5 research outputs found
Paleoclimate Implications for Human-Made Climate Change
Paleoclimate data help us assess climate sensitivity and potential human-made
climate effects. We conclude that Earth in the warmest interglacial periods of
the past million years was less than 1{\deg}C warmer than in the Holocene.
Polar warmth in these interglacials and in the Pliocene does not imply that a
substantial cushion remains between today's climate and dangerous warming, but
rather that Earth is poised to experience strong amplifying polar feedbacks in
response to moderate global warming. Thus goals to limit human-made warming to
2{\deg}C are not sufficient - they are prescriptions for disaster. Ice sheet
disintegration is nonlinear, spurred by amplifying feedbacks. We suggest that
ice sheet mass loss, if warming continues unabated, will be characterized
better by a doubling time for mass loss rate than by a linear trend. Satellite
gravity data, though too brief to be conclusive, are consistent with a doubling
time of 10 years or less, implying the possibility of multi-meter sea level
rise this century. Observed accelerating ice sheet mass loss supports our
conclusion that Earth's temperature now exceeds the mean Holocene value. Rapid
reduction of fossil fuel emissions is required for humanity to succeed in
preserving a planet resembling the one on which civilization developed.Comment: 32 pages, 9 figures; final version accepted for publication in
"Climate Change at the Eve of the Second Decade of the Century: Inferences
from Paleoclimate and Regional Aspects: Proceedings of Milutin Milankovitch
130th Anniversary Symposium" (eds. Berger, Mesinger and Sijaci
Global temperature change
Global surface temperature has increased ≈0.2°C per decade in the past 30 years, similar to the warming rate predicted in the 1980s in initial global climate model simulations with transient greenhouse gas changes. Warming is larger in the Western Equatorial Pacific than in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific over the past century, and we suggest that the increased West–East temperature gradient may have increased the likelihood of strong El Niños, such as those of 1983 and 1998. Comparison of measured sea surface temperatures in the Western Pacific with paleoclimate data suggests that this critical ocean region, and probably the planet as a whole, is approximately as warm now as at the Holocene maximum and within ≈1°C of the maximum temperature of the past million years. We conclude that global warming of more than ≈1°C, relative to 2000, will constitute “dangerous” climate change as judged from likely effects on sea level and extermination of species