Dynamical Elliptical Diagnostics of the Antarctic Polar Vortex

Elliptical diagnostics provide dynamical and climatological information about the behavior of the Arctic and Antarctic stratospheric polar vortices. Here Kida’s model, describing the evolution of a uniform vortex in a linear, but possibly unsteady, background flow, is used to interpret the observed evolution of the Antarctic vortex in late winter during 1999–2018. Kida’s model has oscillatory solutions that can undergo an amplitude bifurcation, which serves as a simple model for the onset of vortex-splitting stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs). A data assimilation method is used to find solutions of Kida’s equations consistent with the observations. A phase-plane analysis reveals large interannual variability in the amplitude of oscillations of the vortex. In 2002, the year of the only observed vortex-splitting Antarctic SSW, the system is found to cross a separatrix in phase space, associated with the SSW amplitude bifurcation, in late September. An output of the data assimilation is the linear background flow experienced by the vortex. The rotational component of this linear flow is consistent with the vortex being embedded in an anticyclonic background. The time-mean strain flow is weak but has a clear orientation, consistent with the presence of stationary forcing due to planetary-scale topography and land–sea contrast. The time-varying strain flow is comparatively large in magnitude, illustrating the relative importance of the planetary-scale component of the turbulent dynamics occurring at tropopause level. Unlike in the Northern Hemisphere, therefore, the direction of future Antarctic vortex splits will not necessarily align with the direction of the 2002 split

Core measures of inflation as predictors of total inflation

Two rationales offered for policymakers' focus on core measures of inflation as a guide to underlying inflation are that core inflation omits food and energy prices, which are thought to be more volatile than other components, and that core inflation is thought to be a better predictor of total inflation over time horizons of import to policymakers. The authors' investigation finds little support for either rationale. They find that food and energy prices are not the most volatile components of inflation and that depending on which inflation measure is used, core inflation is not necessarily the best predictor of total inflation. However, they do find that combining CPI and PCE inflation measures can lead to statistically significant more accurate forecasts of each inflation measure, suggesting that each measure includes independent information that can be exploited to yield better forecasts.Inflation (Finance)

Core measures of inflation as predictors of total inflation

Policymakers tend to focus on core inflation measures because they are thought to be better predictors of total inflation over time horizons of import to policymakers. The authors find little support for this assumption. While some measures of core inflation are less volatile than total inflation, core inflation is not necessarily the best predictor of total inflation. The relative forecasting performance of models using core inflation and those using only total inflation depends on the inflation measure and time horizon of the forecast. Unlike previous studies, the authors provide a measure of the statistical significance of the difference in forecast errors. ; Supersedes Working Paper 08-9.Inflation (Finance)

Power quality measurement and active harmonic power in 25 kV 50 Hz AC railway systems

Railway electrical networks rated at 25 kV 50 Hz are characterised by significant levels of voltage and current harmonics. These frequency components are also time varying in nature due to the movement of trains and changing operational modes. Processing techniques used to evaluate harmonic results, although standardised, are not explicitly designed for railway applications, and the smoothing effect that the standard aggregation algorithms have on the measured results is significant. This paper analyses the application accuracy of standardised power quality (PQ) measurement algorithms, when used to measure and evaluate harmonics in railway electrical networks. A shorter aggregation time interval is proposed for railway power quality measurement instruments, which offers more accurate estimated results and improved tracking of time varying phenomena. Harmonic active power present in railway electrical networks is also evaluated in order to quantify the impact it has on the energy accumulated by electrical energy meters installed on-board trains. Analysis performed on 12 train journeys shows significant levels of non-fundamental active power developed for short periods of time. As an energy meter will inadvertently absorb the financial cost of non-fundamental energy produced by other trains or other external power flows, results are provided to support recommendations for future standards to measure only fundamental frequency energy within train energy measurement meters

