Gutenberg Richter and Characteristic Earthquake Behavior in Simple Mean-Field Models of Heterogeneous Faults

The statistics of earthquakes in a heterogeneous fault zone is studied analytically and numerically in the mean field version of a model for a segmented fault system in a three-dimensional elastic solid. The studies focus on the interplay between the roles of disorder, dynamical effects, and driving mechanisms. A two-parameter phase diagram is found, spanned by the amplitude of dynamical weakening (or ``overshoot'') effects (epsilon) and the normal distance (L) of the driving forces from the fault. In general, small epsilon and small L are found to produce Gutenberg-Richter type power law statistics with an exponential cutoff, while large epsilon and large L lead to a distribution of small events combined with characteristic system-size events. In a certain parameter regime the behavior is bistable, with transitions back and forth from one phase to the other on time scales determined by the fault size and other model parameters. The implications for realistic earthquake statistics are discussed.Comment: 21 pages, RevTex, 6 figures (ps, eps

Statistics of Earthquakes in Simple Models of Heterogeneous Faults

Simple models for ruptures along a heterogeneous earthquake fault zone are studied, focussing on the interplay between the roles of disorder and dynamical effects. A class of models are found to operate naturally at a critical point whose properties yield power law scaling of earthquake statistics. Various dynamical effects can change the behavior to a distribution of small events combined with characteristic system size events. The studies employ various analytic methods as well as simulations.Comment: 4 pages, RevTex, 3 figures (eps-files), uses eps

Stochastics theory of log-periodic patterns

We introduce an analytical model based on birth-death clustering processes to help understanding the empirical log-periodic corrections to power-law scaling and the finite-time singularity as reported in several domains including rupture, earthquakes, world population and financial systems. In our stochastics theory log-periodicities are a consequence of transient clusters induced by an entropy-like term that may reflect the amount of cooperative information carried by the state of a large system of different species. The clustering completion rates for the system are assumed to be given by a simple linear death process. The singularity at t_{o} is derived in terms of birth-death clustering coefficients.Comment: LaTeX, 1 ps figure - To appear J. Phys. A: Math & Ge

Detection of freeze injury in oranges using magnetic resonance imaging under motion conditions

Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is applied for on-line inspection of fruits. The aim of this work is to address the applicability of MRI for freeze injury detection in oranges directly on a distribution chain. Undamaged and damaged oranges are conveyed at 50 and 100 mm/s by a specially designed conveyor within a 4.7 T spectrometer obtaining fast low-angle shot images. An automatic segmentation algorithm is proposed that allows the discrimination between undamaged and damaged orange

Anatomy of the high-frequency ambient seismic wave field at the TCDP borehole.

International audienceThe Taiwan Chelungpu-fault Drilling Project (TCDP) installed a vertical seismic array between 950 and 1270 m depth in an active thrust fault environment. In this paper we analyze continuous noise records of the TCDP array between 1 and 16 Hz. We apply multiple array processing and noise correlation techniques to study the noise source process, properties of the propagation medium, and the ambient seismic wave field. Diurnal amplitude and slowness patterns suggest that noise is generated by cultural activity. The vicinity of the recording site to the excitation region, indicated by a narrow azimuthal distribution of propagation directions, leads to a predominant ballistic propagation regime. This is evident from the compatibility of the data with an incident plane wave model, polarized direct arrivals of noise correlation functions, and the asymmetric arrival shape. Evidence for contributions from scattering comes from equilibrated earthquake coda energy ratios, the frequency dependent randomization of propagation directions, and the existence of correlation coda waves. We conclude that the ballistic and scattered propagation regime coexist, where the first regime dominates the records, but the second is weaker yet not negligible. Consequently, the wave field is not equipartitioned. Correlation signal-to-noise ratios indicate a frequency dependent noise intensity. Iterations of the correlation procedure enhance the signature of the scattered regime. Discrepancies between phase velocities estimated from correlation functions and in-situ measurements are associated with the array geometry and its relative orientation to the predominant energy flux. The stability of correlation functions suggests their applicability in future monitoring efforts

Results from the centers for disease control and prevention's predict the 2013-2014 Influenza Season Challenge

Background: Early insights into the timing of the start, peak, and intensity of the influenza season could be useful in planning influenza prevention and control activities. To encourage development and innovation in influenza forecasting, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) organized a challenge to predict the 2013-14 Unites States influenza season. Methods: Challenge contestants were asked to forecast the start, peak, and intensity of the 2013-2014 influenza season at the national level and at any or all Health and Human Services (HHS) region level(s). The challenge ran from December 1, 2013-March 27, 2014; contestants were required to submit 9 biweekly forecasts at the national level to be eligible. The selection of the winner was based on expert evaluation of the methodology used to make the prediction and the accuracy of the prediction as judged against the U.S. Outpatient Influenza-like Illness Surveillance Network (ILINet). Results: Nine teams submitted 13 forecasts for all required milestones. The first forecast was due on December 2, 2013; 3/13 forecasts received correctly predicted the start of the influenza season within one week, 1/13 predicted the peak within 1 week, 3/13 predicted the peak ILINet percentage within 1 %, and 4/13 predicted the season duration within 1 week. For the prediction due on December 19, 2013, the number of forecasts that correctly forecasted the peak week increased to 2/13, the peak percentage to 6/13, and the duration of the season to 6/13. As the season progressed, the forecasts became more stable and were closer to the season milestones. Conclusion: Forecasting has become technically feasible, but further efforts are needed to improve forecast accuracy so that policy makers can reliably use these predictions. CDC and challenge contestants plan to build upon the methods developed during this contest to improve the accuracy of influenza forecasts. © 2016 The Author(s)

