490 research outputs found
Exploiting road traffic data for very short term load forecasting in smart grids
If accurate short term prediction of electricity consumption is available, the Smart Grid infrastructure can rapidly and reliably react to changing conditions. The economic importance of accurate predictions justifies research for more complex forecasting algorithms. This paper proposes road traffic data as a new input dimension that can help improve very short term load forecasting. We explore the dependencies between power demand and road traffic data and evaluate the predictive power of the added dimension compared with other common features, such as historical load and temperature profiles
Socioâeconomic impact classification of alien taxa (SEICAT)
1 Many alien taxa are known to cause socioâeconomic impacts by affecting the different constituents of human wellâbeing (security; material and nonâmaterial assets; health; social, spiritual and cultural relations; freedom of choice and action). Attempts to quantify socioâeconomic impacts in monetary terms are unlikely to provide a useful basis for evaluating and comparing impacts of alien taxa because they are notoriously difficult to measure and important aspects of human wellâbeing are ignored.
2 Here, we propose a novel standardised method for classifying alien taxa in terms of the magnitude of their impacts on human wellâbeing, based on the capability approach from welfare economics. The core characteristic of this approach is that it uses changes in peoples' activities as a common metric for evaluating impacts on wellâbeing.
2 Impacts are assigned to one of five levels, from Minimal Concern to Massive, according to semiâquantitative scenarios that describe the severity of the impacts. Taxa are then classified according to the highest level of deleterious impact that they have been recorded to cause on any constituent of human wellâbeing. The scheme also includes categories for taxa that are not evaluated, have no alien population, or are data deficient, and a method for assigning uncertainty to all the classifications. To demonstrate the utility of the system, we classified impacts of amphibians globally. These showed a variety of impacts on human wellâbeing, with the cane toad (Rhinella marina) scoring Major impacts. For most species, however, no studies reporting impacts on human wellâbeing were found, i.e. these species were data deficient.
2 The classification provides a consistent procedure for translating the broad range of measures and types of impact into ranked levels of socioâeconomic impact, assigns alien taxa on the basis of the best available evidence of their documented deleterious impacts, and is applicable across taxa and at a range of spatial scales. The system was designed to align closely with the Environmental Impact Classification for Alien Taxa (EICAT) and the Red List, both of which have been adopted by the International Union of Nature Conservation (IUCN), and could therefore be readily integrated into international practices and policies
Boomâbust dynamics in biological invasions: towards an improved application of the concept
Boomâbust dynamics â the rise of a population to outbreak levels, followed by a dramatic decline â have been associated with biological invasions and offered as a reason not to manage troublesome invaders. However, boomâbust dynamics rarely have been critically defined, analyzed, or interpreted. Here, we define boomâbust dynamics and provide specific suggestions for improving the application of the boomâbust concept. Boomâbust dynamics can arise from many causes, some closely associated with invasions, but others occurring across a wide range of ecological settings, especially when environmental conditions are changing rapidly. As a result, it is difficult to infer cause or predict future trajectories merely by observing the dynamic. We use tests with simulated data to show that a common metric for detecting and describing boomâbust dynamics, decline from an observed peak to a subsequent trough, tends to severely overestimate the frequency and severity of busts, and should be used cautiously if at all. We review and test other metrics that are better suited to describe boomâbust dynamics. Understanding the frequency and importance of boomâbust dynamics requires empirical studies of large, representative, longâterm data sets that use clear definitions of boomâbust, appropriate analytical methods, and careful interpretations
Framework and guidelines for implementing the proposed IUCN Environmental Impact Classification for Alien Taxa (EICAT)
Recently, Blackburn et al. (2014) developed a simple, objective and transparent method for classifying alien taxa in terms of the magnitude of their detrimental environmental impacts in recipient areas. Here, we present a comprehensive framework and guidelines for implementing this method, which we term the Environmental Impact Classification for Alien Taxa, or EICAT. We detail criteria for applying the EICAT scheme in a consistent and comparable fashion, prescribe the supporting information that should be supplied along with classifications, and describe the process for implementing the method. This comment aims to draw the attention of interested parties to the framework and guidelines, and to present them in their entirety in a location where they are freely accessible to any potential users
Distinct Biogeographic Phenomena Require a Specific Terminology: A Reply to Wilson and Sagoff
In a recent publication, we proposed that the increasing number of range-expanding species that track human induced environmental change warrant specific recognition in science and biodiversity management, and we proposed the term âneonativeâ for these taxa. Here, we reply to two letters (Wilson 2019, Sagoff 2019) that criticised specific, yet different aspects presented in our publication. While we disagree on several points with both authors, we agree that a broader discourse is needed for developing robust and widely accepted definitions and terms for the ever more important phenomenon of neonative species
