Cohort profile: the DASH (determinants of adolescent social well-being and health) study, an ethnically diverse cohort

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Diversification and limited information in the Kelly game

Financial markets, with their vast range of different investment opportunities, can be seen as a system of many different simultaneous games with diverse and often unknown levels of risk and reward. We introduce generalizations to the classic Kelly investment game [Kelly (1956)] that incorporates these features, and use them to investigate the influence of diversification and limited information on Kelly-optimal portfolios. In particular we present approximate formulas for optimizing diversified portfolios and exact results for optimal investment in unknown games where the only available information is past outcomes.Comment: 11 pages, 4 figure

Vector Theory of Gravity

We proposed a gravitation theory based on an analogy with electrodynamics on the basis of a vector field. For the first time, to calculate the basic gravitational effects in the framework of a vector theory of gravity, we use a Lagrangian written with gravitational radiation neglected and generalized to the case of ultra-relativistic speeds. This allows us to accurately calculate the values of all three major gravity experiments: the values of the perihelion shift of Mercury, the light deflection angle in the gravity field of the Sun and the value of radar echo delay. The calculated values coincide with the observed ones. It is shown that, in this theory, there exists a model of an expanding Universe.Comment: 9 page

Postnatal depression in a community-based study of women with polycystic ovary syndrome

Introduction: Women with polycystic ovary syndrome are susceptible to depression and anxiety and so may also be at risk for postnatal depression. This study investigates whether women with polycystic ovary syndrome have an elevated risk of postnatal depression. Material and methods: Cross‐sectional data for parous women (n = 566) were available from a birth cohort. Polycystic ovary syndrome was diagnosed using the Rotterdam criteria. Details of reproductive history, pregnancy, birth, and postnatal depression were obtained through structured interview. Comparisons were made between women with and without polycystic ovary syndrome using logistic regression analysis, including the investigation of interactions. Results: A positive but statistically non‐significant association was found between polycystic ovary syndrome and postnatal depression (odds ratio 1.6, 95% confidence interval 0.9–2.9). Compared with their counterparts, women with polycystic ovary syndrome were substantially more likely: to have difficulty conceiving (odds ratio 5.2, 95% confidence interval 2.9–9.4), to have conceived with medical assistance (odds ratio 11.6, 95% confidence interval 5.5–24.4), and to have pregnancy complications (gestational diabetes, pregnancy‐induced hypertension, or preeclampsia; odds ratio 2.0, 95% confidence interval 1.1–3.5). Where women with polycystic ovary syndrome had a history of miscarriage or conceived with medical assistance, the combination interacted (p = 0.06 and p < 0.05, respectively), with over half of such women having postnatal depression. Conclusions: Although women with polycystic ovary syndrome may not have an excess risk of postnatal depression overall, those who had suffered a miscarriage or required medical assistance to conceive were at substantially elevated risk. Findings point to vulnerability inherent in polycystic ovary syndrome being amplified, either by stressful experiences on the pathway to pregnancy/childbirth or by specific fertility treatment regimens

Intelligent Financial Fraud Detection Practices: An Investigation

Financial fraud is an issue with far reaching consequences in the finance industry, government, corporate sectors, and for ordinary consumers. Increasing dependence on new technologies such as cloud and mobile computing in recent years has compounded the problem. Traditional methods of detection involve extensive use of auditing, where a trained individual manually observes reports or transactions in an attempt to discover fraudulent behaviour. This method is not only time consuming, expensive and inaccurate, but in the age of big data it is also impractical. Not surprisingly, financial institutions have turned to automated processes using statistical and computational methods. This paper presents a comprehensive investigation on financial fraud detection practices using such data mining methods, with a particular focus on computational intelligence-based techniques. Classification of the practices based on key aspects such as detection algorithm used, fraud type investigated, and success rate have been covered. Issues and challenges associated with the current practices and potential future direction of research have also been identified.Comment: Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Security and Privacy in Communication Networks (SecureComm 2014

On a modified-Lorentz-transformation based gravity model confirming basic GRT experiments

Implementing Poincar\'e's `geometric conventionalism' a scalar Lorentz-covariant gravity model is obtained based on gravitationally modified Lorentz transformations (or GMLT). The modification essentially consists of an appropriate space-time and momentum-energy scaling ("normalization") relative to a nondynamical flat background geometry according to an isotropic, nonsingular gravitational `affecting' function Phi(r). Elimination of the gravitationally `unaffected' S_0 perspective by local composition of space-time GMLT recovers the local Minkowskian metric and thus preserves the invariance of the locally observed velocity of light. The associated energy-momentum GMLT provides a covariant Hamiltonian description for test particles and photons which, in a static gravitational field configuration, endorses the four `basic' experiments for testing General Relativity Theory: gravitational i) deflection of light, ii) precession of perihelia, iii) delay of radar echo, iv) shift of spectral lines. The model recovers the Lagrangian of the Lorentz-Poincar\'e gravity model by Torgny Sj\"odin and integrates elements of the precursor gravitational theories, with spatially Variable Speed of Light (VSL) by Einstein and Abraham, and gravitationally variable mass by Nordstr\"om.Comment: v1: 14 pages, extended version of conf. paper PIRT VIII, London, 2002. v2: section added on effective tensorial rank, references added, appendix added, WEP issue deleted, abstract and other parts rewritten, same results (to appear in Found. Phys.

