Linking highway improvements to changes in land use with quasi-experimental research design: A better forecasting tool for transportation decision-making

An important issue for future improvement and extensions of highways will be the ability of projects to sustain challenges to Environmental Impact Statements based upon forecasts of regional growth. A legal precedent for such challenges was established in 1997 when a U.S. District Court judge ruled that the EIS for a proposed Illinois toll road was deficient because the growth projections were the same in the build and no-build scenarios. This paper incorporates popular regional growth forecasting models into a quasi-experimental research design that directly relates new highway investments in three California counties to changes in population and employment location, while controlling for no-build historical counterfactuals. The authors model simultaneous employment and population growth from 1980 to 2000 in Merced, Orange, and Santa Clara counties, three California counties that received substantive highway improvements during the mid-1990s. The strategy permits a comparison of the before-and-after tests for effects of investments on economic growth and land use in three regions that contrast how increased highway access affects development patterns: (1) for an urban center in Santa Clara County, (2) for an exurban region in Orange County, and (3) for a small town in Merced County. We find that traditional forecast approaches, which lack explicit control selection, can lead to erroneous conclusions about an impact. Our integrated form of the lagged adjustment model confirms results from a conventional form of the model that includes all cross-sectional units as observations; in both forms of the model we estimate a statistically significant increase in employment development in the exurban region in Orange County where new toll roads were constructed. In the case of Santa Clara County, neither our quasi-experimental integrated approach nor the conventional lagged adjustment approach estimates a significant effect on population or employment growth that can be attributed to the new highways constructed in the urban center. For the small town environment in Merced County, the conventional simultaneous growth regressions produce a materially different estimate than the approach we develop and examine in this paper. Isolating effects to local spatial units where the intervention occurred and their no-build counterfactual produces estimates of a statistically significant decrease in employment growth in the small town near the newly constructed highway bypass

Effects of a school-based intervention on active commuting to school and health-related fitness

Background: Active commuting to school has declined over time, and interventions are needed to reverse this trend. The main objective was to investigate the effects of a school-based intervention on active commuting to school and health-related fitness in school-age children of Southern Spain. Methods: A total of 494 children aged 8 to 11 years were invited to participate in the study. The schools were non-randomly allocated (i.e., school level allocation) into the experimental group (EG) or the control group (CG). The EG received an intervention program for 6 months (a monthly activity) focused on increasing the level of active commuting to school and mainly targeting children’s perceptions and attitudes. Active commuting to school and health-related fitness (i.e., cardiorespiratory fitness, muscular fitness and speed-agility), were measured at baseline and at the end of the intervention. Children with valid data on commuting to school at baseline and follow-up, sex, age and distance from home to school were included in the final analysis (n = 251). Data was analyzed through a factorial ANOVA and the Bonferroni post-hoc test. Results: At follow up, the EG had higher rates of cycling to school than CG for boys only (p = 0.04), but not for walking to school for boys or girls. The EG avoided increases in the rates of passive commuting at follow up, which increased in the CG among girls for car (MD = 1.77; SE = 0.714; p = 0.010) and bus (MD = 1.77; SE = 0.714; p = 0.010) modes. Moreover, we observed significant interactions and main effects between independent variables (study group, sex and assessment time point) on health-related fitness (p < 0.05) over the 6-month period between groups, with higher values in the control group (mainly in boys). Conclusion: A school-based intervention focused on increasing active commuting to school was associated with increases in rates of cycling to school among boys, but not for walking to school or health-related fitness. However, the school-based intervention avoided increases in rates of passive commuting in the experimental group, which were significantly increased in girls of the control group

A Synthesis of Global Urbanization Projections

This chapter reviews recent literature on global projections of future urbanization, covering the population, economic and physical extent perspectives. We report on several recent findings based on studies and reports on global patterns of urbanization. Specifically, we review new literature that makes projections about the spatial pattern, rate, and magnitude of urbanization change in the next 30–50 years. While projections should be viewed and utilized with caution, the chapter synthesis reports on several major findings that will have significant socioeconomic and environmental impacts including the following: By 2030, world urban population is expected to increase from the current 3.4 billion to almost 5 billion; Urban areas dominate the global economy – urban economies currently generate more than 90 % of global Gross Value Added; From 2000 to 2030, the percent increase in global urban land cover will be over 200 % whereas the global urban population will only grow by a little over 70 %. Our synthesis of recent projections suggest that between 50%–60% of the total urban land in existence in 2030 will be built in the first three decades of the 21st century. Challenges and limitations of urban dynamic projections are discussed, as well as possible innovative applications and potential pathways towards sustainable urban futures

