Demography and Inflation: An International Study

Changes in the relative share of different age groups in the population may present inflationary, disinflationary or even deflationary tendencies. We find evidence that increases in the share of the very old (age 80 and older) may be associated with deflation. The analysis is based on an international dataset over a long time period. Classifying age groups into young, working, younger old and older old, we find that the shares of the young and the younger old groups are inflationary, while those of the working group disinflationary, and those of the very old group seemingly deflationary

Author Correction: Newly initiated carbon stock, organic soil accumulation patterns and main driving factors in the High Arctic Svalbard, Norway

The original version of this Article contained errors in Figure 2 and 4, where incorrect versions of these figures were published. The original Figure 2 and 4 and their accompanying legends appear below. The original Article has been corrected

Aromaticity in a Surface Deposited Cluster: Pd4_4 on TiO2_2 (110)

We report the presence of \sigma-aromaticity in a surface deposited cluster, Pd$_4$ on TiO$_2$ (110). In the gas phase, Pd$_4$ adopts a tetrahedral structure. However, surface binding promotes a flat, \sigma-aromatic cluster. This is the first time aromaticity is found in surface deposited clusters. Systems of this type emerge as a promising class of catalyst, and so realization of aromaticity in them may help to rationalize their reactivity and catalytic properties, as a function of cluster size and composition.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figure

Optimizing time-series forecasts for inflation and interest rates using simulation and model averaging

Motivated by economic-theory concepts – the Fisher hypothesis and the theory of the term structure – we consider a small set of simple bivariate closed-loop time-series models for the prediction of price inflation and of long- and short-term interest rates. The set includes vector autoregressions (VAR) in levels and in differences, a cointegrated VAR and a non-linear VAR with threshold cointegration based on data from Germany, Japan, UK and the US. Following a traditional comparative evaluation of predictive accuracy, we subject all structures to a mutual validation using parametric bootstrapping. Ultimately, we utilize the recently developed technique of Mallows model averaging to explore the potential of improving upon the predictions through combinations. While the simulations confirm the traded wisdom that VARs in differences optimize one-step prediction and that error correction helps at larger horizons, the model-averaging experiments point at problems in allotting an adequate penalty for the complexity of candidate models. (Author's abstract

The stability of money demand in the long-run: Italy 1861–2011

Money demand stability is a crucial issue for monetary policy efficacy, and it is particularly endangered when substantial changes occur in the monetary system. By implementing the ARDL technique, this study intends to estimate the impact of money demand determinants in Italy over a long period (1861–2011) and to investigate the stability of the estimated relations. We show that instability cannot be excluded when a standard money demand function is estimated, irrespectively of the use of M1 or M2. Then, we argue that the reason for possible instability resides in the omission of relevant variables, as we show that a fully stable demand for narrow money (M1) can be obtained from an augmented money demand function involving real exchange rate and its volatility as additional explanatory variables. These results also allow us to argue that narrower monetary aggregates should be employed in order to obtain a stable estimated relation