Learning or Leaning: Persistent and Transitory Spillovers from FDI

Using firm-level data for Jordan, we estimate the extent to which growth spillovers from foreign direct investment (FDI) to local firms stem from persistent learning externalities (i.e., they endure even after foreign investment leaves as knowledge has been transferred to local firms) or from transitory effects (e.g., demand increases which evaporate following disinvestment). We find that they have a significant transitory nature, with employment and capital growth declining when FDI falls, particularly in downstream industries supplied by locals. This suggests that if FDI-attracting policies are intended to promote sustainable growth, it may be more effective to attract and retain FDI via long-term structural policies, for instance, through low corporate tax rates rather than temporary tax holidays or through policies that strengthen the domestic absorptive capacity and linkages between foreign and local firms. It also suggests that FDI-led growth can increase a country's vulnerability to adverse global shocks in that the productivity gains of domestic firms will be partly reversed with the disinvestment of multinational firms

Research of the alloying additives content in high-silver solders on their susceptibility to soldering process and basic performance properties

Copper and its alloys with steel, including stainless steel, are soldered using brazing materials CuAgZn and CuAg- ZnSn. They are used for making connections in heating, cooling and renewable energy sources (RES) devices. The elements used in the above-mentioned alloys affect wettability, castability, corrosion resistance, impact resistance, plasticity, stress resistance and also increase the melting point of the solder. The article presents the impact of the percentage of alloying additives covered by the EN ISO 17672 standard on performance and susceptibility to soldering brazing materials Ag44 and Ag40Sn

Risk, Financial Stability and FDI

All Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) involves risk. Supplementing the IB literature, we assess the effects of financial system risk on FDI trends. Specifically, we propose a new theoretical paradigm combining institutional risk aversion and institutional affinity, suggesting MNE-generated FDI will be sensitive to sovereign and bank-related risks. Employing a large panel of bilateral FDI holdings from 112 origin countries in the Eurozone, results show that financial stability in origin and host countries, matters for FDI. Policymakers in countries seeking to attract FDI should be attentive to both domestic conditions and the financing environment that MNEs encounter in their home countries

Media Reporting and Business Cycles: Empirical Evidence based on News Data

Recent literature suggests that news shocks could be an important driver of economic cycles. In this article, we use a direct measure of news sentiment derived from media reports. This allows us to examine whether innovations in the reporting tone correlate with changes in the assessment and expectations of the business situation as reported by rms in the German manufacturing sector. We nd that innovations in news reporting aect business expectations, even when conditioning on the current business situation and industrial production. The dynamics of the empirical model conrm theoretical predictions that news innovations aect real variables such as production via changes in expectations. Looking at individual sectors within manufacturing, we nd that macroeconomic news is at least as important for business expectations as sector-specic news. This is consistent with the existence of information complementarities across sectors

Deal or No Deal? Modelling the Impact of Brexit Uncertainty on UK Private Equity Activity

Given uncertainty in policy, particularly around Brexit, how do private equity (PE) firms investing in the UK behave? Analysing their response is vital for understanding the impact on investment per se and designing policy that limits uncertainty. Building on the recent work of Mike Wright and co‐authors, we explore the effect of uncertainty measures on UK PE activity and the channels that transmit uncertainty to the PE market. After developing hypotheses that link the ‘PE activity and uncertainty’ relation via a real options, interim risk or moral hazard channel, we employ a novel dataset on PE targets and non‐targets over the 2010–2019 period. We find that uncertainty, especially new measures closely aligned to Brexit, have negatively affected PE activity in the UK. Moreover, the transmission of such uncertainty occurs primarily through the real options channel and through greater uncertainty arising from prolonged interim periods of PE deals (i.e. the interim risk channel). Our results imply that the present and ongoing uncertainty in Brexit policy will continue to depress PE activity and by extension, investment and growth in the UK. Policymakers are urged to resolve such uncertainties

Media Reporting and Business Cycles: Empirical Evidence based on News Data

Recent literature suggests that news shocks could be an important driver of economic cycles. In this article, we use a direct measure of news sentiment derived from media reports. This allows us to examine whether innovations in the reporting tone correlate with changes in the assessment and expectations of the business situation as reported by firms in the German manufacturing sector. We fi nd that innovations in news reporting affect business expectations, even when conditioning on the current business situation and industrial production. The dynamics of the empirical model con rm theoretical predictions that news innovations affect real variables such as production via changes in expectations. Looking at individual sectors within manufacturing, we fi nd that macroeconomic news is at least as important for business expectations as sector-spefici c news. This is consistent with the existence of information complementarities across sectors

Eclipse studies of the dwarf-nova Ex Draconis

We report on high speed photometry of EX Dra in quiescence and in outburst. The analysis of the lightcurves indicates that the outbursts do not start in the outer disc regions. The disc expands during rise to maximum and shrinks during decline and along the quiescent period. At the end of two outbursts the system was seen to go through a phase of lower brightness, characterized by an out-of-eclipse level ~15 per cent lower than the typical quiescent level and by the fairly symmetric eclipse of a compact source at disc centre with little evidence of a bright spot at disc rim. New eclipse timings were measured and a revised ephemeris was derived. The residuals with respect to the linear ephemeris are well described by a sinusoid of amplitude 1.2 minutes and period \~4 years and are possibly related to a solar-like magnetic activity cycle in the secondary star. Eclipse phases of the compact central source and of the bright spot were used to derive the geometry of the binary. By constraining the gas stream trajectory to pass through the observed position of the bright spot we find q=0.72+/-0.06 and i= 85 +3/-2 degrees. The binary parameters were estimated by combining the measured mass ratio with the assumption that the secondary star obeys an empirical main sequence mass-radius relation. We find M_1= 0.75+/-0.15 M_sun and M_2= 0.54+/-0.10 M_sun. The white dwarf at disc centre is surrounded by an extended and variable atmosphere or boundary layer of at least 3 times its radius and a temperature of T ~28000 K. The fluxes at mid-eclipse yield an upper limit to the contribution of the secondary star and lead to a lower limit photometric parallax distance of D= 290+/-80 pc. The fluxes of the secondary star are well matched by those of a M0+/-2 main sequence star.Comment: submitted to MNRAS, 12 pages, 9 figures; coded with MNRAS latex styl

Updating Inflation Expectations

This paper investigates how inflation expectations evolve. In particular, we analyze the time-varying nature of the propensity to update expectations and its potential determinants. For this purpose we set up a flexible econometric model that tracks the formation of inflation expectations of consumers at each moment in time. We show that the propensity to update inflation expectations changes substantially over time and is related to the quantity and the quality of news