Opium yield estimates in Afghanistan using remote sensing

Accurate estimates of opium production are essential for informing counter-narcotics policy in Afghanistan. The cultivated area of opium poppy is estimated remotely by interpretation or digital classification of very high resolution (VHR) satellite imagery at sample locations. Obtaining an accurate estimate of average yield is more challenging as poor security prevents access to a sufficient number of field locations to collect a representative sample. Previous work carried out in the UK developed a regression estimator methodology using the empirical relationship between the remotely sensed normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the yield indicator mature capsule volume. The application of the remote sensing approach was investigated in the context of the existing annual opium survey conducted by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime and Afghanistan’s Ministry of Counter Narcotics (UNODC/MCN) and indicated the potential for bias correction of yield estimates from a small targeted field sample. In this study we test the approach in Afghanistan using yield data and VHR satellite imagery collected by the UNODC/MCN surveys in 2013 and 2014. Field averaged measurements of capsule volume were compared to field averaged NDVI extracted using visual interpretation of poppy fields. The study compares the empirical relationships from the UK field trials with the Afghanistan data and discusses the challenges of developing an operational methodology for accurate opium yield estimation from the limited sample possible in Afghanistan

The application of time-series MODIS NDVI profiles for the acquisition of crop information across Afghanistan

We investigated and developed a prototype crop information system integrating 250 m Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data with other available remotely sensed imagery, field data, and knowledge as part of a wider project monitoring opium and cereal crops. NDVI profiles exhibited large geographical variations in timing, height, shape, and number of peaks, with characteristics determined by underlying crop mixes, growth cycles, and agricultural practices. MODIS pixels were typically bigger than the field sizes, but profiles were indicators of crop phenology as the growth stages of the main first-cycle crops (opium poppy and cereals) were in phase. Profiles were used to investigate crop rotations, areas of newly exploited agriculture, localized variation in land management, and environmental factors such as water availability and disease. Near-real-time tracking of the current years’ profile provided forecasts of crop growth stages, early warning of drought, and mapping of affected areas. Derived data products and bulletins provided timely crop information to the UK Government and other international stakeholders to assist the development of counter-narcotic policy, plan activity, and measure progress. Results show the potential for transferring these techniques to other agricultural systems

Survey and monitoring of opium poppy and wheat in Afghanistan: 2003-2009

An integrated application of remote-sensing technology was devised and applied in Afghanistan during 2003–2009 providing critical information on cereal and poppy cultivation and poppy eradication. The results influenced UK and international policy and counter-narcotics actions in Afghanistan

Optimizing treatment outcomes in adolescents with eating disorders: The potential role of cognitive behavioral therapy

Objective While family‐based treatment (FBT) is the leading psychological therapy for adolescents with eating disorders, it is not universally effective or suitable. This study considered the effectiveness of cognitive‐behavioral therapy for eating disorders (CBT‐ED) in adolescent cases where FBT was not fully effective or where it was not applicable to the individual case. Method A transdiagnostic case series of 54 adolescents with eating disorders (52% with anorexia nervosa; 31% with atypical anorexia nervosa) were offered CBT‐ED following previous treatment using FBT or following FBT being judged inappropriate. Pre‐post outcomes were assessed using standardized measures of eating attitudes and clinical impairment, and weight change was measured for the patients with anorexia nervosa. Results The rate of attrition was similar to that found in other CBT‐ED studies (38.9% of patients who started CBT‐ED; 59.3% of those offered CBT‐ED). The patients showed positive outcomes on all measures, regardless of whether they had previously been treated with FBT. Effect sizes were moderate to large. Severity and duration of the eating disorder were unrelated to outcomes. Discussion CBT‐ED merits consideration as a second‐line approach for adolescents with eating disorders when FBT has not been effective or could not be applied. There is no evidence that previous failure to benefit from FBT impairs outcome from subsequent CBT‐ED, and severity and duration of the eating disorder did not influence outcome. Treatment matching for adolescents with eating disorders might consider the role of previous treatment outcomes and family availability in determining optimum treatment strategies for individuals

Mapping the expansion of galamsey gold mines in the cocoa growing area of Ghana using optical remote sensing

