Time Series Forecasting Using Arima Methodology with Application on Census Data in Iraq

In this paper, the methodology of Box-Jenkins of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) has been used for applying and forecasting the census in Iraq by taking (61) observations of the annually census from 1950 to 2010. Several adequate models of time series have been built and some of the performance criteria have been used for the purpose of comparison between models. Results of the analysis showed that the ARI(2,2) model is adequate to be used to forecast the annually census data of Iraq. During the period 2011 to 2020, there will be (33.58%) increase in the population, and the population of Iraq in 2020 would be (41358200) persons

A 6-Year Update on the Diversity of Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus Clones in Africa: A Systematic Review

Background: Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is a leading cause of hospital-associated (HA) and community-associated (CA) infections globally. The multi-drug resistant nature of this pathogen and its capacity to cause outbreaks in hospital and community settings highlight the need for effective interventions, including its surveillance for prevention and control. This study provides an update on the clonal distribution of MRSA in Africa. Methods: A systematic review was conducted by screening for eligible English, French, and Arabic articles from November 2014 to December 2020, using six electronic databases (PubMed, EBSCOhost, Web of Science, Scopus, African Journals Online, and Google Scholar). Data were retrieved and analyzed according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis guidelines (registered at PROSPERO: CRD42021277238). Genotyping data was based primarily on multilocus sequence types (STs) and Staphylococcal Cassette Chromosome mec (SCCmec) types. We utilized the Phyloviz algorithm in the cluster analysis and categorization of the MRSA STs into various clonal complexes (CCs). Results: We identified 65 studies and 26 publications from 16 of 54 (30%) African countries that provided sufficient genotyping data. MRSA with diverse staphylococcal protein A (spa) and SCCmec types in CC5 and CC8 were reported across the continent. The ST5-IV [2B] and ST8-IV [2B] were dominant clones in Angola and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), respectively. Also, ST88-IV [2B] was widely distributed across the continent, particularly in three Portuguese-speaking countries (Angola, Cape Verde, and São Tomé and Príncipe). The ST80-IV [2B] was described in Algeria and Egypt, while the HA-ST239/ST241-III [3A] was only identified in Egypt, Ghana, Kenya, and South Africa. ST152-MRSA was documented in the DRC, Kenya, Nigeria, and South Africa. Panton–Valentine leukocidin (PVL)-positive MRSA was observed in several CCs across the continent. The median prevalence of PVL-positive MRSA was 33% (ranged from 0 to 77%; n = 15). Conclusion: We observed an increase in the distribution of ST1, ST22, and ST152, but a decline of ST239/241 in Africa. Data on MRSA clones in Africa is still limited. There is a need to strengthen genomic surveillance capacity based on a “One-Health” strategy to prevent and control MRSA in Africa.Peer Reviewe

Longitudinal Population Dynamics of Staphylococcus aureus in the Nasopharynx During the First Year of Life

Background:Staphylococcus aureus colonization is a risk factor for invasive disease. Few studies have used strain genotype data to study S. aureus acquisition and carriage patterns. We investigated S. aureus nasopharyngeal carriage in infants in an intensively sampled South African birth cohort.Methods: Nasopharyngeal swabs were collected at birth and fortnightly from 137 infants through their first year of life. S. aureus was characterized by spa-typing. The incidence of S. aureus acquisition, and median carriage duration for each genotype was determined. S. aureus carriage patterns were defined by combining the carrier index (proportion of samples testing positive for S. aureus) with genotype diversity measures. Persistent or prolonged carriage were defined by a carrier index ≥0.8 or ≥0.5, respectively. Risk factors for time to acquisition of S. aureus were determined.Results: Eighty eight percent (121/137) of infants acquired S. aureus at least once. The incidence of acquisition at the species and genotype level was 1.83 and 2.8 episodes per child-year, respectively. No children had persistent carriage (defined as carrier index of >0.8). At the species level 6% had prolonged carriage, while only 2% had prolonged carriage with the same genotype. Carrier index correlated with the absolute number of spa-CCs carried by each infant (r = 0.5; 95% CI 0.35–0.62). Time to first acquisition of S. aureus was shorter in children from households with ≥5 individuals (HR 1.06, 95% CI 1.07–1.43), with S. aureus carrier mothers (HR; 1.5, 95% CI 1.2–2.47), or with a positive tuberculin skin test during the first year of life (HR; 1.81, 95% CI 0.97–3.3).Conclusion: Using measures of genotype diversity, we showed that S. aureus NP carriage is highly dynamic in infants. Prolonged carriage with a single strain occurred rarely; persistent carriage was not observed. A correlation was observed between carrier index and genotype diversity

