On the relevance of earnings components in valuation and forecasting

Pre-print also submitted to SSRN Archive. The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/ 10.1007/s11156-013-0347-yThis paper articulates the links between relevance of an earnings component in forecasting (abnormal) earnings and its relevance in valuation in a nonlinear framework. The analysis shows that forecasting relevance does not imply valuation relevance even though valuation irrelevance is implied by forecasting irrelevance. Firstly, I consider an accounting information system where earnings components "add up" to a fully informative earnings number. Secondly, I analyze two accounting systems where a "core" earnings component is the relevant earnings construct for valuation and the second earnings component is irrelevant but may be predictable and relevant in forecasting other accounting items. I find that dividend displacement effect on earnings and the dynamics of individual earnings components are critical in this analysis

A systematic review of interventions to increase awareness of mental health and well-being in athletes, coaches and officials

Full search for the psychinfo database. (DOCX 16 kb

The Influence of a Firms\u27 Business Strategy on the Downside Risk of Earnings, Accruals and Cash Flow

This study examines whether a firm\u27s business strategy is an underlying determinant of downside risk in accounting earnings and its components. Based on organizational theory we predict that firms following an innovative prospector strategy exhibit lower profitability tendencies than firms following a cost-oriented defender strategy. Further, we anticipate that these strategies are asymmetrically positioned towards environmental uncertainty, with defenders focusing their efforts to efficiency, cost control, and minimizing exposure to downside risk, whereas prospectors direct their resources to flexibility, innovation, and maximizing the growth potential through aggressive expansion to new product markets. We find that prospectors are indeed less profitable than defenders. We also demonstrate that prospectors have greater total and downside earnings risk. Finally, we decompose earnings into accruals and cash flow and show that the higher exposure of prospectors to earnings downside risk is driven by the cash flow component rather than the accrual component. Collectively, our results suggest that considering how strategy interacts with financial reporting attributes is a useful way for evaluating a firms\u27 risk profile

Temporal, seasonal and weather effects on cycle volume: an ecological study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Cycling has the potential to provide health, environmental and economic benefits but the level of cycling is very low in New Zealand and many other countries. Adverse weather is often cited as a reason why people do not cycle. This study investigated temporal and seasonal variability in cycle volume and its association with weather in Auckland, New Zealand's largest city.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Two datasets were used: automated cycle count data collected on Tamaki Drive in Auckland by using ZELT Inductive Loop Eco-counters and weather data (gust speed, rain, temperature, sunshine duration) available online from the National Climate Database. Analyses were undertaken using data collected over one year (1 January to 31 December 2009). Normalised cycle volumes were used in correlation and regression analyses to accommodate differences by hour of the day and day of the week and holiday.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In 2009, 220,043 bicycles were recorded at the site. There were significant differences in mean hourly cycle volumes by hour of the day, day type and month of the year (<it>p </it>< 0.0001). All weather variables significantly influenced hourly and daily cycle volumes (<it>p </it>< 0.0001). The cycle volume increased by 3.2% (hourly) and 2.6% (daily) for 1°C increase in temperature but decreased by 10.6% (hourly) and 1.5% (daily) for 1 mm increase in rainfall and by 1.4% (hourly) and 0.9% (daily) for 1 km/h increase in gust speed. The volume was 26.2% higher in an hour with sunshine compared with no sunshine, and increased by 2.5% for one hour increase in sunshine each day.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>There are temporal and seasonal variations in cycle volume in Auckland and weather significantly influences hour-to-hour and day-to-day variations in cycle volume. Our findings will help inform future cycling promotion activities in Auckland.</p

Clinical, Virologic, Immunologic Outcomes and Emerging HIV Drug Resistance Patterns in Children and Adolescents in Public ART Care in Zimbabwe.

To determine immunologic, virologic outcomes and drug resistance among children and adolescents receiving care during routine programmatic implementation in a low-income country.A cross-sectional evaluation with collection of clinical and laboratory data for children (0-<10 years) and adolescents (10-19 years) attending a public ART program in Harare providing care for pediatric patients since 2004, was conducted. Longitudinal data for each participant was obtained from the clinic based medical record.Data from 599 children and adolescents was evaluated. The participants presented to care with low CD4 cell count and CD4%, median baseline CD4% was lower in adolescents compared with children (11.0% vs. 15.0%, p<0.0001). The median age at ART initiation was 8.0 years (IQR 3.0, 12.0); median time on ART was 2.9 years (IQR 1.7, 4.5). On ART, median CD4% improved for all age groups but remained below 25%. Older age (≥ 5 years) at ART initiation was associated with severe stunting (HAZ <-2: 53.3% vs. 28.4%, p<0.0001). Virologic failure rate was 30.6% and associated with age at ART initiation. In children, nevirapine based ART regimen was associated with a 3-fold increased risk of failure (AOR: 3.5; 95% CI: 1.3, 9.1, p = 0.0180). Children (<10 y) on ART for ≥4 years had higher failure rates than those on ART for <4 years (39.6% vs. 23.9%, p = 0.0239). In those initiating ART as adolescents, each additional year in age above 10 years at the time of ART initiation (AOR 0.4 95%CI: 0.1, 0.9, p = 0.0324), and each additional year on ART (AOR 0.4, 95%CI 0.2, 0.9, p = 0.0379) were associated with decreased risk of virologic failure. Drug resistance was evident in 67.6% of sequenced virus isolates.During routine programmatic implementation of HIV care for children and adolescents, delayed age at ART initiation has long-term implications on immunologic recovery, growth and virologic outcomes