Predicting the long-term impact of antiretroviral therapy scale-up on population incidence of tuberculosis.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the impact of antiretroviral therapy (ART) on long-term population-level tuberculosis disease (TB) incidence in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: We used a mathematical model to consider the effect of different assumptions about life expectancy and TB risk during long-term ART under alternative scenarios for trends in population HIV incidence and ART coverage. RESULTS: All the scenarios we explored predicted that the widespread introduction of ART would initially reduce population-level TB incidence. However, many modelled scenarios projected a rebound in population-level TB incidence after around 20 years. This rebound was predicted to exceed the TB incidence present before ART scale-up if decreases in HIV incidence during the same period were not sufficiently rapid or if the protective effect of ART on TB was not sustained. Nevertheless, most scenarios predicted a reduction in the cumulative TB incidence when accompanied by a relative decline in HIV incidence of more than 10% each year. CONCLUSIONS: Despite short-term benefits of ART scale-up on population TB incidence in sub-Saharan Africa, longer-term projections raise the possibility of a rebound in TB incidence. This highlights the importance of sustaining good adherence and immunologic response to ART and, crucially, the need for effective HIV preventive interventions, including early widespread implementation of ART

Identification of losses to follow-up in a community-based antiretroviral therapy clinic in South Africa using a computerized pharmacy tracking system

BACKGROUND: High rates of loss to follow-up (LTFU) are undermining rapidly expanding antiretroviral treatment (ART) services in sub-Saharan Africa. The intelligent dispensing of ART (iDART) is an open-source electronic pharmacy system that provides an efficient means of generating lists of patients who have failed to pick-up medication. We determined the duration of pharmacy delay that optimally identified true LTFU. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cross-sectional study of a community-based ART cohort in Cape Town, South Africa. We used iDART to identify groups of patients known to be still enrolled in the cohort on the 1st of April 2008 that had failed to pick-up medication for periods of ≥ 6, ≥ 12, ≥ 18 and ≥ 24 weeks. We defined true LTFU as confirmed failure to pick up medication for 3 months since last attendance. We then assessed short-term and long-term outcomes using a prospectively maintained database and patient records. RESULTS: On the date of the survey, 2548 patients were registered as receiving ART but of these 85 patients (3.3%) were found to be true LTFU. The numbers of individuals (proportion of the cohort) identified by iDART as having failed to collect medication for periods of ≥ 6, ≥ 12, ≥ 18 and ≥ 24 weeks were 560 (22%), 194 (8%), 117 (5%) and 80 (3%), respectively. The sensitivities of these pharmacy delays for detecting true LTFU were 100%, 100%, 62.4% and 47.1%, respectively. The corresponding specificities were 80.7%, 95.6%, 97.4% and 98.4%. Thus, the optimal delay was ≥ 12 weeks since last attendance at this clinic (equivalent to 8 weeks since medication ran out). Pharmacy delays were also found to be significantly associated with LTFU and death one year later. CONCLUSIONS: The iDART electronic pharmacy system can be used to detect patients potentially LTFU and who require recall. Using a short a cut-off period was too non-specific for LTFU and would require the tracing of very large numbers of patients. Conversely prolonged delays were too insensitive. Of the periods assessed, a ≥ 12 weeks delay appeared optimal. This system requires prospective evaluation to further refine its utility

Treatment outcomes in HIV-infected adolescents attending a community-based antiretroviral therapy clinic in South Africa

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Very few data are available on treatment outcomes of adolescents living with HIV infection (whether perinatally acquired or sexually acquired) in sub-Saharan Africa. The present study therefore compared the treatment outcomes in adolescents with those of young adults at a public sector community-based ART programme in Cape Town, South Africa.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Treatment outcomes of adolescents (9-19 years) were compared with those of young adults (20-28 years), enrolled in a prospective cohort between September 2002 and June 2009. Kaplan-Meier estimates and Cox proportional hazard models were used to assess outcomes and determine associations with age, while adjusting for potential confounders. The treatment outcomes were mortality, loss to follow-up (LTFU), immunological response, virological suppression and virological failure.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>883 patients, including 65 adolescents (47 perinatally infected and 17 sexually infected) and 818 young adults, received ART. There was no difference in median baseline CD4 cell count between adolescents and young adults (133.5 vs 116 cells/μL; <it>p </it>= 0.31). Overall mortality rates in adolescents and young adults were 1.2 (0.3-4.8) and 3.1 (2.4-3.9) deaths per 100 person-years, respectively. Adolescents had lower rates of virological suppression (< 400 copies/mL) at 48 weeks (27.3% vs 63.1%; <it>p </it>< 0.001). Despite this, however, the median change in CD4 count from baseline at 48 weeks of ART was significantly greater for adolescents than young adults (373 vs 187 cells/μL; <it>p </it>= 0.0001). Treatment failure rates were 8.2 (4.6-14.4) and 5.0 (4.1-6.1) per 100 person-years in the two groups. In multivariate analyses, there was no significant difference in LTFU and mortality between age groups but increased risk in virological failure [AHR 2.06 (95% CI 1.11-3.81; <it>p </it>= 0.002)] in adolescents.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Despite lower virological suppression rates and higher rates of virological failure, immunological responses were nevertheless greater in adolescents than young adults whereas rates of mortality and LTFU were similar. Further studies to determine the reasons for poorer virological outcomes are needed.</p