A Commensal Helicobacter sp. of the Rodent Intestinal Flora Activates TLR2 and NOD1 Responses in Epithelial Cells

Helicobacter spp. represent a proportionately small but significant component of the normal intestinal microflora of animal hosts. Several of these intestinal Helicobacter spp. are known to induce colitis in mouse models, yet the mechanisms by which these bacteria induce intestinal inflammation are poorly understood. To address this question, we performed in vitro co-culture experiments with mouse and human epithelial cell lines stimulated with a selection of Helicobacter spp., including known pathogenic species as well as ones for which the pathogenic potential is less clear. Strikingly, a member of the normal microflora of rodents, Helicobacter muridarum, was found to be a particularly strong inducer of CXC chemokine (Cxcl1/KC, Cxcl2/MIP-2) responses in a murine intestinal epithelial cell line. Time-course studies revealed a biphasic pattern of chemokine responses in these cells, with H. muridarum lipopolysaccharide (LPS) mediating early (24–48 h) responses and live bacteria seeming to provoke later (48–72 h) responses. H. muridarum LPS per se was shown to induce CXC chemokine production in HEK293 cells stably expressing Toll-like receptor 2 (TLR2), but not in those expressing TLR4. In contrast, live H. muridarum bacteria were able to induce NF-κB reporter activity and CXC chemokine responses in TLR2–deficient HEK293 and in AGS epithelial cells. These responses were attenuated by transient transfection with a dominant negative construct to NOD1, and by stable expression of NOD1 siRNA, respectively. Thus, the data suggest that both TLR2 and NOD1 may be involved in innate immune sensing of H. muridarum by epithelial cells. This work identifies H. muridarum as a commensal bacterium with pathogenic potential and underscores the potential roles of ill-defined members of the normal flora in the initiation of inflammation in animal hosts. We suggest that H. muridarum may act as a confounding factor in colitis model studies in rodents

Genetic diversity and risk factors for the transmission of antimicrobial resistance across human, animals and environmental compartments in East Africa: a review.

BACKGROUND The emergence and spread of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) present a challenge to disease control in East Africa. Resistance to beta-lactams, which are by far the most used antibiotics worldwide and include the penicillins, cephalosporins, monobactams and carbapenems, is reducing options for effective control of both Gram-positive and Gram-negative bacteria. The World Health Organization, Food and Agricultural Organization and the World Organization for Animal Health have all advocated surveillance of AMR using an integrated One Health approach. Regional consortia also have strengthened collaboration to address the AMR problem through surveillance, training and research in a holistic and multisectoral approach. This review paper contains collective information on risk factors for transmission, clinical relevance and diversity of resistance genes relating to extended-spectrum beta-lactamase-producing (ESBL) and carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae, and Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) across the human, animal and environmental compartments in East Africa. MAIN BODY The review of the AMR literature (years 2001 to 2019) was performed using search engines such as PubMed, Scopus, Science Direct, Google and Web of Science. The search terms included 'antimicrobial resistance and human-animal-environment', 'antimicrobial resistance, risk factors, genetic diversity, and human-animal-environment' combined with respective countries of East Africa. In general, the risk factors identified were associated with the transmission of AMR. The marked genetic diversity due to multiple sequence types among drug-resistant bacteria and their replicon plasmid types sourced from the animal, human and environment were reported. The main ESBL, MRSA and carbapenem related genes/plasmids were the CTX-Ms (45.7%), SCCmec type III (27.3%) and IMP types (23.8%), respectively. CONCLUSION The high diversity of the AMR genes suggests there may be multiple sources of resistance bacteria, or the possible exchange of strains or a flow of genes amongst different strains due to transfer by mobile genetic elements. Therefore, there should be harmonized One Health guidelines for the use of antibiotics, as well as regulations governing their importation and sale. Moreover, the trend of ESBLs, MRSA and carbapenem resistant (CAR) carriage rates is dynamic and are on rise over time period, posing a public health concern in East Africa. Collaborative surveillance of AMR in partnership with regional and external institutions using an integrated One Health approach is required for expert knowledge and technology transfer to facilitate information sharing for informed decision-making

