probability of being struck by a tornado that uses the average report density estimated as a function of distance from nearest city/town center. The method is demonstrated on Kansas and then applied to 15 other tornado-prone states from Nebraska to Tennessee. States are ranked according to their adjusted tornado rate and comparisons are made with raw rates published elsewhere. The adjusted rates, expressed as return periods, arestates, including Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, and Oklahoma. The expected annual number of people exposed to tornadoes is highest for Illinois followed by Alabama and Indiana. For the four states with the highest tornado rates, exposure increases since 1980 are largest for Oklahoma (24%) and Alabama (23%)

    Nonrenewable Resources, Strategic Behavior and the Hotelling Rule: An Experiment

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    This study uses the methods of experimental economics to investigate possible causes for the failure of the Hotelling rule for nonrenewable resources. We argue that as long as resource stocks are large enough, producers may choose to (partially) ignore the dynamic component of their production decision, shifting production to the present and focusing more on strategic behavior. We experimentally vary stock size in a nonrenewable resource duopoly setting and find that producers with large stocks indeed pay significantly less attention to variables related to dynamic optimization,leading to a failure of the Hotelling rule
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