Factors Predicting Discordant Virological and Immunological Responses to Antiretroviral Therapy in HIV-1 Clade C Infected Zulu/Xhosa in South Africa

Factors predicting suboptimal CD4 cell recovery have been studied in HIV clade-B infected US and European populations. It is, however, uncertain to what extent these results are applicable to HIV clade-C infected African populations. Multivariate analysis using logistic regression and longitudinal analyses using mixed models were employed to assess the impact of age, gender, baseline CD4 cell count, hemoglobin, body mass index (BMI), tuberculosis and other opportunistic co-infections, and frequencies of regimen change on CD4 cell recovery at 12 and 30 months and on overtime change in CD4 cells among 442 virologically suppressed South Africans. Despite adequate virological response 37% (95% CI:32%–42%) and 83% (95% CI:79%–86%) of patients on antiretroviral therapy failed to restore CD4 cell counts ≥200 cells/mm3 after 12 and ≥500 cells/mm3 after 30 months, respectively, in this South African cohort. Critical risk factors for inadequate recovery were older age (p = 0.001) and nadir CD4 cell count at ART initiation (p<0.0001), while concurrent TB co-infection, BMI, baseline hemoglobin, gender and antiretroviral regimen were not significant risk factors. These data suggest that greater efforts are needed to identify and treat HAART-eligible patients prior to severe CD4 cell decline or achievement of advanced age

Tuberculosis Incidence Rates during 8 Years of Follow-Up of an Antiretroviral Treatment Cohort in South Africa: Comparison with Rates in the Community

BACKGROUND: Although antiretroviral therapy (ART) is known to be associated with time-dependent reductions in tuberculosis (TB) incidence, the long-term impact of ART on incidence remains imprecisely defined due to limited duration of follow-up and incomplete CD4 cell count recovery in existing studies. We determined TB incidence in a South African ART cohort with up to 8 years of follow-up and stratified rates according to CD4 cell count recovery. We compared these rates with those of HIV-uninfected individuals living in the same community. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Prospectively collected clinical data on patients receiving ART in a community-based cohort in Cape Town were analysed. 1544 patients with a median follow-up of 5.0 years (IQR 2.4-5.8) were included in the analysis. 484 episodes of incident TB (73.6% culture-confirmed) were diagnosed in 424 patients during 6506 person-years (PYs) of follow-up. The TB incidence rate during the first year of ART was 12.4 (95% CI 10.8-14.4) cases/100PYs and decreased to 4.92 (95% CI 3.64-8.62) cases/100PYs between 5 and 8 years of ART. During person-time accrued within CD4 cell strata 0-100, 101-200, 201-300, 301-400, 401-500, 501-700 and ≥700 cells/µL, TB incidence rates (95% CI) were 25.5 (21.6-30.3), 11.2 (9.4-13.5), 7.9 (6.4-9.7), 5.0 (3.9-6.6), 5.1 (3.8-6.8), 4.1 (3.1-5.4) and 2.7 (1.7-4.5) cases/100PYs, respectively. Overall, 75% (95% CI 70.9-78.8) of TB episodes were recurrent cases. Updated CD4 cell count and viral load measurements were independently associated with long-term TB risk. TB rates during person-time accrued in the highest CD4 cell count stratum (>700 cells/µL) were 4.4-fold higher that the rate in HIV uninfected individuals living in the same community (2.7 versus 0.62 cases/100PYs; 95%CI 0.58-0.65). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: TB rates during long-term ART remained substantially greater than rates in the local HIV uninfected populations regardless of duration of ART or attainment of CD4 cell counts exceeding 700 cells/µL

Relationship between CD4 count and quality of life over time among HIV patients in Uganda: A cohort study