Diversity of Staphylococcus aureus Isolates in European Wildlife

Staphylococcus aureus is a well-known colonizer and cause of infection among animals and it has been described from numerous domestic and wild animal species. The aim of the present study was to investigate the molecular epidemiology of S. aureus in a convenience sample of European wildlife and to review what previously has been observed in the subject field. 124 S. aureus isolates were collected from wildlife in Germany, Austria and Sweden; they were characterized by DNA microarray hybridization and, for isolates with novel hybridization patterns, by multilocus sequence typing (MLST). The isolates were assigned to 29 clonal complexes and singleton sequence types (CC1, CC5, CC6, CC7, CC8, CC9, CC12, CC15, CC22, CC25, CC30, CC49, CC59, CC88, CC97, CC130, CC133, CC398, ST425, CC599, CC692, CC707, ST890, CC1956, ST2425, CC2671, ST2691, CC2767 and ST2963), some of which (ST2425, ST2691, ST2963) were not described previously. Resistance rates in wildlife strains were rather low and mecA-MRSA isolates were rare (n = 6). mecC-MRSA (n = 8) were identified from a fox, a fallow deer, hares and hedgehogs. The common cattle- associated lineages CC479 and CC705 were not detected in wildlife in the present study while, in contrast, a third common cattle lineage, CC97, was found to be common among cervids. No Staphylococcus argenteus or Staphylococcus schweitzeri-like isolates were found. Systematic studies are required to monitor the possible transmission of human- and livestock- associated S. aureus/MRSA to wildlife and vice versa as well as the possible transmission, by unprotected contact to animals. The prevalence of S. aureus/MRSA in wildlife as well as its population structures in different wildlife host species warrants further investigation

Carbapenem resistance expressed by Gram-negative bacilli isolated from a cohort of Libyan patients

Background and objectives: Carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE) and other Gram-negative bacteria are among the most common pathogens responsible for both community and hospital acquired infection. The global spread of cephalosporinases in Enterobacteriaceae has led to the increased use of carbapenems resulting in the emergence and rapid spread of CRE. This has become an alarming public health concern, yet the condition in Libya remains unclear. The aim of this study was to obtain a better understanding of CRE strains prevalent in Libyan patients by investigating their phenotypic characteristics and antibiograms. Methods: Gram-negative bacterial species were collected from Misrata Central Hospital, Misrata Cancer Centre and Privet Pathology Laboratories. Clinical samples and swabs were obtained from hospitalised and non-hospitalised patients and from mechanical ventilation and suction machines. Patients who had received antibiotic therapy for at least three days prior to the study were excluded. The identification and characterization of the isolated species were achieved using the growth characteristics on MacConkey and blood agar, spot tests and API 20E or API 20NE biochemical testing systems. Screening for carbapenem resistance was performed using the disk diffusion method with carbapenem 10 μg and cephalosporin 30 μg disks and minimum inhibitory concentrations (MIC) determined using the Sensititre Gram-negative Xtra plate format (GNX2F). All strains demonstrating resistance or reduced susceptibility to one of the four carbapenems were subjected to carbapenememase activity detection using the RAPIDEC CARBA NP test, Modified Hodge test and carbapenem inactivation methods. Results: A total of one hundred and forty isolates representing fourteen bacterial species were isolated from 140 non-duplicated specimens. Clinical specimens included urine samples (96/140, 68.57%), sputum (15/140, 10.71%), surgical wound swabs (18/140, 12.85%), foot swabs from diabetes mellitus (DM) patients (6/140, 4.29%), ear swabs (3/140, 2.14%) and wound swabs (2/140, 1.43%). Thirty-four (24.29%) isolates demonstrated resistance to at least one of the four carbapenems with Klebsiella pneumoniae representing 73.53% (25 isolates) of all carbapenem resistant species, followed by 8.82% for Pseudomonas aeruginosa (3 isolates), 5.88% for both Proteus mirabilis (2 isolates) and Escherichia coli (2 isolates) and 2.94% for both Citrobacter koseri (1 isolate) and Rahnella aquatilis (1 isolate). The other isolates were either susceptible or cephalosporinase producers. Conclusion: This study has revealed the high rate of carbapenem resistance amongst Libyan patients and emphasizes the crucial need for accurate screening, identification and susceptibility testing to prevent further spread of nosocomial and community acquired resistance. This may be achieved through the establishment of antibiotic stewardship programmes along with firm infection control practices.National Research Foundation of South Africa; Libyan GovernmentWeb of Scienc

