Social uncertainty is heterogeneous and sometimes valuable

To win friends, help the needy, avoid exploitation or influence strangers, people must make decisions that are inherently uncertain. In their compelling and insightful perspective on resolving social uncertainty1, FeldmanHall and Shenhav (henceforth F&S) join a growing movement combining computational approaches with social psychological theory. F&S identify a range of negative and positive aspects of social uncertainty. Here we offer additional ways to think about social uncertainty and suggest potential avenues for future research

Extinctions of aculeate pollinators in Britain and the role of large-scale agricultural changes

Pollinators are fundamental to maintaining both biodiversity and agricultural productivity, but habitat destruction, loss of flower resources, and increased use of pesticides are causing declines in their abundance and diversity. Using historical records we assessed the rate of extinction of bee and flower-visiting wasp species in Britain, from the mid 19th century to the present. The most rapid phase of extinction appears to be related to changes in agricultural policy and practice beginning in the 1920s, before the agricultural intensification prompted by the Second World War, often cited as the most important driver of biodiversity loss in Britain. Slowing of the extinction rate from the 1960s onwards may be due to prior loss of the most sensitive species and/or effective conservation programs

The Area Distribution of Solar Magnetic Bright Points

Magnetic Bright Points (MBPs) are among the smallest observable objects on the solar photosphere. A combination of G-band observations and numerical simulations is used to determine their area distribution. An automatic detection algorithm, employing 1-dimensional intensity profiling, is utilized to identify these structures in the observed and simulated datasets. Both distributions peak at an area of $\approx$45000 km$^2$, with a sharp decrease towards smaller areas. The distributions conform with log-normal statistics, which suggests that flux fragmentation dominates over flux convergence. Radiative magneto-convection simulations indicate an independence in the MBP area distribution for differing magnetic flux densities. The most commonly occurring bright point size corresponds to the typical width of intergranular lanes.Comment: Astrophysical Journal, accepte

On the nature of the progenitors of three type II-P supernovae: 2004et, 2006my and 2006ov

The pre-explosion observations of the type II-P supernovae 2006my, 2006ov and 2004et, are re-analysed. In the cases of supernovae 2006my and 2006ov we argue that the published candidate progenitors are not coincident with their respective supernova sites in pre-explosion Hubble Space Telescope observations. We therefore derive upper luminosity and mass limits for the unseen progenitors of both these supernovae, assuming they are red supergiants: 2006my (log L/Lsun = 4.51; mass < 13Msun) and 2006ov (log L/Lsun = 4.29; mass < 10Msun). In the case of supernova 2004et we show that the yellow-supergiant progenitor candidate, originally identified in Canada France Hawaii Telescope images, is still visible ~3 years post-explosion in observations from the William Herschel Telescope. High-resolution Hubble Space Telescope and Gemini (North) adaptive optics late-time imagery reveal that this source is not a single yellow supergiant star, but rather is resolved into at least three distinct sources. We report the discovery of the unresolved progenitor as an excess of flux in pre-explosion Isaac Newton Telescope i'-band imaging. Accounting for the late-time contribution of the supernova using published optical spectra, we calculate the progenitor photometry as the difference between the pre- and post-explosion, ground-based observations. We find the progenitor was most likely a late K to late M-type supergiant of 8 +5/-1 Msun. In all cases we conclude that future, high-resolution observations of the supernova sites will be required to confirm these results.Comment: 43 pages (pre-print format), 12 figures, 10 tables. Significant revision following referee's comments. Accepted for publication in MNRA

From risk to fairness

Kadcyla is a drug that extends the life of breast cancer patients by an average of 6 mo. It also happens to be incredibly expensive. The United Kingdom’s National Health Service sparked controversy when it refused to provide this drug to patients, citing its low cost effectiveness. Cases like this raise the question of how societies should make distributive decisions. Should we maximize utility or should we aim to improve the lives of the least fortunate, even if doing so is costly for everyone else? The influential philosopher John Rawls tackled this dilemma by framing fair distributive decisions as a kind of gamble (1). Rawls famously argued that we should choose the kind of society we would all prefer if our choice was made from behind a “veil of ignorance” — that is, under conditions of complete uncertainty about where we would end up. He held that people should make such choices by following a risk-averse “maximin” strategy of maximizing the minimum possible outcome for themselves and others. Echoing Rawls’s theory, new research by Kameda et al. (2) links risk and fairness by showing that preferences about risk and about distribution may arise from common psychological and neural substrates

The Role of Emotional Reactivity, Self-regulation, and Puberty in Adolescents\u27 Prosocial Behaviors

This study was designed to examine the roles of emotional reactivity, self-regulation, and pubertal timing in prosocial behaviors during adolescence. Participants were 850 sixth graders (50% female, Mean age = 11.03, SD = .17) who were followed up at age 15. In hierarchical regression models, measures of emotional reactivity, self-regulation, pubertal timing and their interactions were used to predict (concurrently and over time) adolescents’ prosocial behaviors in the home and with peers. Overall, the findings provide evidence for pubertal and temperament based predictors of prosocial behaviors expressed in different contexts. Self-regulation was positively related to both forms of prosocial behavior, concurrently and longitudinally. Emotional reactivity showed moderately consistent effects, showing negative concurrent relations to prosocial behavior with peers and negative longitudinal relations (four years later) to prosocial behavior at home. Some curvilinear effects of temperament on prosocial behaviors were also found. Effects of pubertal timing were found to interact with gender, such that boys who were early maturers showed the highest levels of prosocial behavior at home concurrently. Discussion focuses on the role of temperament-based mechanisms in the expression of prosocial behaviors in different contexts in adolescence

Concern for others leads to vicarious optimism

An optimistic learning bias leads people to update their beliefs in response to better-than-expected good news but neglect worse-than-expected bad news. Because evidence suggests that this bias arises from self-concern, we hypothesized that a similar bias may affect beliefs about other people’s futures, to the extent that people care about others. Here, we demonstrated the phenomenon of vicarious optimism and showed that it arises from concern for others. Participants predicted the likelihood of unpleasant future events that could happen to either themselves or others. In addition to showing an optimistic learning bias for events affecting themselves, people showed vicarious optimism when learning about events affecting friends and strangers. Vicarious optimism for strangers correlated with generosity toward strangers, and experimentally increasing concern for strangers amplified vicarious optimism for them. These findings suggest that concern for others can bias beliefs about their future welfare and that optimism in learning is not restricted to oneself