© 2015 Mwesigire et al. Background: Immunological markers (CD4 count) are used in developing countries to decide on initiation of antiretroviral therapy and monitor HIV/AIDS disease progression. HIV is an incurable chronic illness, making quality of life paramount. The direct relationship between quality of life and CD4 count is unclear. The purpose of this study is to determine the relationship between change in CD4 count and quality of life measures in a Ugandan cohort of people living with HIV. Methods: We prospectively assessed quality of life among 1274 HIV patients attending an HIV clinic within a national referral hospital over a period of 6months. Quality of life was measured using an objective measure, the Medical Outcomes Study HIV health survey summarized as Physical Health Score and Mental Health Score and a subjective measure, the Global Person Generated Index. Generalized estimating equations were used to analyze the data. The primary predictor variable was change in CD4 count, and the outcome was quality of life scores. We controlled for sociodemographic characteristics, clinical factors and behavioral factors. Twenty in-depth interviews were conducted to assess patient perception of quality of life and factors influencing quality of life. Results: Of the 1274 patients enrolled 1159 had CD4 count at baseline and six months and 586 (51%) received antiretroviral therapy. There was no association found between change in CD4 count and quality of life scores at univariate and multivariate analysis among the study participants whether on or not on antiretroviral therapy. Participants perceived quality of life as happiness and well-being, influenced by economic status, psychosocial factors, and health status. Conclusions: Clinicians and policy makers cannot rely on change in immunological markers to predict quality of life in this era of initiating antiretroviral therapy among relatively healthy patients. In addition to monitoring immunological markers, socioeconomic and psychosocial factors should be underscored in management of HIV patients

High-levels of acquired drug resistance in adult patients failing first-line antiretroviral therapy in a rural HIV treatment programme in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the frequency and patterns of acquired antiretroviral drug resistance in a rural primary health care programme in South Africa. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study nested within HIV treatment programme. METHODS: Adult (≥ 18 years) HIV-infected individuals initially treated with a first-line stavudine- or zidovudine-based antiretroviral therapy (ART) regimen and with evidence of virological failure (one viral load >1000 copies/ml) were enrolled from 17 rural primary health care clinics. Genotypic resistance testing was performed using the in-house SATuRN/Life Technologies system. Sequences were analysed and genotypic susceptibility scores (GSS) for standard second-line regimens were calculated using the Stanford HIVDB 6.0.5 algorithms. RESULTS: A total of 222 adults were successfully genotyped for HIV drug resistance between December 2010 and March 2012. The most common regimens at time of genotype were stavudine, lamivudine and efavirenz (51%); and stavudine, lamivudine and nevirapine (24%). Median duration of ART was 42 months (interquartile range (IQR) 32-53) and median duration of antiretroviral failure was 27 months (IQR 17-40). One hundred and ninety one (86%) had at least one drug resistance mutation. For 34 individuals (15%), the GSS for the standard second-line regimen was <2, suggesting a significantly compromised regimen. In univariate analysis, individuals with a prior nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI) substitution were more likely to have a GSS <2 than those on the same NRTIs throughout (odds ratio (OR) 5.70, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.60-12.49). CONCLUSIONS: There are high levels of drug resistance in adults with failure of first-line antiretroviral therapy in this rural primary health care programme. Standard second-line regimens could potentially have had reduced efficacy in about one in seven adults involved

Reproductive health and lifestyle factors associated with health-related quality of life among perinatally HIV-infected adolescents in Uganda

Background With increased survival of perinatally HIV - infected adolescents due to antiretroviral therapy (ART), the focus of HIV care has shifted to health-related quality of life (HRQoL) as a measure of disease progression, effects of ART co-morbidity and prognosis. We assessed factors associated with better HRQoL in perinatally HIV -infected adolescents in Uganda by determining the associations between sexual and reproductive health (SRH) or lifestyle experiences on HRQoL. Methods In a cross-sectional study, data on SRH, lifestyle experiences, socio demographic factors, communication with parents on sexuality and satisfaction of SRH services in ART clinics were collected from 614 HIV perinatally infected adolescents aged 10–19 using an interviewer-administered survey questionnaire. HRQoL data were collected using the Medical Outcomes Study HIV Health Survey instrument (MOS-HIV). Factors associated with better HRQoL were analysed using multiple logistic regression. Results The mean age was 16.2 ± 2.1 years, 362 (58.8 %) were females and 210 (34.2 %) were sexually active. Adolescents on ART were twice likely to present with better physical health (AOR = 2.07, 95 % CI: 1.24–3.46) and four times more likely to present with better mental health (AOR = 3.9, 95 % CI: 2.22–6.92) than those who were not on ART. There were no statistically significant associations between SRH (ever had sex, ever been pregnant, condom use, contraceptive use) or life style factors and physical health or mental health. Those with secondary or tertiary education were more likely to present with a better mental health (AOR = 5.3, 95 % CI: 1.86–15.41) compared those who had attained primary or no education. Participants who desired to have a child in future more likely (AOR 1.7, 95 % CI: 1.05–3.00) to present with a better mental health. Lack of communication with guardians on sexuality (AOR = 0.6, 95 % CI: 0.40–0.89), or dissatisfaction with SRH services (AOR 0.34, 95 % CI: 0.18–0.62) were associated with poorer mental health. Conclusion Among perinatally HIV-infected adolescents in Uganda, being on ART was associated with better physical and mental health while lack of communication with guardians on sexuality or dissatisfaction with SRH services was associated with poor mental health. Adolescents with pregnancy intentions were more likely to have a better mental health