Municipal policies and plans of action aiming to promote physical activity and healthy eating habits among schoolchildren in Stockholm, Sweden: a cross-sectional study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Promoting physical activity and healthy eating habits by structural measures that reach most children in a society is presumably the most sustainable way of preventing development of overweight and obesity in childhood. The main purpose of the present study was to analyse whether policies and plans of action at the central level in municipalities increased the number of measures that aim to promote physical activity and healthy eating habits among schoolchildren aged six to 16. Another purpose was to analyse whether demographic and socio-economic characteristics were associated with the level of such measures.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Questionnaires were used to collect data from 25 municipalities and 18 town districts in Stockholm County, Sweden. The questions were developed to capture municipal structural work and factors facilitating physical activity and the development of healthy eating habits for children. Local policy documents and plans of action were gathered. Information regarding municipal demographic and socio-economic characteristics was collected from public statistics.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Policy documents and plans of action in municipalities and town districts did not seem to influence the number of measures aiming to promote physical activity and healthy eating habits among schoolchildren in Stockholm County. Municipal demographic and socio-economic characteristics were, however, shown to influence the number of measures. In town districts with a high total population size, and in municipalities and town districts with a high proportion of adults with more than 12 years of education, a higher level of health-promoting measures was found. In municipalities with a high annual population growth, the number of measures was lower than in municipalities with a lower annual population growth. Another key finding was the lack of agreement between what was reported in the questionnaires regarding existence and contents of local policies and plans of action and what was actually found when these documents were scrutinized.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Policy documents and plans of action aiming to promote physical activity and healthy eating habits among schoolchildren aged six to 16 in municipalities and town districts in Stockholm County did not seem to have an impact on the local level of measures. Demographic and socio-economic characteristics of the municipalities and town districts were on the other hand associated with local health-promoting measures.</p

The Strathclyde Evaluation of Children's Active Travel (SE-CAT): study rationale and methods

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Environmental and socio-demographic associates of children's active transport to school: a cross-sectional investigation from the URBAN Study

BACKGROUND: Active transport (e.g., walking, cycling) to school (ATS) can contribute to children's physical activity and health. The built environment is acknowledged as an important factor in understanding children's ATS, alongside parental factors and seasonality. Inconsistencies in methodological approaches exist, and a clear understanding of factors related to ATS remains equivocal. The purpose of this study was to gain a better understanding of associates of children's ATS, by considering the effects of daily weather patterns and neighbourhood walk ability and neighbourhood preferences (i.e., for living in a high or low walkable neighbourhood) on this behaviour. METHODS: Data were drawn from the Understanding Relationships between Activity and Neighbourhoods study, a cross-sectional study of physical activity and the built environment in adults and children in four New Zealand cities. Parents of participating children completed an interview and daily trip diary that assessed their child's mode of travel to school, household and individual demographic information, and parental neighbourhood preference. Daily weather data were downloaded from New Zealand's national climate database. Geographic information systems-derived variables were calculated for distance to school and neighbourhood walkability. Bivariate analyses were conducted with ATS and potential associates; factors related to ATS at p less than 0.20 were considered simultaneously in generalized estimation equation models, and backwards elimination of non-significant factors was conducted; city was treated as a fixed effect in all models. RESULTS: A total of 217 children aged 6.5-15 years participated in this study. Female sex, age, city, household income, limited/no car access, residing in zone of school, shorter distance to school, neighbourhood self selection, rainfall, and sunlight hours were simultaneously considered in multivariate generalised estimation equation modelling (all p less than 0.20 in bivariate analyses). After elimination of non-significant factors, age (p = 0.005), shorter distance to school (p less than 0.001), city (p = 0.03), and neighbourhood self selection (p = 0.04) remained significantly associated with ATS in the multivariate analysis. CONCLUSION: Distance to school is the prevailing environmental influencing factor on children's ATS. This study, in conjunction with previous research, suggests that school siting is likely an important associate of children's ATS