Artisanal gold mining (galamsey) and cocoa farming are essential sources of income for local populations in Ghana. Unfortunately the former poses serious threats to the environment and human health, and conflicts with cocoa farming and other livelihoods. Timely and spatially referenced information on the extent of galamsey is needed to understand and limit the negative impacts of mining. To address this, we use multi-date UK-DMC2 satellite images to map the extent and expansion of galamsey from 2011 to 2015. We map the total area of galamsey in 2013 over the cocoa growing area, using k-means clustering on a cloud-free 2013 image with strong spectral contrast between galamsey and the surrounding vegetation. We also process a pair of hazy images from 2011 and 2015 with Multivariate Alteration Detection to map the 2011–2015 galamsey expansion in a subset, labelled the change area. We use a set of visually interpreted random sample points to compute bias-corrected area estimates. We also delineate an indicative impact zone of pollution proportional to the density of galamsey, assuming a maximum radius of 10 km. In the cocoa growing area of Ghana, the estimated total area of galamsey in 2013 is 27,839 ha with an impact zone of 551,496 ha. In the change area, galamsey has more than tripled between 2011 and 2015, resulting in 603 ha of direct encroachment into protected forest reserves. Assuming the same growth rate for the rest of the cocoa growing area, the total area of galamsey in 2015 is estimated at 43,879 ha. Galamsey is developing along most of the river network (Offin, Ankobra, Birim, Anum, Tano), with downstream pollution affecting both land and water

Evaluating management zone maps for variable rate fungicide application and selective harvest

Currently the majority of crop protection approaches are based on homogeneous rate fungicide application (HRFA) over the entire field area. With the increasing pressures on fungicide applications, associated with increased environmental impact and cost, an alternative approach based on variable rate fungicide application (VRFA) and selective harvest (SH) is needed. This study was undertaken to evaluate the economic viability of adopting VRSA and SH in winter wheat and the environmental benefit in terms of chemical reduction is also discussed. High resolution data of crop canopy properties, yellow rust, fusarium head blight (FHB), soil properties and yield were subjected to k-means cluster analysis to develop management zone (MZ) maps for one field in Bedfordshire, UK. Virtual cost-benefit analysis for VRFA was performed on three fungicide application timings, namely, T1 and T2 focused on yellow rust, and T3 focused on FHB. Cost-benefit analysis was also applied to SH, which assumed different selling prices between healthy and grain downgraded due to mycotoxin infection. Results showed that in this study VRFA allowed for fungicide reductions of 22.24% at T1 and T2 and 25.93% at T3 when compared to HRFA. SH reduced the risk of market rejection due to low quality and high mycotoxin content. Gross profit of combining SH and VRFA was £83.35 per hectare per year, divided into SH £48.04 ha−1, and VRFA £8.8 ha−1 for T1 and T2 and £17.7 ha−1 for T3. Total profit when considering soil and crop scanning costs would be £66.85 ha−1 per year, which is roughly equivalent to €80 or $90 ha−1 per year. This study was restricted to a single field but demonstrates the potential of fungicide reductions and economic viability of this MZ concept

Improved estimates of opium cultivation in Afghanistan using imagery-based stratification

The United Nations O ce on Drugs and Crime and the US Government make extensive use of remote sensing to quantify and monitor trends in Afghanistans illicit opium production. Cultivation gures from their independent annual surveys can vary because of systematic di erences in survey methodologies relating to spectral strati cation and the addition of a pixel bu er to the agricultural area. We investigated the e ect of strati cation and bu ering on area estimates of opium poppy using SPOT5 imagery covering the main opium cultivation area of Helmand province and sample data of poppy elds interpreted from very high resolution satellite imagery. The e ect of resolution was investigated by resampling the original 10 m pixels to 20, 30 and 60 m, representing the range of available imagery. The number of strata (1, 4, 8, 13, 23, 40) and sample fraction (0.2 to 2%) used in the estimate were also investigated. Strati cation reduced the con dence interval by improving the precision of estimates. Cultivation estimates of poppy using 40 spectral strata and a sample fraction of 1.1% had a similar precision to direct expansion estimates using a 2% sample fraction. Strati ed estimates were more robust to changes in sample size and distribution. The mapping of the agricultural area had a signi cant e ect on poppy cultivation estimates in Afghanistan, where the area of total agricultural production can vary signi cantly between years. The ndings of this research explain di erences in cultivation gures of the opium monitoring programmes in Afghanistan and recommendations can be applied to improve resource monitoring in other geographic areas

