Persistence in Convergence

In this paper, we examine the convergence hypothesis using a long memory framework that allows for structural breaks and the non reliance on a benchmark country. We find that even though the long memory framework of analysis is much richer than the simple I(1)=I(0) alternative, a simple absolute divergence and rapid convergence dichotomy produced by the latter is sufficient to capture the behavior of the gaps in per capita GDP levels and growth rates results respectively. This is in contrast to the findings of Dufrénot, Mignon and Naccache (2009) who found strong evidence of long memory for output gaps. The speed of convergence captured by the estimated long memory parameter d, is explained by differences in physical and human capital as well as fiscal discipline characteristics of economic policies pursued by different countries.growth convergence, long memory

Persistence in Convergence

In this paper, we examine the convergence hypothesis using a long memory framework that allows for structural breaks and the non reliance on a benchmark country. We find that even though the long memory framework of analysis is much richer than the simple I(1)/I(0) alternative, a simple absolute divergence and rapid convergence dichotomy produced by the latter is sufficient to capture the behavior of the gaps in per capita GDP levels and growth rates results respectively. This is in contrast to the findings of Dufrénot, Mignon and Naccache (2009) who found strong evidence of long memory for output gaps. The speed of convergence captured by the estimated long memory parameter d, is explained by differences in physical and human capital as well as fiscal discipline characteristics of economic policies pursued by different countries.Growth Convergence, Long Memory

Robust Tests for Convergence Clubs

In many applications common in testing for convergence the number of cross-sectional units is large and the number of time periods are few. In these situations asymptotic tests based on an omnibus null hypothesis are characterised by a number of problems. In this paper we propose a multiple pairwise comparisons method based on an a recursive bootstrap to test for convergence with no prior information on the composition of convergence clubs. Monte Carlo simulations suggest that our bootstrap-based test performs well to correctly identify convergence clubs when compared with other similar tests that rely on asymptotic arguments. Across a potentially large number of regions, using both cross-country and regional data for the European Union we find that the size distortion which afflicts standard tests and results in a bias towards finnding less convergence, is ameliorated when we utilise our bootstrap test

Impact of opioid-free analgesia on pain severity and patient satisfaction after discharge from surgery: multispecialty, prospective cohort study in 25 countries

Background: Balancing opioid stewardship and the need for adequate analgesia following discharge after surgery is challenging. This study aimed to compare the outcomes for patients discharged with opioid versus opioid-free analgesia after common surgical procedures.Methods: This international, multicentre, prospective cohort study collected data from patients undergoing common acute and elective general surgical, urological, gynaecological, and orthopaedic procedures. The primary outcomes were patient-reported time in severe pain measured on a numerical analogue scale from 0 to 100% and patient-reported satisfaction with pain relief during the first week following discharge. Data were collected by in-hospital chart review and patient telephone interview 1 week after discharge.Results: The study recruited 4273 patients from 144 centres in 25 countries; 1311 patients (30.7%) were prescribed opioid analgesia at discharge. Patients reported being in severe pain for 10 (i.q.r. 1-30)% of the first week after discharge and rated satisfaction with analgesia as 90 (i.q.r. 80-100) of 100. After adjustment for confounders, opioid analgesia on discharge was independently associated with increased pain severity (risk ratio 1.52, 95% c.i. 1.31 to 1.76; P < 0.001) and re-presentation to healthcare providers owing to side-effects of medication (OR 2.38, 95% c.i. 1.36 to 4.17; P = 0.004), but not with satisfaction with analgesia (beta coefficient 0.92, 95% c.i. -1.52 to 3.36; P = 0.468) compared with opioid-free analgesia. Although opioid prescribing varied greatly between high-income and low- and middle-income countries, patient-reported outcomes did not.Conclusion: Opioid analgesia prescription on surgical discharge is associated with a higher risk of re-presentation owing to side-effects of medication and increased patient-reported pain, but not with changes in patient-reported satisfaction. Opioid-free discharge analgesia should be adopted routinely

Searching for the optimal level: Inflation and price variability in Turkey

This paper explores the relationship between inflation and relative price variability (RPV) in Turkey for the period 2004-2017 to shed further light on the issue with relatively recent data. For this purpose, we use monthly price data for 12 main item groups and 414 specific items thereof. Analyses show that RPV for the period of interest exhibits large fluctuations, being particularly salient in the categories of communications and food. Regarding the underlying functional form, semi-parametric estimation results indicate a U-shaped relationship between inflation and RPV, where the latter reaches its minimum at an inflation level close to 8%

The purchasing power parity hypothesis for a high inflation country: a re-examination of the case of Turkey

The long-run purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis is re-examined for Turkey and strong evidence on long-run PPP is provided by using standard multivariate cointegration techniques. It is argued that the refutation of PPP by Telatar and Kazdagli does not necessarily imply the failure of taking the non-linearity in real exchange rate adjustment into account, as proposed by Sarno, but it may be due to the use of univariate framework for testing PPP chosen by Telatar and Kazdagli. By using persistence profiles, half-life deviations from PPP are estimated as low as one and a half years. Since these estimates are substantially lower than those previously obtained in the literature, the analysis suggests that high inflation environment does not constitute a case for the PPP puzzle.