Evaluating Historical Episodes using Shock Decompositions in the DSGE Model

We present alternative methods for calculating and interpreting the influence of exogenous shocks on historical episodes within the context of DSGE models. We show analytically why different methods for calculating shock decompositions can generate conflicting interpretations of the same historical episodes. We illustrate this point using an extended version of Drautzburg and Uhlig's (2015) model of the U.S. economy, focusing on the periods 1964-1966, 1979-1987, 2007-2008 and 2016-2018. We argue that the best method for analyzing particular episodes is one which isolates the influence of the shocks during the period under consideration and where the initial conditions represent the system's distance from steady state at the beginning of the episode

Two Consumption Models For United States Casino Areas Utilizing Competition And Site Attribute Variables

In this study, multiple regression techniques were used to build two consumption models to better understand supply and demand influences on casino revenues. The initial model contained 15 independent variables and explained 97% of the variance in revenues. However, due to assumption violations, assessing the relative role of each independent variable proved to be problematic. Subsequently, a Reduced Variable Model was developed which explained 83% of the variance, and included six independent variables. As stand-alone prediction tools, the models do not yield useful revenue estimates, due to their large standard errors of the estimate, however, they do explain relative influences of both supply and demand measures on consumption (casino revenues). Several refinements were identified to improve the models\u27 value as revenue prediction tools. The study\u27s findings provide information which has led to a better understanding of casino revenues. The findings should also aid in identifying favorable regions nationally for new casino developments, as well as serve as a basis for subsequent gaming research

Satellite tracking and Earth dynamics research programs

Following an upgrading program, ranging performance capabilities of a satellite-tracking pulsed laser system were assessed in terms of range accuracy, range noise, data yield, and reliability. With a shorter laser pulse duration (2.5 to 3.0 NSEC) and a new analog pulse processing system, the systematic range errors were reduced to 3 to 5 cm and range noise was reduced to 5 to 16 cm and range noise was reduced to 5 to 15 cm on Starlette and BE-C, and 10 to 18 cm on LAGEOS. Maximum pulse repetition rate was increased to 30 pulses per minute and significant improvement was made in signal to noise ratio by installing a 3 A interference filter and by reducing the range gate window to 200 to 400 nsec. The solution to a problem involving leakage of a fraction of the laser oscillator pulse through the pulse chopper was outlined

SAO/NASA joint investigation of astronomical viewing quality at Mount Hopkins Observatory: 1969-1971

Quantitative measurements of the astronomical seeing conditions have been made with a stellar-image monitor system at the Mt. Hopkins Observatory in Arizona. The results of this joint SAO-NASA experiment indicate that for a 15-cm-diameter telescope, image motion is typically 1 arcsec or less and that intensity fluctuations due to scintillation have a coefficient of irradiance variance of less than 0.12 on the average. Correlations between seeing quality and local meteorological conditions were investigated. Local temperature fluctuations and temperature gradients were found to be indicators of image-motion conditions, while high-altitude-wind conditions were shown to be somewhat correlated with scintillation-spectrum bandwidth. The theoretical basis for the relationship of atmospheric turbulence to optical effects is discussed in some detail, along with a description of the equipment used in the experiment. General site-testing comments and applications of the seeing-test results are also included

Retrospective Study of Midazolam Protocol for Prehospital Behavioral Emergencies

Introduction: Agitated patients in the prehospital setting pose challenges for both patient care and emergency medical services (EMS) provider safety. Midazolam is frequently used to control agitation in the emergency department setting; however, limited data exist in the prehospital setting. We describe our experience treating patients with midazolam for behavioral emergencies in a large urban EMS system. We hypothesized that using midazolam for acute agitation leads to improved clinical conditions without causing significant clinical deterioration.Methods: We performed a retrospective review of EMS patient care reports following implementation of a behavioral emergencies protocol in a large urban EMS system from February 2014–June 2016. For acute agitation, paramedics administered midazolam 1 milligram (mg) intravenous (IV), 5 mg intramuscular (IM), or 5 mg intranasal (IN). Results were analyzed using descriptive statistics, Levene’s test for assessing variance among study groups, and t-test to evaluate effectiveness based on route.Results: In total, midazolam was administered 294 times to 257 patients. Median age was 30 (interquartile range 24–42) years, and 66.5% were male. Doses administered were 1 mg (7.1%) and 5 mg (92.9%). Routes were IM (52.0%), IN (40.8%), and IV (7.1%). A second dose was administered to 37 patients. In the majority of administrations, midazolam improved the patient’s condition (73.5%) with infrequent adverse events (3.4%). There was no significant difference between the effectiveness of IM and IN midazolam (71.0% vs 75.4%; p = 0.24).Conclusion: A midazolam protocol for prehospital agitation was associated with reduced agitation and a low rate of adverse events

