Applying Bayesian model averaging for uncertainty estimation of input data in energy modelling

Background Energy scenarios that are used for policy advice have ecological and social impact on society. Policy measures that are based on modelling exercises may lead to far reaching financial and ecological consequences. The purpose of this study is to raise awareness that energy modelling results are accompanied with uncertainties that should be addressed explicitly. Methods With view to existing approaches of uncertainty assessment in energy economics and climate science, relevant requirements for an uncertainty assessment are defined. An uncertainty assessment should be explicit, independent of the assessor’s expertise, applicable to different models, including subjective quantitative and statistical quantitative aspects, intuitively understandable and be reproducible. Bayesian model averaging for input variables of energy models is discussed as method that satisfies these requirements. A definition of uncertainty based on posterior model probabilities of input variables to energy models is presented. Results The main findings are that (1) expert elicitation as predominant assessment method does not satisfy all requirements, (2) Bayesian model averaging for input variable modelling meets the requirements and allows evaluating a vast amount of potentially relevant influences on input variables and (3) posterior model probabilities of input variable models can be translated in uncertainty associated with the input variable. Conclusions An uncertainty assessment of energy scenarios is relevant if policy measures are (partially) based on modelling exercises. Potential implications of these findings include that energy scenarios could be associated with uncertainty that is presently neither assessed explicitly nor communicated adequately

Data for: The international transmission of US shocks—Evidence from Bayesian global vector autoregressions

Abstract of associated article: We analyze international spillovers of expansionary US aggregate demand and supply shocks, and of a contractionary US monetary policy shock. For that purpose we use a Bayesian version of the global vector autoregressive model coupled with a prior specification that explicitly accounts for uncertainty regarding variable choice. Our results are three-fold: first, we find significant spillovers of all three shocks, with the monetary policy shock impacting most strongly on international output. Second, the dynamics of the receiving countries׳ responses depend on the structural interpretation of the respective shock. Third, US shocks tend to spread globally through the financial channel (i.e., interest rates) and the trade channel (i.e., the real effective exchange rate)

Massage therapy slightly decreased pain intensity after habitual running, but had no effect on fatigue, mood or physical performance: a randomised trial

Question: Does massage therapy reduce pain and perceived fatigue in the quadriceps, and improve the mood and physical performance of runners after habitual sporting activity (10-km run)? Design: Randomised controlled trial with concealed allocation, intention-to-treat analysis and blinded assessment. Participants: Seventy-eight runners after sporting activity (10-km run). Intervention: The experimental group received 10 minutes of massage to the quadriceps aimed at recovery following sport practice, and the control group received a sham joint mobilisation. Outcome measures: Pain and perceived fatigue were each assessed using a 0-to-10 numerical rating scale; pain behaviour via the McGill Pain Questionnaire; mood profile via Brunel Mood Scale; quadriceps muscle flexibility using maximal knee flexion angle via inclinometer; isometric muscle strength of knee extensors via hand-held dynamometry; and vertical jump performance using jump height via My Jump 2 app. Evaluations were carried out immediately before and after the intervention, and at 24, 48 and 72 hours after the intervention. Generalised estimating equations were used to estimate a between-group difference (95% CI) using data across all time points. Results: The experimental group had significantly lower scores than the control group on the numerical rating scale for pain by 0.7 points (95% CI 0.1 to 1.3). There were no significant between-group differences for any of the other outcome measures. Conclusion: Massage therapy was effective at reducing pain intensity after application to the quadriceps of runners compared to a sham technique, but the magnitude of the effect was small. There were no significant effects on perceived fatigue, flexibility, strength or jump performance. Trial registration: Brazilian Registry of Clinical Trials, RBR-393m7m. Key words: Musculoskeletal manipulations, Musculoskeletal pain, Athletes, Quadriceps muscle, Physical therap