8,189 research outputs found
Bayesian Functional Data Analysis Using WinBUGS
We provide user friendly software for Bayesian analysis of functional data models using \pkg{WinBUGS}~1.4. The excellent properties of Bayesian analysis in this context are due to: (1) dimensionality reduction, which leads to low dimensional projection bases; (2) mixed model representation of functional models, which provides a modular approach to model extension; and (3) orthogonality of the principal component bases, which contributes to excellent chain convergence and mixing properties. Our paper provides one more, essential, reason for using Bayesian analysis for functional models: the existence of software.
Non-linear optimization for parameter estimation for flood forecasting
Floods are the response of a catchment area to
severe rainfall events. Each catchment will have
its unique response which is dependent on its own
characteristics and the temporal and spatial
distribution of the oncoming rainfall event. A non
linear optimization technique has been applied to
historical data for rainfall and river flows of the
Kakanui catchment in North Otago, New Zealand,
to estimate the parameters of a model based on
the transfer function concept. The non linear
optimization is based on Powell algorithm.
Powell algorithm has been widely used in the
literature, and it is more efficient and faster than
the Simplex method (Press et al., 1989)
Observed rainfall events at two locations in the
Kakanui catchment, along with the corresponding
observed flows of the river have been utilized to
estimate the transfer function which represents the
response of the Kakanui catchment to rainfall
events. An adjusted form of Philip’s equation for
infiltration was used to estimate the abstraction of
the rainfall event and obtain the effective rainfall
which will contribute to the river flow. Weighing
factors were assigned to each of the rainfall sites
to obtain the best fit between observed and
forecasted flows. Nine flood events were used for
the calibration process, while two events were
utilized for the validation of the derived model.
The model has 19 parameters for the transfer
function, 2 parameters for the hydrologic
abstractions model, and 2 parameters for the
weighing factors of the rainfall sites. This results
in a total of 23 parameters for the developed
model. The ratio of observed cumulative rainfall
at Clifton Falls to the corresponding rainfall at the
Dasher for historical events is not consistent, and
varies significantly from one event to another.
This indicates the high variability of the spatial
distribution of rainfall events over the Kakanui
catchment. As these rainfall events were used in
the model calibration, it was difficult to obtain the
correct transfer function without proper
accounting for the spatial distribution of rainfall over the whole watershed. However, the model,
in general, performed satisfactory, given the
difficulty in representing the spatial variability of
the rainfall events. The model was capable of
simulating the flood hydrographs of several
events which were incorporated in its calibration,
but did not perform well with others. The model
was able to simulate well the flows of a flood
event which was not included in its calibration.
Moreover, in applying the derived model for a
real case event which occurred most recently on
30 July 2007, the model was able to forecast very
closely the peak flow, but the whole flow
hydrograph was not forecasted as good
A Herschel/HIFI Legacy Survey of HF and H2O in the Galaxy: Probing Diffuse Molecular Cloud Chemistry
We combine Herschel observations of a total of 12 sources to construct the
most uniform survey of HF and H2O in our Galactic disk. Both molecules are
detected in absorption along all sight lines. The high spectral resolution of
the Heterodyne Instrument for the Far-Infrared (HIFI) allows us to compare the
HF and H2O distributions in 47 diffuse cloud components sampling the disk. We
find that the HF and H2O velocity distributions follow each other almost
perfectly and establish that HF and H2O probe the same gas-phase volume. Our
observations corroborate theoretical predictions that HF is a sensitive tracer
of H2 in diffuse clouds, down to molecular fractions of only a few percent.
Using HF to trace H2 in our sample, we find that the N(H2O)-to-N(HF) ratio
shows a narrow distribution with a median value of 1.51. Our results further
suggest that H2O might be used as a tracer of H2 -within a factor 2.5- in the
diffuse interstellar medium. We show that the measured factor of ~2.5 variation
around the median is driven by true local variations in the H2O abundance
relative to H2 throughout the disk. The latter variability allows us to test
our theoretical understanding of the chemistry of oxygen-bearing molecules in
the diffuse gas. We show that both gas-phase and grain-surface chemistry are
required to reproduce our H2O observations. This survey thus confirms that
grain surface reactions can play a significant role in the chemistry occurring
in the diffuse interstellar medium n_H < 1000 cm^-3.Comment: 53 pages; 12 figures, accepted for publication in ApJ main journa
Striations in the Taurus molecular cloud: Kelvin-Helmholtz instability or MHD waves?