Partial rupture of a locked patch of the Sumatra megathrust during the 2007 earthquake sequence

The great Sumatra–Andaman earthquake and tsunami of 2004 was a dramatic reminder of the importance of understanding the seismic and tsunami hazards of subduction zones [1,2,3,4]. In March 2005, the Sunda megathrust ruptured again, producing an event [5] of moment magnitude (Mw) 8.6 south of the 2004 rupture area, which was the site of a similar event in 1861 (ref. 6). Concern was then focused on the Mentawai area, where large earthquakes had occurred in 1797 (Mw = 8.8) and 1833 (Mw = 9.0) [6,7]. Two earthquakes, one of Mw = 8.4 and, twelve hours later, one of Mw = 7.9, indeed occurred there on 12 September 2007. Here we show that these earthquakes ruptured only a fraction of the area ruptured in 1833 and consist of distinct asperities within a patch of the megathrust that had remained locked in the interseismic period. This indicates that the same portion of a megathrust can rupture in different patterns depending on whether asperities break as isolated seismic events or cooperate to produce a larger rupture. This variability probably arises from the influence of non-permanent barriers, zones with locally lower pre-stress due to the past earthquakes. The stress state of the portion of the Sunda megathrust that had ruptured in 1833 and 1797 was probably not adequate for the development of a single large rupture in 2007. The moment released in 2007 amounts to only a fraction both of that released in 1833 and of the deficit of moment that had accumulated as a result of interseismic strain since 1833. The potential for a large megathrust event in the Mentawai area thus remains large

Ca2+-induced changes in energy metabolism and viability of melanoma cells

Cancer cells are characterized by a high rate of glycolysis, which is their primary energy source. We show here that a rise in intracellular-free calcium ion (Ca2+), induced by Ca2+-ionophore A23187, exerted a deleterious effect on glycolysis and viability of B16 melanoma cells. Ca2+-ionophore caused a dose-dependent detachment of phosphofructokinase (EC 2.7.1.11), one of the key enzymes of glycolysis, from cytoskeleton. It also induced a decrease in the levels of glucose 1,6-bisphosphate and fructose 1,6-bisphosphate, the two stimulatory signal molecules of glycolysis. All these changes occurred at lower concentrations of the drug than those required to induce a reduction in viability of melanoma cells. We also found that low concentrations of Ca2+-ionophore induced an increase in adenosine 5′-triphosphate (ATP), which most probably resulted from the increase in mitochondrial-bound hexokinase, which reflects a defence mechanism. This mechanism can no longer operate at high concentrations of the Ca2+-ionophore, which causes a decrease in mitochondrial and cytosolic hexokinase, leading to a drastic fall in ATP and melanoma cell death. The present results suggest that drugs which are capable of inducing accumulation of intracellular-free Ca2+ in melanoma cells would cause a reduction in energy-producing systems, leading to melanoma cell death. © 1999 Cancer Research Campaig

Focus on collagen: in vitro systems to study fibrogenesis and antifibrosis _ state of the art

Fibrosis represents a major global disease burden, yet a potent antifibrotic compound is still not in sight. Part of the explanation for this situation is the difficulties that both academic laboratories and research and development departments in the pharmaceutical industry have been facing in re-enacting the fibrotic process in vitro for screening procedures prior to animal testing. Effective in vitro characterization of antifibrotic compounds has been hampered by cell culture settings that are lacking crucial cofactors or are not holistic representations of the biosynthetic and depositional pathway leading to the formation of an insoluble pericellular collagen matrix. In order to appreciate the task which in vitro screening of antifibrotics is up against, we will first review the fibrotic process by categorizing it into events that are upstream of collagen biosynthesis and the actual biosynthetic and depositional cascade of collagen I. We point out oversights such as the omission of vitamin C, a vital cofactor for the production of stable procollagen molecules, as well as the little known in vitro tardy procollagen processing by collagen C-proteinase/BMP-1, another reason for minimal collagen deposition in cell culture. We review current methods of cell culture and collagen quantitation vis-à-vis the high content options and requirements for normalization against cell number for meaningful data retrieval. Only when collagen has formed a fibrillar matrix that becomes cross-linked, invested with ligands, and can be remodelled and resorbed, the complete picture of fibrogenesis can be reflected in vitro. We show here how this can be achieved. A well thought-out in vitro fibrogenesis system represents the missing link between brute force chemical library screens and rational animal experimentation, thus providing both cost-effectiveness and streamlined procedures towards the development of better antifibrotic drugs