Temperature Range Shifts for Three European Tree Species over the Last 10,000 Years.

We quantified the degree to which the relationship between the geographic distribution of three major European tree species, Abies alba, Fagus sylvatica and Picea abies and January temperature (Tjan) has remained stable over the past 10,000 years. We used an extended data-set of fossil pollen records over Europe to reconstruct spatial variation in Tjan values for each 1000-year time slice between 10,000 and 3000 years BP (before present). We evaluated the relationships between the occurrences of the three species at each time slice and the spatially interpolated Tjan values, and compared these to their modern temperature ranges. Our results reveal that F. sylvatica and P. abies experienced Tjan ranges during the Holocene that differ from those of the present, while A. alba occurred over a Tjan range that is comparable to its modern one. Our data suggest the need for re-evaluation of the assumption of stable climate tolerances at a scale of several thousand years. The temperature range instability in our observed data independently validates similar results based exclusively on modeled Holocene temperatures. Our study complements previous studies that used modeled data by identifying variation in frequencies of occurrence of populations within the limits of suitable climate. However, substantial changes that were observed in the realized thermal niches over the Holocene tend to suggest that predicting future species distributions should not solely be based on modern realized niches, and needs to account for the past variation in the climate variables that drive species ranges

Study of State Estimation Using Weighted Least Squares Method

Power state estimation constitutes the core of the on-line security analysis function. The challenge number one of a state estimator is to provide the optimal estimates of system state with minimum of measurement data. This paper describes weighted least squares state estimation method and investigates how the efficiency of WLS state estimation changes according to 4 parameters: number of measurements, measurement type, measurement weight and level of noise. Different simulation cases are tested on 3-bus system and IEEE 14-bus system. The results show that accurate estimates of system state can be obtained with minimum of measurement data on condition to choose a good combination of accurate measurements with a minimum of voltage measurements and power injection measurements and these data should be properly distributed throughout the system. For best results, the two factors (weight and noise) must be combined to obtain the best estimation. Indeed, the most accurate measurements (lower level of noise) should have greater weight compared to bad measurements (higher level of noise), specially voltage measurements due to their big impact

Colloquium: Mechanical formalisms for tissue dynamics

The understanding of morphogenesis in living organisms has been renewed by tremendous progressin experimental techniques that provide access to cell-scale, quantitative information both on theshapes of cells within tissues and on the genes being expressed. This information suggests that ourunderstanding of the respective contributions of gene expression and mechanics, and of their crucialentanglement, will soon leap forward. Biomechanics increasingly benefits from models, which assistthe design and interpretation of experiments, point out the main ingredients and assumptions, andultimately lead to predictions. The newly accessible local information thus calls for a reflectionon how to select suitable classes of mechanical models. We review both mechanical ingredientssuggested by the current knowledge of tissue behaviour, and modelling methods that can helpgenerate a rheological diagram or a constitutive equation. We distinguish cell scale ("intra-cell")and tissue scale ("inter-cell") contributions. We recall the mathematical framework developpedfor continuum materials and explain how to transform a constitutive equation into a set of partialdifferential equations amenable to numerical resolution. We show that when plastic behaviour isrelevant, the dissipation function formalism appears appropriate to generate constitutive equations;its variational nature facilitates numerical implementation, and we discuss adaptations needed in thecase of large deformations. The present article gathers theoretical methods that can readily enhancethe significance of the data to be extracted from recent or future high throughput biomechanicalexperiments.Comment: 33 pages, 20 figures. This version (26 Sept. 2015) contains a few corrections to the published version, all in Appendix D.2 devoted to large deformation

Human demography changes in Morocco and environmental imprint during the Holocene

The aim of this work is to reconstruct the periods of growth and decline of human populations in Morocco and their potential impacts on the landscape over the past 10,000 years. In order to estimate the trends in the human population size between 10,000 and 3000 years ago, we used a summed probability distribution (SPD) of radiocarbon dates from a wide range of archaeological sites throughout Morocco. Landscape changes were identified and quantified from a dataset of fossil pollen records. Different anthropogenic pollen markers, as well as natural vegetation groups and taxonomic richness were used to analyse the relationship between long-term trends in human population expansion or regression and type of impact on the landscape. The sub-regions of Morocco have different topographies and climates, which have either favoured or prevented the establishment and/or spread of human populations. In order to identify the areas most significantly impacted by humans and the timing of such impacts, we have reconstructed and compared the same past anthropogenic and landscape proxies along with the population trends within the lowlands and mountainous areas. The lowlands were more strongly impacted earlier in the Holocene than the mountainous areas. Anthropogenic markers indicate that farming expanded in the lowlands during the first major expansion of human populations between ca. 7200 and 6700 cal. yr BP at the start of the Neolithic period. In the Atlas and Rif Mountains, anthropogenic impact is not clearly detectable in any of these areas before 4000 cal. BP. </jats:p

