Automatic forecasting with a modified exponential smoothing state space framework

A new automatic forecasting procedure is proposed based on a recent exponential smoothing framework which incorporates a Box-Cox transformation and ARMA residual corrections. The procedure is complete with well-defined methods for initialization, estimation, likelihood evaluation, and analytical derivation of point and interval predictions under a Gaussian error assumption. The algorithm is examined extensively by applying it to single seasonal and non-seasonal time series from the M and the M3 competitions, and is shown to provide competitive out-of-sample forecast accuracy compared to the best methods in these competitions and to the traditional exponential smoothing framework. The proposed algorithm can be used as an alternative to existing automatic forecasting procedures in modeling single seasonal and non-seasonal time series. In addition, it provides the new option of automatic modeling of multiple seasonal time series which cannot be handled using any of the existing automatic forecasting procedures. The proposed automatic procedure is further illustrated by applying it to two multiple seasonal time series involving call center data and electricity demand data.Exponential smoothing, state space models, automatic forecasting, Box-Cox transformation, residual adjustment, multiple seasonality, time series

Forecasting time series with complex seasonal patterns using exponential smoothing

A new innovations state space modeling framework, incorporating Box-Cox transformations, Fourier series with time varying coefficients and ARMA error correction, is introduced for forecasting complex seasonal time series that cannot be handled using existing forecasting models. Such complex time series include time series with multiple seasonal periods, high frequency seasonality, non-integer seasonality and dual-calendar effects. Our new modelling framework provides an alternative to existing exponential smoothing models, and is shown to have many advantages. The methods for initialization and estimation, including likelihood evaluation, are presented, and analytical expressions for point forecasts and interval predictions under the assumption of Gaussian errors are derived, leading to a simple, comprehensible approach to forecasting complex seasonal time series. Our trigonometric formulation is also presented as a means of decomposing complex seasonal time series, which cannot be decomposed using any of the existing decomposition methods. The approach is useful in a broad range of applications, and we illustrate its versatility in three empirical studies where it demonstrates excellent forecasting performance over a range of prediction horizons. In addition, we show that our trigonometric decomposition leads to the identification and extraction of seasonal components, which are otherwise not apparent in the time series plot itself.Exponential smoothing, Fourier series, prediction intervals, seasonality, state space models, time series decomposition

Impact of Corporate Incentives of Finance Managers on Financial Performance of Public Listed Companies in Sri Lanka

In the context of improving financial performance of companies throughout the world, corporate incentives provided to finance managers with respect to enhanced employee performance is of paramount importance. However, this paper is based on the findings of public listed companies in Sri Lanka. Even though theories to satisfy and motivate employees through corporate incentives have been extensively studied, most researchers do have different views on major predictions on financial performance of listed companies. This paper aims to ascertain the adequacy and the level of corporate incentives of finance managers required to enhance financial performance of public listed companies in Sri Lanka. For the purpose of investigation, a quantitative study with the use of deductive method, using stratified random sampling technique consisting a sample of 200 Public Listed Companies out of a population of 306 was used. Both primary data sourced through questionnaires from the representative sample of the population and secondary data available in the annual reports of listed firms within last 5 years were used to conduct multiple correlation and regression analysis. The obtained results were relatively according to the literature developed in the study as expounded by Fredrick Herzberg under Two Factor Theory and also by Alderfer under ERG theory. The results indicated corporate incentives have a strong effect on financial performance and a strong relationship between corporate incentives with financial performance of listed firms. Corporate incentives in the context of factors of motivation were more effective than hygiene factors as explained by Herzberg and also by Alderfer which the theoretical framework was based upon in this study. This study recommended that public listed companies in the Colombo Stock Exchange should focus on intrinsic corporate incentives (factors of motivation) as emphasized by Herzberg than extrinsic corporate incentives (hygiene factors). This study implied that Human Resource practitioners, theorists, researchers and remuneration policy makers to consider requisite level of corporate incentives to formulate remuneration policies and procedures to mitigate, avoid and prevent discrepancies in incentive anomalies to motivate finance managers to gain successful financial growth. Keywords: Anomalies, Deductive Method, Financial Performance, Hygiene Factors, Sample Siz

Applying multidimensional computerized adaptive testing to the MSQOL-54: a simulation study

