Analysis and Optimization of Deep Counterfactual Value Networks

Recently a strong poker-playing algorithm called DeepStack was published, which is able to find an approximate Nash equilibrium during gameplay by using heuristic values of future states predicted by deep neural networks. This paper analyzes new ways of encoding the inputs and outputs of DeepStack's deep counterfactual value networks based on traditional abstraction techniques, as well as an unabstracted encoding, which was able to increase the network's accuracy.Comment: Long version of publication appearing at KI 2018: The 41st German Conference on Artificial Intelligence (http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-00111-7_26). Corrected typo in titl

Existence of Multiagent Equilibria with Limited Agents

Multiagent learning is a necessary yet challenging problem as multiagent systems become more prevalent and environments become more dynamic. Much of the groundbreaking work in this area draws on notable results from game theory, in particular, the concept of Nash equilibria. Learners that directly learn an equilibrium obviously rely on their existence. Learners that instead seek to play optimally with respect to the other players also depend upon equilibria since equilibria are fixed points for learning. From another perspective, agents with limitations are real and common. These may be undesired physical limitations as well as self-imposed rational limitations, such as abstraction and approximation techniques, used to make learning tractable. This article explores the interactions of these two important concepts: equilibria and limitations in learning. We introduce the question of whether equilibria continue to exist when agents have limitations. We look at the general effects limitations can have on agent behavior, and define a natural extension of equilibria that accounts for these limitations. Using this formalization, we make three major contributions: (i) a counterexample for the general existence of equilibria with limitations, (ii) sufficient conditions on limitations that preserve their existence, (iii) three general classes of games and limitations that satisfy these conditions. We then present empirical results from a specific multiagent learning algorithm applied to a specific instance of limited agents. These results demonstrate that learning with limitations is feasible, when the conditions outlined by our theoretical analysis hold

Concentration, temperature, and density in a hydrogen-air flame by excimer-induced Raman scattering

Single-pulse, vibrational Raman scattering (VRS) is an attractive laser diagnostic for the study of supersonic hydrogen-air combustion. The VRS technique gives a complete thermodynamic description of the gas mixture at a point in the reacting flow. Single-pulse, vibrational Raman scattering can simultaneously provide independent measurements of density, temperature, and concentration of each major species (H2, H2O, O2 and N2) in a hydrogen/air turbulent combustor. Also the pressure can be calculated using the ideal gas law. However, single-pulse VRS systems in current use for measurement of turbulent combustion have a number of shortcomings when applied to supersonic flows: (1) slow repetition rate (1 to 5 Hz), (2) poor spatial resolution (0.5x0.3x0.3 cu mm), and (3) marginal time resolution. Most of these shortcomings are due to the use of visible wavelength flash-lamp pumped dye lasers. The advent of UV excimer laser allows the possibility of dramatic improvements in the single-pulse, vibrational Raman scattering. The excimer based VRS probe will greatly improve repetition rate (100 to 500 Hz), spatial resolution (0.1x0.1x0.1 cu mm) and time resolution (30ns). These improvements result from the lower divergence of the UV excimer, higher repetition rate, and the increased Raman cross-sections (15 to 20 times higher) at ultra-violet (UV) wavelengths. With this increased capability, single-pulse vibrational Raman scattering promises to be an ideal non-intrusive probe for the study of hypersonic propulsion flows

Improving the Heat Tolerance of Vulnerable Corals through their Algal Symbionts

Tropical coral reefs are one of the most impressive and diverse ecosystems on the face of the earth. Found in warm, tropical waters around the globe, these reefs are major supporters of the immense biodiversity of the area. The health of coral reefs is highly influential on the overall health of the entire ecosystem. In recent years, intensifying climate change has resulted in an accelerated rise in seawater temperatures and the frequency and severity of coral bleaching. Coral bleaching occurs in response to harsh environmental conditions that cause corals to enter a period of extreme stress. During this time, corals expel their algal symbionts – ending the symbiotic relationship with the zooxanthellae. Corals are especially vulnerable to permanent damage in this bleached state. As major supporters of the success of marine ecosystems and coastal communities alike, it is imperative that ecosystems are rehabilitated and protected from future harm. Coral polyps have long generation times, making them unable to keep up with the rate at which the climate is currently changing. Without human intervention, coral reefs will not survive the next century. Studies have indicated that the introduction of thermotolerant strains of Symbiodinium, the algal symbiont associated with corals, improves the heat tolerance of corals. This review examines the use of thermotolerant algal symbionts as a potential long-term rehabilitation and mitigation strategy. The thermal tolerance of zooxanthellae has been shown to transfer to coral species, making these species of corals more resilient to the increasing ocean temperatures and harsher conditions associated with climate change. Experimentally implanting thermotolerant strains of Symbiodinium may serve as a viable solution to the problem of corals’ slow adaptation times. Additional mitigation strategies may be required during the conservation of coral reefs to ensure the overall health of the reef for years to come. Climate change has shown no indication of slowing down in future years. It is critical that mitigation efforts are implemented immediately to identify feasible, long-term solutions to assist vulnerable corals in beating the heat

