A stochastic model for multivariate surveillance of infectious diseases

We describe a stochastic model based on a branching process for analyzing surveillance data of infectious diseases that allows to make forecasts of the future development of the epidemic. The model is based on a Poisson branching process with immigration with additional adjustment for possible overdispersion. An extension to a space-time model for the multivariate case is described. The model is estimated in a Bayesian context using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques. We illustrate the applicability of the model through analyses of simulated and real data

Wireless distance estimation with low-power standard components in wireless sensor nodes

In the context of increasing use of moving wireless sensor nodes the interest in localizing these nodes in their application environment is strongly rising. For many applications, it is necessary to know the exact position of the nodes in two- or three-dimensional space. Commonly used nodes use state-of-the-art transceivers like the CC430 from Texas Instruments with integrated signal strength measurement for this purpose. This has the disadvantage, that the signal strength measurement is strongly dependent on the orientation of the node through the antennas inhomogeneous radiation pattern as well as it has a small accuracy on long ranges. Also, the nodes overall attenuation and output power has to be calibrated and interference and multipath effects appear in closed environments. Another possibility to trilaterate the position of a sensor node is the time of flight measurement. This has the advantage, that the position can also be estimated on long ranges, where signal strength methods give only poor accuracy. In this paper we present an investigation of the suitability of the state-of-the-art transceiver CC430 for a system based on time of flight methods and give an overview of the optimal settings under various circumstances for the in-field application. For this investigation, the systematic and statistical errors in the time of flight measurements with the CC430 have been investigated under a multitude of parameters. Our basic system does not use any additional components but only the given standard hardware, which can be found on the Texas Instruments evaluation board for a CC430. Thus, it can be implemented on already existent sensor node networks by a simple software upgrade.Comment: 8 pages, Proceedings of the 14th Mechatronics Forum International Conference, Mechatronics 201

A graph arising in the Geometry of Numbers

The parametric geometry of numbers has allowed to visualize the simultaneous approximation properties of a collection of real numbers through the combined graph of the related successive minima functions. Several inequalities among classical exponents of simultaneous approximation can be guessed by a study of these graphs; in particular the so called regular graph is of major importance as it provides an extremal case for some of these inequalities. The aim of this paper is to define and construct an analogue of the regular graph in the case of weighted simultaneous approximation.Comment: 8 pages, 2 figure

Qubit-Initialisation and Readout with Finite Coherent Amplitudes in Cavity QED

We consider a unitary transfer of an arbitrary state of a two-level atomic qubit in a cavity to the finite amplitude coherent state cavity field. Such transfer can be used to either provide an effective readout measurement on the atom by a subsequent measurement on the light field or as a method for initializing a fixed atomic state - a so-called "attractor state", studied previously for the case of an infinitely strong cavity field. We show that with a suitable adjustment of the coherent amplitude and evolution time the qubit transfers all its information to the field, attaining a selected state of high purity irrespectively of the initial state.Comment: 6 pages, 4 figure

A statistical framework for the analysis of multivariate infectious disease surveillance data

A framework for the statistical analysis of counts from infectious disease surveillance databases is proposed. In its simplest form, the model can be seen as a Poisson branching process model with immigration. Extensions to include seasonal effects, time trends and overdispersion are outlined. The model is shown to provide an adequate fit and reliable one-step-ahead prediction intervals for a typical infectious disease surveillance time series. Furthermore, a multivariate formulation is proposed, which is well suited to capture space-time interactions caused by the spatial spread of a disease over time. Analyses of uni- and multivariate times series on several infectious diseases are described. All analyses have been done using general optimization routines where ML estimates and corresponding standard errors are readily available

Gravity wave momentum flux in the lower stratosphere over convection

This work describes a method for estimating vertical fluxes of horizontal momentum carried by short horizontal scale gravity waves (lambda(sub x) = 10-100 km) using aircraft measured winds in the lower stratosphere. We utilize in situ wind vector and pressure altitude measurements provided by the Meteorological Measurement System (MMS) on board the ER-2 aircraft to compute the momentum flux vectors at the flight level above deep convection during the tropical experiment of the Stratosphere Troposphere Exchange Project (STEP-Tropical). Data from Flight 9 are presented here for illustration. The vertical flux of horizontal momentum these observations points in opposite directions on either side of the location of a strong convective updraft in the cloud shield. This property of internal gravity waves propagating from a central source compares favorably with previously described model results

Supernova explosions and the birth of neutron stars

We report here on recent progress in understanding the birth conditions of neutron stars and the way how supernovae explode. More sophisticated numerical models have led to the discovery of new phenomena in the supernova core, for example a generic hydrodynamic instability of the stagnant supernova shock against low-mode nonradial deformation and the excitation of gravity-wave activity in the surface and core of the nascent neutron star. Both can have supportive or decisive influence on the inauguration of the explosion, the former by improving the conditions for energy deposition by neutrino heating in the postshock gas, the latter by supplying the developing blast with a flux of acoustic power that adds to the energy transfer by neutrinos. While recent two-dimensional models suggest that the neutrino-driven mechanism may be viable for stars from about 8 solar masses to at least 15 solar masses, acoustic energy input has been advocated as an alternative if neutrino heating fails. Magnetohydrodynamic effects constitute another way to trigger explosions in connection with the collapse of sufficiently rapidly rotating stellar cores, perhaps linked to the birth of magnetars. The global explosion asymmetries seen in the recent simulations offer an explanation of even the highest measured kick velocities of young neutron stars.Comment: 10 pages, 8 figures, 19 ps files; to be published in Proc. of Conf. "40 Years of Pulsars: Millisecond Pulsars, Magnetars, and More", August 12-17, 2007, McGill Univ., Montreal, Canada; high-resolution images can be obtained upon request; incorrect panel in fig.8 replace