Background: The Multiple Sclerosis Quality of Life-54 (MSQOL-54) is one of the most commonly-used MS-specific health-related quality of life (HRQOL) measures. It is a multidimensional, MS-specific HRQOL inventory, which includes the generic SF-36 core items, supplemented with 18 MS-targeted items. Availability of an adaptive short version providing immediate item scoring may improve instrument usability and validity. However, multidimensional computerized adaptive testing (MCAT) has not been previously applied to MSQOL-54 items. We thus aimed to apply MCAT to the MSQOL-54 and assess its performance. Methods: Responses from a large international sample of 3669 MS patients were assessed. We calibrated 52 (of the 54) items using bifactor graded response model (10 group factors and one general HRQOL factor). Then, eight simulations were run with different termination criteria: standard errors (SE) for the general factor and group factors set to different values, and change in factor estimates from one item to the next set at < 0.01 for both the general and the group factors. Performance of the MCAT was assessed by the number of administered items, root mean square difference (RMSD), and correlation. Results: Eight items were removed due to local dependency. The simulation with SE set to 0.32 (general factor), and no SE thresholds (group factors) provided satisfactory performance: the median number of administered items was 24, RMSD was 0.32, and correlation was 0.94. Conclusions: Compared to the full-length MSQOL-54, the simulated MCAT required fewer items without losing precision for the general HRQOL factor. Further work is needed to add/integrate/revise MSQOL-54 items in order to make the calibration and MCAT performance efficient also on group factors, so that the MCAT version may be used in clinical practice and research

Petroleomic analysis of the treatment of naphthenic organics in oil sands process-affected water with buoyant photocatalysts

The final publication is available at Elsevier via https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2018.05.011 © 2018. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/The persistence of toxicity associated with the soluble naphthenic organic compounds (NOCs) of oil sands process-affected water (OSPW) implies that a treatment solution may be necessary to enable safe return of this water to the environment. Due to recent advances in high-resolution mass spectrometry (HRMS), the majority of the toxicity of OSPW is currently understood to derive from a subset of toxic classes, comprising only a minority of the total NOCs. Herein, oxidative treatment of OSPW with buoyant photocatalysts was evaluated under a petroleomics paradigm: chemical changes across acid-, base- and neutral-extractable organic fractions were tracked throughout the treatment with both positive and negative ion mode electrospray ionization (ESI) Orbitrap MS. Elimination of detected OS+ and NO+ classes of concern in the earliest stages of the treatment, along with preferential degradation of high carbon-numbered O2− acids, suggest that photocatalysis may detoxify OSPW with higher efficiency than previously thought. Application of petroleomic level analysis offers unprecedented insights into the treatment of petroleum impacted water, allowing reaction trends to be followed across multiple fractions and thousands of compounds simultaneously.Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of CanadaNSERC Vanier Canada Graduate ScholarshipOntario Graduate Scholarshi

Genomic prediction of coronary heart disease

Aims Genetics plays an important role in coronary heart disease (CHD) but the clinical utility of genomic risk scores (GRSs) relative to clinical risk scores, such as the Framingham Risk Score (FRS), is unclear. Our aim was to construct and externally validate a CHD GRS, in terms of lifetime CHD risk and relative to traditional clinical risk scores. Methods and results We generated a GRS of 49 310 SNPs based on a CARDIoGRAMplusC4D Consortium meta-analysis of CHD, then independently tested it using five prospective population cohorts (three FINRISK cohorts, combined n = 12 676, 757 incident CHD events; two Framingham Heart Study cohorts (FHS), combined n = 3406, 587 incident CHD events). The GRS was associated with incident CHD (FINRISK HR = 1.74, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.61-1.86 per S.D. of GRS; Framingham HR = 1.28, 95% CI 1.18-1.38), and was largely unchanged by adjustment for known risk factors, including family history. Integration of the GRS with the FRS or ACC/AHA13 scores improved the 10 years risk prediction (meta-analysis C-index: +1.5-1.6%, P = 60 years old (meta-analysis C-index: +4.6-5.1%, P <0.001). Importantly, the GRS captured substantially different trajectories of absolute risk, with men in the top 20% of attaining 10% cumulative CHD risk 12-18 y earlier than those in the bottom 20%. High genomic risk was partially compensated for by low systolic blood pressure, low cholesterol level, and non-smoking. Conclusions A GRS based on a large number of SNPs improves CHD risk prediction and encodes different trajectories of lifetime risk not captured by traditional clinical risk scores.Peer reviewe