Perinatal outcomes by mode of assisted conception and sub-fertility in an Australian data linkage cohort

BACKGROUND: Fertility treatment is associated with increased risk of major birth defects, which varies between in vitro fertilisation (IVF) and intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI), and is significantly reduced by embryo freezing. We therefore examined a range of additional perinatal outcomes for these exposures. METHODS: All patients in South Australia receiving assisted conception between Jan 1986-Dec 2002 were linked to the state-wide perinatal collection (all births/stillbirths ≥20 weeks gestation or 400 g birth weight, n = 306 995). We examined stillbirth, mean birth weight, low birth weight (90th percentile), preterm birth (32-<37 weeks, <32 weeks gestation), postterm birth (≥41 weeks gestation), Apgar <7 at 5 minutes and neonatal death. RESULTS: Relative to spontaneous conceptions, singletons from assisted conception were more likely to be stillborn (OR = 1.82, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 1.34-2.48), while survivors as a group were comprehensively disadvantaged at birth, including lower birth weight (-109 g, CI -129--89), very low birth weight (OR = 2.74, CI 2.19-3.43), very preterm birth (OR = 2.30, CI 1.82-2.90) and neonatal death (OR = 2.04, CI 1.27-3.26). Outcomes varied by type of assisted conception. Very low and low birth weight, very preterm and preterm birth, and neonatal death were markedly more common in singleton births from IVF and to a lesser degree, in births from ICSI. Using frozen-embryos eliminated all significant adverse outcomes associated with ICSI but not with IVF. However, frozen-embryo cycles were also associated with increased risk of macrosomia for IVF and ICSI singletons (OR = 1.36, CI 1.02-1.82; OR = 1.55, CI 1.05-2.28). Infertility status without treatment was also associated with adverse outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Births after assisted conception show an extensive range of compromised outcomes that vary by treatment modality, that are substantially reduced after embryo freezing, but which co-occur with an increased risk of macrosomia.Jennifer L. Marino, Vivienne M. Moore, Kristyn J. Willson, Alice Rumbold, Melissa J. Whitrow, Lynne C. Giles, Michael J. Davie

The Determinants of young Adult Social well-being and Health (DASH) study: diversity, psychosocial determinants and health.

Purpose: The Determinants of young Adult Social well-being and Health longitudinal study draws on life-course models to understand ethnic differences in health. A key hypothesis relates to the role of psychosocial factors in nurturing the health and well-being of ethnic minorities growing up in the UK. We report the effects of culturally patterned exposures in childhood. Methods: In 2002/2003, 6643 11–13 year olds in London, ~80 % ethnic minorities, participated in the baseline survey. In 2005/2006, 4782 were followed-up. In 2012–2014, 665 took part in a pilot follow-up aged 21–23 years, including 42 qualitative interviews. Measures of socioeconomic and psychosocial factors and health were collected. Results: Ethnic minority adolescents reported better mental health than White British, despite more adversity (e.g. economic disadvantage, racism). It is unclear what explains this resilience but findings support a role for cultural factors. Racism was an adverse influence on mental health, while family care and connectedness, religious involvement and ethnic diversity of friendships were protective. While mental health resilience was a feature throughout adolescence, a less positive picture emerged for cardio-respiratory health. Both, mental health and cultural factors played a role. These patterns largely endured in early 20s with family support reducing stressful transitions to adulthood. Education levels, however, signal potential for socio-economic parity across ethnic groups

The influence of parental smoking and family type on saliva cotinine in UK ethnic minority children: a cross sectional study

Background In the United Kingdom, there has been an increase in cigarette smoking in ethnic minority adults since the 1970s; in some groups levels are now similar to that of White British people. We aimed to examine the determinants of exposure to secondhand smoke in ethnic minority children. We hypothesised that exposure to secondhand smoke in children will vary across ethnic groups, but that the correlates of exposure would be similar to that of Whites. Methods The Determinants of Adolescent Social well-being and Health sample comprises 3468 White United Kingdom and ethnic minority (Black Caribbean, Black African, Indian, Pakistani, Bangladeshi) pupils aged 11-13 yrs. Outcome was saliva cotinine concentration. Explanatory variables collected by self-complete questionnaire included ethnicity, child reported household smoking and socio-economic circumstances. Data were analysed using linear regression models with a random intercept function. Results Ethnic minority children had lower saliva cotinine than Whites, partly explained by less smoking among parents. White and Black Caribbean children had higher cotinine levels if they lived in a household with a maternal smoker only, than with a paternal smoker only. Living in a lone compared to a dual parent household was associated with increased cotinine concentration of 45% (95%CI 5, 99%) in Whites, 27% (95%CI 5,53%) in Black Caribbeans and 21% (95%CI 1, 45%) in Black Africans after adjusting for household smoking status. Material disadvantage was a significant correlate only for White children (40% (95%CI 1, 94%) increase in cotinine in least compared to most advantaged group). Conclusions Ethnic minority children were less exposed to secondhand smoke than Whites, but the variations within groups were similarly patterned. These findings suggest that it is important not to be complacent about low smoking prevalence in some minority groups