The prevalence and molecular mechanisms of mupirocin resistance in Staphylococcus aureus isolates from a Hospital in Cape Town, South Africa

CITATION: Abdulgader, S. M., et al. 2020. The prevalence and molecular mechanisms of mupirocin resistance in Staphylococcus aureus isolates from a Hospital in Cape Town, South Africa. Antimicrobial Resistance and Infection Control, 9:47, doi:10.1186/s13756-020-00707-8.The original publication is available at https://aricjournal.biomedcentral.comPublication of this article was funded by the Stellenbosch University Open Access FundAbstract Background: Antimicrobial resistance is an increasingly serious problem in public health globally. Monitoring resistance levels within healthcare and community settings is critical to combat its ongoing increase. This study aimed to describe the rates and molecular mechanisms of mupirocin resistance in clinical Staphylococcus aureus isolates from Tygerberg Hospital, and to describe its association with strain types. Methods: We retrospectively selected 212 S. aureus isolates which were identified from blood samples and pus swabs during the years 2009–2011 and 2015–2017. The isolates were identified using conventional microbiological methods and genotyping was done using spa typing. Cefoxitin (30 μg) disc diffusion and the two disc strategy (5 μg and 200 μg) were used to determine susceptibility to methicillin and mupirocin, respectively. Isolates with high-level resistance were screened for the plasmid mediated genes mupA and mupB by PCR, and sequencing of the ileS gene was done for all isolates exhibiting low-level resistance to describe the mutations associated with this phenotype. Chi-square test was used to assess the associations between mupirocin resistance and S. aureus genotypes. Results: Of 212 S. aureus isolates, 12% (n = 25) were resistant to mupirocin, and 44% (n = 93) were methicillin resistant. Strain typing identified 73 spa types with spa t045 being the most predominant constituting 11% of the isolates. High-level mupirocin resistance was observed in 2% (n = 5), and low-level resistance in 9% (n = 20) of the isolates. The prevalence of high-level mupirocin resistance amongst MRSA and MSSA was 4 and 1% respectively, while the prevalence of low-level mupirocin resistance was significantly higher in MRSA (18%) compared to MSSA (3%), (p = 0.032). mupA was the only resistance determinant for high-level resistance, and the IleS mutation V588F was identified in 95% of the isolates which showed low-level resistance. A significant association was observed between spa type t032 and high-level mupirocin resistance, and types t037 and t012 and low-level resistance (p < 0.0001). Conclusion: The study reported higher rates of low-level mupirocin resistance compared to high-level resistance, and in our setting, mupirocin resistance was driven by certain genotypes. Our study advocates for the continuous screening for mupirocin resistance in S. aureus in clinical settings to better guide treatment and prescribing practices. Background Antimicrobial resistance is an increasingly serious problem in public health globally. Monitoring resistance levels within healthcare and community settings is critical to combat its ongoing increase. This study aimed to describe the rates and molecular mechanisms of mupirocin resistance in clinical Staphylococcus aureus isolates from Tygerberg Hospital, and to describe its association with strain types. Methods We retrospectively selected 212 S. aureus isolates which were identified from blood samples and pus swabs during the years 2009–2011 and 2015–2017. The isolates were identified using conventional microbiological methods and genotyping was done using spa typing. Cefoxitin (30 μg) disc diffusion and the two disc strategy (5 μg and 200 μg) were used to determine susceptibility to methicillin and mupirocin, respectively. Isolates with high-level resistance were screened for the plasmid mediated genes mupA and mupB by PCR, and sequencing of the ileS gene was done for all isolates exhibiting low-level resistance to describe the mutations associated with this phenotype. Chi-square test was used to assess the associations between mupirocin resistance and S. aureus genotypes. Results Of 212 S. aureus isolates, 12% (n = 25) were resistant to mupirocin, and 44% (n = 93) were methicillin resistant. Strain typing identified 73 spa types with spa t045 being the most predominant constituting 11% of the isolates. High-level mupirocin resistance was observed in 2% (n = 5), and low-level resistance in 9% (n = 20) of the isolates. The prevalence of high-level mupirocin resistance amongst MRSA and MSSA was 4 and 1% respectively, while the prevalence of low-level mupirocin resistance was significantly higher in MRSA (18%) compared to MSSA (3%), (p = 0.032). mupA was the only resistance determinant for high-level resistance, and the IleS mutation V588F was identified in 95% of the isolates which showed low-level resistance. A significant association was observed between spa type t032 and high-level mupirocin resistance, and types t037 and t012 and low-level resistance (p <  0.0001). Conclusion The study reported higher rates of low-level mupirocin resistance compared to high-level resistance, and in our setting, mupirocin resistance was driven by certain genotypes. Our study advocates for the continuous screening for mupirocin resistance in S. aureus in clinical settings to better guide treatment and prescribing practices.https://aricjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13756-020-00707-8Publisher's versio