Turning It Up To Eleven: Re-Evaluating the Role of Financial Frictions in the 2007–2008 Economic Crisis

We analyze the role of public and private financial frictions in the 2007–2008 economic crisis in the United States by extending the model of Drautzburg and Uhlig (2015) to eleven observable variables using data on all three interest rates in the model (policy, private and public). We also include a preference shock in the model, and present an alternative method for describing shock decompositions during and preceding the crisis designed to isolate the impact of the pre-crisis shocks. The estimated model produces an intuitive description of the evolution of the postwar U.S. economy overall and of the economic crisis at the end of the sample period. We find, in contrast to Drautzburg and Uhlig, that monetary and fiscal policy shocks played a significant role in mitigating the effects of the financial crisis

Hemodynamic progression of aortic stenosis in adults assessed by doppler echocardiography

AbstractDoppler echocardiography was used to follow the hemodynamic severity of aortic stenosis. First, the reproducibility of repeat recordings (mean interval 28 ± 36 days) of aortic jet velocity, made by two independent observers, was tested in 38 adults with aortic stenosis and unchanged clinical status. The two recordings of maximal velocity correlated well (r = 0.96, y = 0.88x + 0.46m/s, SEE = 0.21 m/s) with a mean coefficient of variation of 3.2%. Repeat recording of left ventricular outflow tract velocity by two independent observers in 10 other patients with aortic stenosis also correlated well (r = 0.94, y = 1.06x + 0.0 m/s, SEE = 0.06 m/s) with a mean coefficient of variation of 4.6%.Next, Doppler echocardiography was used to study 42 patients with aortic stenosis (mean age 66 years) over a follow-up interval of 6 to 43 months (mean 20). Maximal aortic jet velocity increased by 0.36 m/s per year (range −0.3 to +1.0 m/s per year). Mean transaortic pressure gradient changed by −7 to +23 (mean 8) mm Hg/year. Aortic valve area by the continuity equation (n = 25) decreased by 0 to 0.5 cm2/year (mean decrease 0.1 cm2/year). year patients had a worsening of stenosis (decrease in valve area) even though they had no change or a decrease in pressure gradient, because of concurrent decreases in transaortic volume flow.Twenty-one patients (50%) developed new or progressive symptoms of aortic stenosis necessitating valve replacement. These patients had a higher maximal aortic jet velocity at follow-up (4.5 versus 3.9 m/s, p < 0.01) and a greater rate of increase in mean pressure gradient (15 versus 7 mm Hg/year, p < 0.01) than did those who remained asymptomatic; however, there were no significant differences in age, follow-up interval or maximal aortic jet velocity at entry.It is concluded that Doppler echocardiographic measures of aortic stenosis severity are reproducible. The rate of change of transaortic pressure gradient varies among patients and the gradient may not increase even when stenosis severity worsens. Although stenosis severity progresses more rapidly in patients who develop symptoms requiring valve replacement, these patients cannot be identified at the initial study

Community Lost? Changes and Stratification in Perceived Neighborhood Social Cohesion among Families with Children

CC BY-NC 4.0Neighborhood social cohesion is strongly associated with health and well-being, especially among families with children. However, there is a widespread perception in the media, policy circles, and prominent research traditions that neighborhood social cohesion has decreased in recent decades for the United States as a whole and among certain subpopulations. Unfortunately, the empirical evidence for such trends is thin. In this study, we use data on families with children from two studies, the Survey of Income and Program Participation and the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study, to explore trends in neighborhood social cohesion and how individual- and neighborhood-level characteristics pattern disparities in the experience of neighborhood social cohesion. Counter to popular perceptions, our results show increases in neighborhood social cohesion over recent decades, at least for families with children. However, our results reveal persistent disparities in the experience of neighborhood social cohesion by individual and neighborhood characteristics.OA publication support through Carolina Consortium agreement with Sag