Patterns and drivers of climatic niche dynamics during biological invasions of island-endemic amphibians, reptiles, and birds
Shifts between native and alien climatic niches pose a major challenge for predicting biological invasions. This is particularly true for insular species because geophysical barriers could constrain the realization of their fundamental niches, which may lead to underestimates of their invasion potential. To investigate this idea, we estimated the frequency of shifts between native and alien climatic niches and the magnitude of climatic mismatches using 80,148 alien occurrences of 46 endemic insular amphibian, reptile, and bird species. Then, we assessed the influence of nine potential predictors on climatic mismatches across taxa, based on species' characteristics, native range physical characteristics, and alien range properties. We found that climatic mismatch is common during invasions of endemic insular birds and reptiles: 78.3% and 55.1% of their respective alien records occurred outside of the environmental space of species' native climatic niche. In comparison, climatic mismatch was evident for only 16.2% of the amphibian invasions analyzed. Several predictors significantly explained climatic mismatch, and these varied among taxonomic groups. For amphibians, only native range size was associated with climatic mismatch. For reptiles, the magnitude of climatic mismatch was higher for species with narrow native altitudinal ranges, occurring in topographically complex or less remote islands, as well as for species with larger distances between their native and alien ranges. For birds, climatic mismatch was significantly larger for invasions on continents with higher phylogenetic diversity of the recipient community, and when the invader was more evolutionarily distinct. Our findings highlight that apparently common niche shifts of insular species may jeopardize our ability to forecast their potential invasions using correlative methods based on climatic variables. Also, we show which factors provide additional insights on the actual invasion potential of insular endemic amphibians, reptiles, and birds
A proposed unified framework to describe the management of biological invasions
Managing the impacts of invasive alien species (IAS) is a great societal challenge. A wide variety of terms have been used to describe the management of invasive alien species and the sequence in which they might be applied. This variety and lack of consistency creates uncertainty in the presentation and description of management in policy, science and practice. Here we expand on the existing description of the invasion process to develop an IAS management framework. We define the different forms of active management using a novel approach based on changes in species status, avoiding the need for stand-alone descriptions of management types, and provide a complete set of potential management activities. We propose a standardised set of management terminology as an emergent feature of this framework. We identified eight key forms of management: (1) pathway management, (2) interception, (3) limits to keeping, (4) secure keeping, (5) eradication, (6) complete reproductive removal, (7) containment and (8) suppression. We recognise four associated terms: prevention; captive management; rapid eradication; and long-term management, and note the use of impact mitigation and restoration as associated forms of management. We discuss the wider use of this framework and the supporting activities required to ensure management is well-targeted, cost-effective and makes best use of limited resources
European scenarios for future biological invasions
1. Invasive alien species are one of the major threats to global biodiversity, ecosystem integrity, nature's contributions to people and human health. While scenarios about potential future developments have been available for other global change drivers for quite some time, we largely lack an understanding of how biological invasions might unfold in the future across spatial scales.
2. Based on previous work on global invasion scenarios, we developed a workflow to downscale global scenarios to a regional and policy-relevant context. We applied this workflow at the European scale to create four European scenarios of biological invasions until 2050 that consider different environmental, socio-economic and socio-cultural trajectories, namely the European Alien Species Narratives (Eur-ASNs).
3. We compared the Eur-ASNs with their previously published global counterparts (Global-ASNs), assessing changes in 26 scenario variables. This assessment showed a high consistency between global and European scenarios in the logic and assumptions of the scenario variables. However, several discrepancies in scenario variable trends were detected that could be attributed to scale differences. This suggests that the workflow is able to capture scale-dependent differences across scenarios.
4. We also compared the Global- and Eur-ASNs with the widely used Global and European Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), a set of scenarios developed in the context of climate change to capture different future socio-economic trends. Our comparison showed considerable divergences in the scenario space occupied by the different scenarios, with overall larger differences between the ASNs and SSPs than across scales (global vs. European) within the scenario initiatives.
5. Given the differences between the ASNs and SSPs, it seems that the SSPs do not adequately capture the scenario space relevant to understanding the complex future of biological invasions. This underlines the importance of developing independent but complementary scenarios focussed on biological invasions. The downscaling workflow we implemented and presented here provides a tool to develop such scenarios across different regions and contexts. This is a major step towards an improved understanding of all major drivers of global change, including biological invasions
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