Der Einfluss von Eigenspannungen in 100Cr6 auf die mittels Hochgeschwindigkeitsflammspritzen (HVOF) erzeugten WC-Co Schichten

Die Untersuchung der induzierten Eigenspannungen beim thermischen Spritzen ist für das eingehende Verständnis des Schichtverhaltens unerlässlich. Durch das thermische Spritzen können, aufgrund verschiedener Mechanismen, unterschiedliche Arten von Ei-genspannungen induziert werden. Auf der Substratseite können die Eigenspannungen infolge von Erwärmen und Kühlen des Substrates bei der Wärmebehandlung, durch den Aufprall der Strahlpartikel bei der Aufrauhung der Substratoberfläche sowie während der Beschichtung hervorgerufen werden. Die Eigenspannungen in der Beschichtung ent-stehen hauptsächlich durch das Abschrecken der auftreffenden Spritzpartikeln. Die in-duzierten Spannungen wirken sich direkt auf die Verschleißfestigkeit und Haftfestigkeit der erzeugten Schichten aus. Diese Arbeit untersucht den Zusammenhang zwischen Ei-genspannungen, die durch die Wärmebehandlung und die Aufrauhung des Substrates induziert wurden, und die Makrostrukturen sowie dem Verschleißverhalten der erzeug-ten Schichten. Um die Wirkung der Wärmebehandlung zu untersuchen, wurden Lager-stahlproben aus 100Cr6 in drei Härtegraden verwendet. Die Proben wurden zunächst durch Sandstrahlen oberflächlich aufgeraut und anschließend mittels HVOF mit WC-Co beschichtet. Die Wärmebehandlung verschiebt die Eigenspannungen von 100Cr6 in den Bereich erhöhter Zugspannung. Bei den durch das Sandstrahlen induzierten Span-nungen handelt es sich, wie auch in den aufgetragenen Schichten, um Druckspannungen. Einen starken Einfluss auf die induzierten Spannungen hat die Verweilzeit der Spritz-flamme auf dem Substrat während des Beschichtungsprozesses. Ein Effekt auf die Pha-senzusammensetzung der erzeugten Schichten durch die induzierten Eigenspannungen ist nicht zu beobachten