River Discharge, in State of the Climate in 2008

The global mean temperature in 2008 was slightly cooler than that in 2007; however, it still ranks within the 10 warmest years on record. Annual mean temperatures were generally well above average in South America, northern and southern Africa, Iceland, Europe, Russia, South Asia, and Australia. In contrast, an exceptional cold outbreak occurred during January across Eurasia and over southern European Russia and southern western Siberia. There has been a general increase in land-surface temperatures and in permafrost temperatures during the last several decades throughout the Arctic region, including increases of 1° to 2°C in the last 30 to 35 years in Russia. Record setting warm summer (JJA) air temperatures were observed throughout Greenland

Phase Diagrams For The Blue Phases Of Highly Chiral Liquid Crystals

Polarizing microscopy and optical-activity measurements are used to determine the phase diagram for the blue phases of chiral-racemic mixtures of terephthaloyloxy-bis-4-(2\u27-methylbutyl) benzoate. Contrary to an earlier report, it is the second blue phase (BP II) rather than the first blue phase (BP 1) that is not stable relative to the other blue phases at high chirality. With this development, all phase diagrams for the blue phases reported to date have the same topology. Using similar data for two other highly chiral systems, it is found that a simple scaling of the temperature and chiral-fraction axes produces phase diagrams in quantitative agreement with the present results. Thus, in spite of differences in molecular structure, the number of chiral centers, and phase-transition temperatures, these three systems possess remarkably similar phase diagrams and lend evidence for a universal phase diagram for the blue phases

U.S. River Discharge for 2008 in State of the Climate in 2008

The global mean temperature in 2008 was slightly cooler than that in 2007; however, it still ranks within the 10 warmest years on record. Annual mean temperatures were generally well above average in South America, northern and southern Africa, Iceland, Europe, Russia, South Asia, and Australia. In contrast, an exceptional cold outbreak occurred during January across Eurasia and over southern European Russia and southern western Siberia. There has been a general increase in land-surface temperatures and in permafrost temperatures during the last several decades throughout the Arctic region, including increases of 1° to 2°C in the last 30 to 35 years in Russia. Record setting warm summer (JJA) air temperatures were observed throughout Greenland

Improving Customer Waiting Time at a DMV Center Using Discrete-Event Simulation

Virginia's Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) serves a customer base of approximately 5.6 million licensed drivers and ID card holders and 7 million registered vehicle owners. DMV has more daily face-to-face contact with Virginia's citizens than any other state agency [1]. The DMV faces a major difficulty in keeping up with the excessively large customers' arrival rate. The consequences are queues building up, stretching out to the entrance doors (and sometimes even outside) and customers complaining. While the DMV state employees are trying to serve at their fastest pace, the remarkably large queues indicate that there is a serious problem that the DMV faces in its services, which must be dealt with rapidly. Simulation is considered as one of the best tools for evaluating and improving complex systems. In this paper, we use it to model one of the DMV centers located in Norfolk, VA. The simulation model is modeled in Arena 10.0 from Rockwell systems. The data used is collected from experts of the DMV Virginia headquarter located in Richmond. The model created was verified and validated. The intent of this study is to identify key problems causing the delays at the DMV centers and suggest possible solutions to minimize the customers' waiting time. In addition, two tentative hypotheses aiming to improve the model's design are tested and validated

Agreement between methods of measurement with multiple observations per individual

Limits of agreement provide a straightforward and intuitive approach to agreement between different methods for measuring the same quantity. When pairs of observations using the two methods are independent, i.e., on different subjects, the calculations are very simple and straightforward. Some authors collect repeated data, either as repeated pairs of measurements on the same subject, whose true value of the measured quantity may be changing, or more than one measurement by one or both methods of an unchanging underlying quantity. In this paper we describe methods for analysing such clustered observations, both when the underlying quantity is assumed to be changing and when it is not

Reducing Traffic Congestions by Introducing CACC-Vehicles on a Multi-Lane Highway Using Agent-Based Approach

Traffic congestion is an ongoing problem of great interest to researchers from different areas in academia. With the emerging technology for inter-vehicle communication, vehicles have the ability to exchange information with predecessors by wireless communication. In this paper, we present an agent-based model of traffic congestion and examine the impact of having CACC (Cooperative Adaptive Cruise Control) embedded vehicle(s) on a highway system consisting of 4 traffic lanes without overtaking. In our model, CACC vehicles adapt their acceleration/deceleration according to vehicle-to-vehicle inter-communication. We analyze the average speed of the cars, the shockwaves, and the evolution of traffic congestion throughout the lifecycle of the model. The study identifies how CACC vehicles affect the dynamics of traffic flow on a complex network and reduce the oscillatory behavior (stop and go) resulting from the acceleration/deceleration of the vehicles