Image segmentation for improved consistency in image-interpretation of opium poppy

The image-interpretation of opium poppy crops from very high resolution satellite imagery forms part of the annual Afghanistan opium surveys conducted by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime and the United States Government. We tested the effect of generalization of field delineations on the final estimates of poppy cultivation using survey data from Helmand province in 2009 and an area frame sampling approach. The sample data was reinterpreted from pan-sharpened IKONOS scenes using two increasing levels of generalization consistent with observed practice. Samples were also generated from manual labelling of image segmentation and from a digital object classification. Generalization was found to bias the cultivation estimate between 6.6% and 13.9%, which is greater than the sample error for the highest level. Object classification of image-segmented samples increased the cultivation estimate by 30.2% because of systematic labelling error. Manual labelling of image-segmented samples gave a similar estimate to the original interpretation. The research demonstrates that small changes in poppy interpretation can result in systematic differences in final estimates that are not included within confidence intervals. Segmented parcels were similar to manually digitized fields and could provide increased consistency in field delineation at a reduced cost. The results are significant for Afghanistan’s opium monitoring programmes and other surveys where sample data are collected by remote sensing

Hyperspectral measurements of yellow rust and fusarium head blight in cereal crops: Part 1: Laboratory study

This paper assesses the potential use of a hyperspectral camera for measurement of yellow rust and fusarium head blight in wheat and barley canopy under laboratory conditions. Scanning of crop canopy in trays occurred between anthesis growth stage 60, and hard dough growth stage 87. Visual assessment was made at four levels, namely, at the head, at the flag leaves, at 2nd and 3rd leaves, and at the lower canopy. Partial least squares regression (PLSR) analyses were implemented separately on data captured at four growing stages to establish separate calibration models to predict the percentage coverage of yellow rust and fusarium head blight infection. Results showed that the standard deviation between 500 and 650 nm and the squared difference between 650 and 700 nm wavelengths were found to be significantly different between healthy and infected canopy particularly for yellow rust in both crops, whereas the effect of water-stress was generally found to be unimportant. The PLSR yellow rust models were of good prediction capability for 6 out of 8 growing stages, a very good prediction at early milk stage in wheat and a moderate prediction at the late milk development stage in barley. For fusarium, predictions were very good for seven growing stages and of good performance for anthesis growing stage in wheat, with best performing for the milk development stages. However, the root mean square error of predictions for yellow rust were almost half of those for fusarium, suggesting higher prediction accuracies for yellow rust measurement under laboratory conditions

Replacing human interpretation of agricultural land in Afghanistan with a deep convolutional neural network

Afghanistan’s annual opium survey relies upon time-consuming human interpretation of satellite images to map the area of potential poppy cultivation for statistical sample design. Deep Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) have shown ground-breaking performance for image classification tasks by encoding local contextual information, in some cases outperforming trained analysts. In this study, we investigate the development of a CNN to automate the classification of agriculture from medium-resolution satellite imagery as an alternative to manual interpretation. The residual network (ResNet50) CNN architecture was trained and validated for delineating the agricultural area using labelled multi-seasonal Disaster Monitoring Constellation (DMC) satellite imagery (32 m) of Helmand and Kandahar provinces. The effect of input image chip size, training sampling strategy, elevation data, and multi-seasonal imagery were investigated. The best-performing single-year classification used an input chip size of 33 × 33 pixels, a targeted sampling strategy and transfer learning, resulting in high overall accuracy (94%). The inclusion of elevation data marginally lowered performance (93%). Multi-seasonal classification achieved an overall accuracy of 89% using the previous two years’ data. Only 25% of the target year’s training samples were necessary to update the model to achieve >94% overall accuracy. A data-driven approach to automate agricultural mask production using CNNs is proposed to reduce the burden of human interpretation. The ability to continually update CNN models with new data has the potential to significantly improve automatic classification of vegetation across year