The origin of striations aligned along the local magnetic field direction in
the translucent envelope of the Taurus molecular cloud is examined with new
observations of 12CO and 13CO J=2-1 emission obtained with the 10~m
submillimeter telescope of the Arizona Radio Observatory. These data identify a
periodic pattern of excess blue and redshifted emission that is responsible for
the striations. For both 12CO and 13CO, spatial variations of the J=2-1 to
J=1-0 line ratio are small and are not spatially correlated with the striation
locations. A medium comprised of unresolved CO emitting substructures (cells)
with a beam area filling factor less than unity at any velocity is required to
explain the average line ratios and brightness temperatures. We propose that
the striations result from the modulation of velocities and the beam filling
factor of the cells as a result of either the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability or
magnetosonic waves propagating through the envelope of the Taurus molecular
cloud. Both processes are likely common features in molecular clouds that are
sub-Alfvenic and may explain low column density, cirrus-like features similarly
aligned with the magnetic field observed throughout the interstellar medium in
far-infrared surveys of dust emission.Comment: 11 pages, 4 figures. Accepted for publication in MNRA
Bayesian Functional Data Analysis Using WinBUGS
We provide user friendly software for Bayesian analysis of functional data models using pkg{WinBUGS}~1.4. The excellent properties of Bayesian analysis in this context are due to: (1) dimensionality reduction, which leads to low dimensional projection bases; (2) mixed model representation of functional models, which provides a modular approach to model extension; and (3) orthogonality of the principal component bases, which contributes to excellent chain convergence and mixing properties. Our paper provides one more, essential, reason for using Bayesian analysis for functional models: the existence of software
Contaminant removal from enclosed atmospheres by regenerable adsorbents
A system for removing contaminants from spacecraft atmospheres was studied, which utilizes catalyst-impregnated activated carbon followed by in-situ regeneration by low-temperature catalytic oxidation of the adsorbed contaminants. Platinum was deposited on activated carbon by liquid phase impregnation with chloroplatinic acid, followed by drying and high-temperature reduction. Results were obtained for the seven selected spacecraft contaminants by means of three experimental test systems. The results indicate that the contaminants could be removed by oxidation with very little loss in adsorptive capacity. The advantages of a catalyst-impregnated carbon for oxidative regeneration are found to be significant enough to warrent its use
Molecular clouds and clumps in the Boston University-Five College Radio Astronomy Observatory Galactic Ring Survey
The Boston University-Five College Radio Astronomy Observatory (BU-FCRAO)
Galactic Ring Survey (GRS) of 13 CO (1-0) emission covers Galactic longitudes
18 deg < l < 55.7 deg and Galactic latitudes |b| <= 1 deg. Using the SEQUOIA
array on the FCRAO 14m telescope, the GRS fully sampled the 13 CO Galactic
emission (46 arcsec angular resolution on a 22 arcsec grid) and achieved a
spectral resolution of 0.21 km/s. Because the GRS uses 13 CO, an optically thin
tracer, rather than 12 CO, an optically thick tracer, the GRS allows a much
better determination of column density and also a cleaner separation of
velocity components along a line of sight. With this homogeneous, fully-sampled
survey of 13 CO, emission, we have identified 829 molecular clouds and 6124
clumps throughout the inner Galaxy using the CLUMPFIND algorithm. Here we
present details of the catalog and a preliminary analysis of the properties of
the molecular clouds and their clumps. Moreover, we compare clouds inside and
outside of the 5 kpc ring and find that clouds within the ring typically have
warmer temperatures, higher column densities, larger areas, and more clumps
compared to clouds located outside the ring. This is expected if these clouds
are actively forming stars. This catalog provides a useful tool for the study
of molecular clouds and their embedded young stellar objects.Comment: 29 pages. ApJ in pres
Ionized gas at the edge of the Central Molecular Zone
To determine the properties of the ionized gas at the edge of the CMZ near
Sgr E we observed a small portion of the edge of the CMZ near Sgr E with
spectrally resolved [C II] 158 micron and [N II] 205 micron fine structure
lines at six positions with the GREAT instrument on SOFIA and in [C II] using
Herschel HIFI on-the-fly strip maps. We use the [N II] spectra along with a
radiative transfer model to calculate the electron density of the gas and the
[C II] maps to illuminate the morphology of the ionized gas and model the
column density of CO-dark H2. We detect two [C II] and [N II] velocity
components, one along the line of sight to a CO molecular cloud at -207 km/s
associated with Sgr E and the other at -174 km/s outside the edge of another CO
cloud. From the [N II] emission we find that the average electron density is in
the range of about 5 to 25 cm{-3} for these features. This electron density is
much higher than that of the warm ionized medium in the disk. The column
density of the CO-dark H layer in the -207 km/s cloud is about 1-2X10{21}
cm{-2} in agreement with theoretical models. The CMZ extends further out in
Galactic radius by 7 to 14 pc in ionized gas than it does in molecular gas
traced by CO. The edge of the CMZ likely contains dense hot ionized gas
surrounding the neutral molecular material. The high fractional abundance of N+
and high electron density require an intense EUV field with a photon flux of
order 1e6 to 1e7 photons cm{-2} s{-1}, and/or efficient proton charge exchange
with nitrogen, at temperatures of order 1e4 K, and/or a large flux of X-rays.
Sgr E is a region of massive star formation which are a potential sources of
the EUV radiation that can ionize the gas. In addition X-ray sources and the
diffuse X-ray emission in the CMZ are candidates for ionizing nitrogen.Comment: 12 pages, 9 figure
A Search for 6.7 GHz Methanol Masers in M33
We report the negative results from a search for 6.7 GHz methanol masers in
the nearby spiral galaxy M33. We observed 14 GMCs in the central 4 kpc of the
Galaxy, and found 3 sigma upper limits to the flux density of ~9 mJy in
spectral channels having a velocity width of 0.069 km/s. By velocity shifting
and combining the spectra from the positions observed, we obtain an effective
3sigma upper limit on the average emission of ~1mJy in a 0.25 km/s channel.
These limits lie significantly below what we would expect based on our
estimates of the methanol maser luminosity function in the Milky Way. The most
likely explanation for the absence of detectable methanol masers appears to be
the metallicity of M33, which is modestly less than that of the Milky Way
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