A price model to assess the inflationary effects of the European Regional Policy

Social Accounting Matrices (SAM) are databases that complete the information provided by the input-output tables. They study the intersectorial relationships of an economy, the behaviour of consumers, the government or the foreign sector, while being able to close the income flow of rent. In this work, we deal with the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) in Andalusia, a Spanish region classified as Objective 1 by the European Regional policy. We apply the Leontief model on the SAMs for 1990, 1995 and 1999 to get the gross output fall when we remove these regional funds. Furthermore, we develop a price model to assess the impact of this financial support on aggregate and sectorial prices.Social Accounting Matrix, Regional Accounting, Structural Analysis.

Structural Path Analysis: Applications to Structural Changes in the Andalusian economy (1990-1999)

Social Accounting Matrices (SAM) are an useful tool that enables to get extenser information than Input-Output analysis as far as they work not only with an economy´s intersectorial relations, but also with consumers' behaviour, government or foreign sector; reflecting the income flow of rent. In this paper, we use Social Accounting Matrices for Andalusia for years 1990, 1995 y 1999, that we got from previous works. With this information we use "path analysis" technique to obtain the main changes in the productive structure and demand in Andalusia for the last ten years. Those changes will be represented in a three-dimensional picture. We also want to know which are the sectors that have strongly contributed to regional economic growth. Finally we measure the influence of sectorial shocks on themselves and also on the other sectors of this regional economy. Keywords: social accounting matrix, regional accounting, structural analysis. JEL: C67, D57, R15.

Labour costs and external competitiveness of the Andalusian economy (2007-2014)

El objetivo de este artículo es analizar la evolución de la competitividad externa de la economía andaluza. Para ello se toman dos dimensiones principales de análisis: En primer lugar, se analiza la evolución de los costes laborales unitarios y su relación con el desempeño exportador andaluz a nivel agregado. En segundo lugar, se analizarán una serie de indicadores de la actuación tanto empresarial, como del sector público, en los ámbitos determinantes de la posición competitiva regional a nivel microeconómico. El análisis de la evolución seguida por las variables en nuestra economía se hará en comparación con diversas economías y regiones del entorno. Los resultados obtenidos apuntan a que a pesar de que los costes laborales han seguido una marcada tendencia a la baja, hasta el momento, la crisis no se ha convertido en una oportunidad para mejorar de manera sustancial el posicionamiento de la economía andaluza.The aim of this paper is to analyse the evolution of Andalusian economy’s external competitiveness. For that purpose, two main research dimensions are examined: first, the relationship between unit labour costs and Andalusia’s export performance at an aggregate level; second, indicators of both business, and public sector behaviour in the determinant areas of the regional competitive position at a microeconomic level. The analysis of the evolution of the variables in the economy will be carried out in comparison with several surrounding economies and regions. The results suggest that despite the strong downward trend followed by labour costs, at the moment, the crisis has not become an opportunity to substantially improve the positioning of the regional economy

Are there key sectors? : an appraisal using applied general equilibrium

An extension of the hypothetical extraction method to a general equilibrium setting is considered. This has the advantage of re-interpreting output changes as efficiency gains or losses, which may be of use in identifying "key" sectors in an interconnected economy. The categorization may be relevant for the evaluation of intersectoral synergies and for improving policy planning and orienting economic strategy. We argue that the standard measures based on gross outputs may not capture all of the relevant impacts and this is so because of some self-imposed modeling and accounting limitations. An economy-wide Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) approach provides a modeling platform that overcomes these limitations since it offers (i) a more comprehensive measure of linkages and (ii) an alternative way of accounting for linkages' relevance that is in closer accordance with the standard statistical magnitudes used in national or regional accounts

Validating policy induced economic change using sequential general equilibrium SAMs

Acknowledgments: First author to JRC/SVQ/2015/J.1/0038/NC European Commission; second author to SEJ-4546 from the Andalusian Regional Government and to MINECO ECO2012/35430; third author to MINECO ECO2014/52506R. All results, interpretations and opinions are the authors' only and should not be attributed to their academic institutions or financial supporters.We present a novel sequential approach that explores the capacity of Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models to track down policy-induced economic changes and their ability to generate contrastable data. We use an empirical Social accounting matrix (SAM) of the region of Andalusia, in the south of Spain, to construct an initial CGE model. This model is then perturbed with a set of policy shocks related to EU Structural Funds invested into Andalusia. These shocks are accompanied by some parameter adjustments that pick up the main external changes not explained by the model. We generate a sequence of model-produced virtual SAMs. We then compare the last virtual SAM in the sequence with a new available empirical SAM. This allows us to check relatedness, for the same year, between the model produced and the empirical SAMs. The results show a good fit to the empirical data, providing further support to the CGE modelling tool