Perceptions of Licensure: A Survey of Michigan Genetic Counselors

This study by the Michigan Genetic Counselor Licensure Committee is the first known published documentation of genetic counselors’ beliefs and attitudes about licensure. The response rate from genetic counselors in Michigan was 66% (41/62). Ninety‐five percent of respondents were supportive of licensure. Respondents believed licensure would legitimize genetic counseling as a distinct allied healthcare profession (97.5%), increase the public’s protection (75%), and allow genetic counselors to practice independently (67%). While 45% felt licensure would increase counselor involvement in lawsuits, this did not impact licensure support (p = 0.744). Opinions were split regarding physician supervision and ordering tests. Even though 28% favored physician supervision, there was overwhelming support for genetic counselors performing some components of genetic testing (95%) and ordering some types of genetic tests (82%) independent of a physician. Use of this survey may be helpful in other states to assess genetic counselors’ interest in licensure and for drafting legislation.Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/147114/1/jgc40357.pd

Electrostatic Patch Effect in Cylindrical Geometry. I. Potential and Energy between Slightly Non-Coaxial Cylinders

We study the effect of any uneven voltage distribution on two close cylindrical conductors with parallel axes that are slightly shifted in the radial and by any length in the axial direction. The investigation is especially motivated by certain precision measurements, such as the Satellite Test of the Equivalence Principle (STEP). By energy conservation, the force can be found as the energy gradient in the vector of the shift, which requires determining potential distribution and energy in the gap. The boundary value problem for the potential is solved, and energy is thus found to the second order in the small transverse shift, and to lowest order in the gap to cylinder radius ratio. The energy consists of three parts: the usual capacitor part due to the uniform potential difference, the one coming from the interaction between the voltage patches and the uniform voltage difference, and the energy of patch interaction, entirely independent of the uniform voltage. Patch effect forces and torques in the cylindrical configuration are derived and analyzed in the next two parts of this work.Comment: 26 pages, 1 Figure. Submitted to Classical and Quantum Gravit

Clinical and cost-effectiveness of internal limiting membrane peeling for patients with idiopathic full thickness macular hole. Protocol for a Randomised Controlled Trial : FILMS (Full-thickness macular hole and Internal Limiting Membrane peeling Study)

Background: A full-thickness macular hole (FTMH) is a common retinal condition associated with impaired vision. Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) have demonstrated that surgery, by means of pars plana vitrectomy and post-operative intraocular tamponade with gas, is effective for stage 2, 3 and 4 FTMH. Internal limiting membrane (ILM) peeling has been introduced as an additional surgical manoeuvre to increase the success of the surgery; i.e. increase rates of hole closure and visual improvement. However, little robust evidence exists supporting the superiority of ILM peeling compared with no-peeling techniques. The purpose of FILMS (Fullthickness macular hole and Internal Limiting Membrane peeling Study) is to determine whether ILM peeling improves the visual function, the anatomical closure of FTMH, and the quality of life of patients affected by this disorder, and the cost-effectiveness of the surgery. Methods/Design: Patients with stage 2–3 idiopathic FTMH of less or equal than 18 months duration (based on symptoms reported by the participant) and with a visual acuity ≤ 20/40 in the study eye will be enrolled in this FILMS from eight sites across the UK and Ireland. Participants will be randomised to receive combined cataract surgery (phacoemulsification and intraocular lens implantation) and pars plana vitrectomy with postoperative intraocular tamponade with gas, with or without ILM peeling. The primary outcome is distance visual acuity at 6 months. Secondary outcomes include distance visual acuity at 3 and 24 months, near visual acuity at 3, 6, and 24 months, contrast sensitivity at 6 months, reading speed at 6 months, anatomical closure of the macular hole at each time point (1, 3, 6, and 24 months), health related quality of life (HRQOL) at six months, costs to the health service and the participant, incremental costs per quality adjusted life year (QALY) and adverse events. Discussion: FILMS will provide high quality evidence on the role of ILM peeling in FTMH surgery. Trial registration: This trial is registered with Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN number 33175422 and Clinical Trials.gov identifier NCT00286507.Chief Scientist Office, Scotland (project ref no CZH/4/235), NHS GrampianPeer reviewedPublisher PD