Policy-relevant spatial indicators of urban liveability and sustainability : Scaling from local to global

[English] Urban liveability is a global priority for creating healthy, sustainable cities. Measurement of policy-relevant spatial indicators of the built and natural environment supports city planning at all levels of government. Analysis of their spatial distribution within cities, and impacts on individuals and communities, is crucial to ensure planning decisions are effective and equitable. This paper outlines challenges and lessons from a 5-year collaborative research program, scaling up a software workflow for calculating a composite indicator of urban liveability for residential address points across Melbourne, to Australia’s 21 largest cities, and further extension to 25 global cities in diverse contexts. [Chinese] 城市宜居性是创建健康、可持续城市的全球优先事项。对建筑和自然环境的政策相关空间指标的测量支持各级政府的城市规划。分析它们在城市中的空间分布，以及对个人和社区的影响，对于确保规划决策的有效性和公平性至关重要。本文概述了一个为期5年的合作研究项目所面临的挑战和经验教训，该项目将计算墨尔本住宅地址点的城市宜居性综合指标的软件工作流程扩大到澳大利亚21个最大的城市，并进一步扩展到25个不同背景的全球城市

Role of dexamethasone dosage in combination with 5-HT3 antagonists for prophylaxis of acute chemotherapy-induced nausea and vomiting

Dexamethasone (20 mg) or its equivalent in combination with 5-HT3 antagonists appears to be the gold-standard dose for antiemetic prophylaxis. Additional to concerns about the use of corticosteroids with respect to enhanced tumour growth or impaired killing of the tumour cells, there is evidence that high-dosage dexamethasone impairs the control of delayed nausea and emesis, whereas lower doses appear more beneficial. To come closer to the most adequate dose, we started a prospective, single-blind, randomized trial investigating additional dosage of 8 or 20 mg dexamethasone to tropisetron (Navoban), a 5-HT3 receptor antagonist, in cis-platinum-containing chemotherapy. After an interim analysis of 121 courses of chemotherapy in 69 patients, we have been unable to detect major differences between both treatment alternatives. High-dose dexamethasone (20 mg) had no advantage over medium-dose dexamethasone with respect to objective and subjective parameters of acute and delayed nausea and vomiting. In relation to concerns about the use of corticosteroids in non-haematological cancer chemotherapy, we suggest that 8 mg or its equivalent should be used in combination with 5-HT3 antagonists until further research proves otherwise. © 1999 Cancer Research Campaig

The Ligand Binding Domain of GCNF Is Not Required for Repression of Pluripotency Genes in Mouse Fetal Ovarian Germ Cells

In mice, successful development and reproduction require that all cells, including germ cells, transition from a pluripotent to a differentiated state. This transition is associated with silencing of the pluripotency genes Oct4 and Nanog. Interestingly, these genes are repressed at different developmental timepoints in germ and somatic cells. Ovarian germ cells maintain their expression until about embryonic day (E) 14.5, whereas somatic cells silence them much earlier, at about E8.0. In both somatic cells and embryonic stem cells, silencing of Oct4 and Nanog requires the nuclear receptor GCNF. However, expression of the Gcnf gene has not been investigated in fetal ovarian germ cells, and whether it is required for silencing Oct4 and Nanog in that context is not known. Here we demonstrate that Gcnf is expressed in fetal ovarian germ cells, peaking at E14.5, when Oct4 and Nanog are silenced. However, conditional ablation of the ligand-binding domain of Gcnf using a ubiquitous, tamoxifen-inducible Cre indicates that Gcnf is not required for the down-regulation of pluripotency genes in fetal ovarian germ cells, nor is it required for initiation of meiosis and oogenesis. These results suggest that the silencing of Oct4 and Nanog in germ cells occurs via a different mechanism from that operating in somatic cells during gastrulation.Howard Hughes Medical InstituteNational Institutes of Health (U.S.) (2R01HG00257-20)National Human Genome Research Institute (U.S.) (2R01HG00257-20