Intra-Regional vs Extra-Regional Trade Liberalization in Central America

Although the State Members of the Central American Integration System (henceforth SICA2) trade very extensively with the USA, the current growth of their intra-regional exports is remarkable and prone to create more internal added value for the region. We use and compare a standard, perfectly competitive and an imperfectly competitive GTAP3 CGE model based on the GTAP 9 database, to assess the impact of different scenarios. Our simulations evaluate the elimination of the existing taxes and subsidies in 2011, both at intra-regional level and with USA. The results emphasize the preference by most of the SICA countries for the completion of the customs union, as opposed to the deepening of the current DR-CAFTA4 agreements

The Andalusian Tourism Sector during the Economic Crisis and its Impact on Regional Development

It is not common practice to assess tourism’s effects on regional development, although its benefits for host economies are widely known. This paper attempts to discern such activity’s role in a geographic setting by applying structural analysis techniques based on social accounting matrices (SAMs). This methodological approach is applied to the case of Andalusia during the period 2010-2014, encompassing both the financial crisis period and the apparent resurgence.The research aims to reflect on the andalusian economy from the perspective of tourism and know its impacts on the regional territory. The proposed methodology is applied to a region where tourism became more prominent during the financial crisis. The results indicate that tourism’s significance in the host economy is due its own particular behaviour and also to the performance of other economic sectors during the study period. Tourism has shown considerable carry-over capacity in the territory, although challenges have arisen in employment, demand and technological density aspects. All of them should be addressed so that tourism can provide a sustainable support for regional development. Tourism sector’s appeared as a strategic sector, partly due to its specific performance, though also to the other sectors’ performance, either declining industries such as construction or with lighter presence, as in the case of industrial activities. Tourism has also shown itself to be a pro-cyclical sector, with landmarks. Yet the tourism sector has shown proven resilience and a considerable ability to foster economic development in the territory.</p

Loyola Economic Outlook: Proyecciones macroeconómicas (Primavera 2018)

Informe de primavera de 2018 de Loyola Economic Outlook con las previsiones económicas a nivel internacional, español y andaluz

Analysis of the Impact of the European Structural Funds in Andalusia between 2000 and 2006 using the 2005 Social Accounting Matrix

After two decades during which the Autonomous Region of Andalusia has been receiving financing from the European Structural Funds with the objective of developing, through these investments, the economic sectors that can boost economic growth in the region, this paper proposes an analysis that will reveal the economic impact of the European funds obtained by Andalusia during the period 2000-2006. With this purpose, the Social Accounting Matrix for Andalusia in year 2005 and a linear multipliers model are used. This model will help identify the sectors that benefit the most from the transfer of income provided by these funds, and to show how these exogenous injections bring about an impact on the endogenous accounts. The results underscore the significant contribution of the European funds to the growth of the region during the period analysed (2000-2006).JRC.J.4-Agriculture and Life Sciences in the Econom

Análisis del cambio estructural de la economía andaluza a través de matrices de contabilidad social

The aim of this study is to analyze structural change in the andalusian economy as well as identifying key and strategic economic sectors from 1990 to 2005 and its evolution so in terms of economic importance as in terms of employment. This will use the information provided by social accounting matrices, 1990, 1005, 2000 and 2005 at regional level and it will apply classical detection methods like analysis of key sectors multipliers and multiplier product matrix or non-classical like the extraction method hypothetical. Besides in the work is calculated an index of similarity for the andalusian economy to study the structural change as a whole. The outcome obtained shows a static economy, with little structural change and oriented to sectors belonging to an economic cycle now sold out and with a big importance of the tertiary sector. Keywords: Input-Output analysis, key sectors, social account matrix, regional economy, multiplier analysis. Topic: Structural Change, Social Accounting Matrices, Sector Analysis.JRC.J.4-Agriculture and Life Sciences in the Econom