1,116 research outputs found
Practical bounds on the error of Bayesian posterior approximations: A nonasymptotic approach
Bayesian inference typically requires the computation of an approximation to
the posterior distribution. An important requirement for an approximate
Bayesian inference algorithm is to output high-accuracy posterior mean and
uncertainty estimates. Classical Monte Carlo methods, particularly Markov Chain
Monte Carlo, remain the gold standard for approximate Bayesian inference
because they have a robust finite-sample theory and reliable convergence
diagnostics. However, alternative methods, which are more scalable or apply to
problems where Markov Chain Monte Carlo cannot be used, lack the same
finite-data approximation theory and tools for evaluating their accuracy. In
this work, we develop a flexible new approach to bounding the error of mean and
uncertainty estimates of scalable inference algorithms. Our strategy is to
control the estimation errors in terms of Wasserstein distance, then bound the
Wasserstein distance via a generalized notion of Fisher distance. Unlike
computing the Wasserstein distance, which requires access to the normalized
posterior distribution, the Fisher distance is tractable to compute because it
requires access only to the gradient of the log posterior density. We
demonstrate the usefulness of our Fisher distance approach by deriving bounds
on the Wasserstein error of the Laplace approximation and Hilbert coresets. We
anticipate that our approach will be applicable to many other approximate
inference methods such as the integrated Laplace approximation, variational
inference, and approximate Bayesian computationComment: 22 pages, 2 figure
Solid deuterium surface degradation at ultracold neutron sources
Solid deuterium (sD_2) is used as an efficient converter to produce ultracold
neutrons (UCN). It is known that the sD_2 must be sufficiently cold, of high
purity and mostly in its ortho-state in order to guarantee long lifetimes of
UCN in the solid from which they are extracted into vacuum. Also the UCN
transparency of the bulk sD_2 material must be high because crystal
inhomogeneities limit the mean free path for elastic scattering and reduce the
extraction efficiency. Observations at the UCN sources at Paul Scherrer
Institute and at Los Alamos National Laboratory consistently show a decrease of
the UCN yield with time of operation after initial preparation or later
treatment (`conditioning') of the sD_2. We show that, in addition to the
quality of the bulk sD_2, the quality of its surface is essential. Our
observations and simulations support the view that the surface is deteriorating
due to a build-up of D_2 frost-layers under pulsed operation which leads to
strong albedo reflections of UCN and subsequent loss. We report results of UCN
yield measurements, temperature and pressure behavior of deuterium during
source operation and conditioning, and UCN transport simulations. This,
together with optical observations of sD_2 frost formation on initially
transparent sD_2 in offline studies with pulsed heat input at the North
Carolina State University UCN source results in a consistent description of the
UCN yield decrease.Comment: 15 pages, 22 figures, accepted by EPJ-
Comparison of ultracold neutron sources for fundamental physics measurements
Ultracold neutrons (UCNs) are key for precision studies of fundamental
parameters of the neutron and in searches for new CP violating processes or
exotic interactions beyond the Standard Model of particle physics. The most
prominent example is the search for a permanent electric dipole moment of the
neutron (nEDM). We have performed an experimental comparison of the leading UCN
sources currently operating. We have used a 'standard' UCN storage bottle with
a volume of 32 liters, comparable in size to nEDM experiments, which allows us
to compare the UCN density available at a given beam port.Comment: 20 pages, 30 Figure
A highly stable atomic vector magnetometer based on free spin precession
We present a magnetometer based on optically pumped Cs atoms that measures
the magnitude and direction of a 1 T magnetic field. Multiple circularly
polarized laser beams were used to probe the free spin precession of the Cs
atoms. The design was optimized for long-time stability and achieves a scalar
resolution better than 300 fT for integration times ranging from 80 ms to 1000
s. The best scalar resolution of less than 80 fT was reached with integration
times of 1.6 to 6 s. We were able to measure the magnetic field direction with
a resolution better than 10 rad for integration times from 10 s up to 2000
s
Observation of Scaling Violations in Scaled Momentum Distributions at HERA
Charged particle production has been measured in deep inelastic scattering
(DIS) events over a large range of and using the ZEUS detector. The
evolution of the scaled momentum, , with in the range 10 to 1280
, has been investigated in the current fragmentation region of the Breit
frame. The results show clear evidence, in a single experiment, for scaling
violations in scaled momenta as a function of .Comment: 21 pages including 4 figures, to be published in Physics Letters B.
Two references adde
- …