Disentangling environmental correlates of vascular plant biodiversity in a Mediterranean hotspot

We determined the environmental correlates of vascular plant biodiversity in the Baetic-Rifan region, a plant biodiversity hotspot in the western Mediterranean. A catalog of the whole flora of Andalusia and northern Morocco, the region that includes most of the Baetic-Rifan complex, was compiled using recent comprehensive floristic catalogs. Hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA) and detrended correspondence analysis (DCA) of the different ecoregions of Andalusia and northern Morocco were conducted to determine their floristic affinities. Diversity patterns were studied further by focusing on regional endemic taxa. Endemic and nonendemic alpha diversities were regressed to several environmental variables. Finally, semi-partial regressions on distance matrices were conducted to extract the respective contributions of climatic, altitudinal, lithological, and geographical distance matrices to beta diversity in endemic and nonendemic taxa. We found that West Rifan plant assemblages had more similarities with Andalusian ecoregions than with other nearby northern Morocco ecoregions. The endemic alpha diversity was explained relatively well by the environmental variables related to summer drought and extreme temperature values. Of all the variables, geographical distance contributed by far the most to spatial turnover in species diversity in the Baetic-Rifan hotspot. In the Baetic range, elevation was the most significant driver of nonendemic species beta diversity, while lithology and elevation were the main drivers of endemic beta diversity. Despite the fact that Andalusia and northern Morocco are presently separated by the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea, the Baetic and Rifan mountain ranges have many floristic similarities – especially in their western ranges – due to past migration of species across the Strait of Gibraltar. Climatic variables could be shaping the spatial distribution of endemic species richness throughout the Baetic-Rifan hotspot. Determinants of spatial turnover in biodiversity in the Baetic-Rifan hotspot vary in importance between endemic and nonendemic species

High genetic diversity at the extreme range edge: nucleotide variation at nuclear loci in Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) in Scotland

Nucleotide polymorphism at 12 nuclear loci was studied in Scots pine populations across an environmental gradient in Scotland, to evaluate the impacts of demographic history and selection on genetic diversity. At eight loci, diversity patterns were compared between Scottish and continental European populations. At these loci, a similar level of diversity (θsil=~0.01) was found in Scottish vs mainland European populations, contrary to expectations for recent colonization, however, less rapid decay of linkage disequilibrium was observed in the former (ρ=0.0086±0.0009, ρ=0.0245±0.0022, respectively). Scottish populations also showed a deficit of rare nucleotide variants (multi-locus Tajima's D=0.316 vs D=−0.379) and differed significantly from mainland populations in allelic frequency and/or haplotype structure at several loci. Within Scotland, western populations showed slightly reduced nucleotide diversity (πtot=0.0068) compared with those from the south and east (0.0079 and 0.0083, respectively) and about three times higher recombination to diversity ratio (ρ/θ=0.71 vs 0.15 and 0.18, respectively). By comparison with results from coalescent simulations, the observed allelic frequency spectrum in the western populations was compatible with a relatively recent bottleneck (0.00175 × 4Ne generations) that reduced the population to about 2% of the present size. However, heterogeneity in the allelic frequency distribution among geographical regions in Scotland suggests that subsequent admixture of populations with different demographic histories may also have played a role

Using the past to constrain the future: how the palaeorecord can improve estimates of global warming

Climate sensitivity is defined as the change in global mean equilibrium temperature after a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration and provides a simple measure of global warming. An early estimate of climate sensitivity, 1.5-4.5{\deg}C, has changed little subsequently, including the latest assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The persistence of such large uncertainties in this simple measure casts doubt on our understanding of the mechanisms of climate change and our ability to predict the response of the climate system to future perturbations. This has motivated continued attempts to constrain the range with climate data, alone or in conjunction with models. The majority of studies use data from the instrumental period (post-1850) but recent work has made use of information about the large climate changes experienced in the geological past. In this review, we first outline approaches that estimate climate sensitivity using instrumental climate observations and then summarise attempts to use the record of climate change on geological timescales. We examine the limitations of these studies and suggest ways in which the power of the palaeoclimate record could be better used to reduce uncertainties in our predictions of climate sensitivity.Comment: The final, definitive version of this paper has been published in Progress in Physical Geography, 31(5), 2007 by SAGE Publications Ltd, All rights reserved. \c{opyright} 2007 Edwards, Crucifix and Harriso