On Elo based prediction models for the FIFA Worldcup 2018

We propose an approach for the analysis and prediction of a football championship. It is based on Poisson regression models that include the Elo points of the teams as covariates and incorporates differences of team-specific effects. These models for the prediction of the FIFA World Cup 2018 are fitted on all football games on neutral ground of the participating teams since 2010. Based on the model estimates for single matches Monte-Carlo simulations are used to estimate probabilities for reaching the different stages in the FIFA World Cup 2018 for all teams. We propose two score functions for ordinal random variables that serve together with the rank probability score for the validation of our models with the results of the FIFA World Cups 2010 and 2014. All models favor Germany as the new FIFA World Champion. All possible courses of the tournament and their probabilities are visualized using a single Sankey diagram.Comment: 22 pages, 7 figure

Branching Random Walks on Free Products of Groups

We study certain phase transitions of branching random walks (BRW) on Cayley graphs of free products. The aim of this paper is to compare the size and structural properties of the trace, i.e., the subgraph that consists of all edges and vertices that were visited by some particle, with those of the original Cayley graph. We investigate the phase when the growth parameter $\lambda$ is small enough such that the process survives but the trace is not the original graph. A first result is that the box-counting dimension of the boundary of the trace exists, is almost surely constant and equals the Hausdorff dimension which we denote by $\Phi(\lambda)$. The main result states that the function $\Phi(\lambda)$ has only one point of discontinuity which is at $\lambda_{c}=R$ where $R$ is the radius of convergence of the Green function of the underlying random walk. Furthermore, $\Phi(R)$ is bounded by one half the Hausdorff dimension of the boundary of the original Cayley graph and the behaviour of $\Phi(R)-\Phi(\lambda)$ as $\lambda \uparrow R$ is classified. In the case of free products of infinite groups the end-boundary can be decomposed into words of finite and words of infinite length. We prove the existence of a phase transition such that if $\lambda\leq \tilde\lambda_{c}$ the end boundary of the trace consists only of infinite words and if $\lambda>\tilde\lambda_{c}$ it also contains finite words. In the last case, the Hausdorff dimension of the set of ends (of the trace and the original graph) induced by finite words is strictly smaller than the one of the ends induced by infinite words.Comment: 39 pages, 4 figures; final version, accepted for publication in the Proceedings of LM

Microbially assisted recording of the Earth's magnetic field in sediment

Sediments continuously record variations of the Earth's magnetic field and thus provide an important archive for studying the geodynamo. The recording process occurs as magnetic grains partially align with the geomagnetic field during and after sediment deposition, generating a depositional remanent magnetization (DRM) or post-DRM (PDRM). (P) DRM acquisition mechanisms have been investigated for over 50 years, yet many aspects remain unclear. A key issue concerns the controversial role of bioturbation, that is, the mechanical disturbance of sediment by benthic organisms, during PDRM acquisition. A recent theory on bioturbation-driven PDRM appears to solve many inconsistencies between laboratory experiments and palaeomagnetic records, yet it lacks experimental proof. Here we fill this gap by documenting the important role of bioturbation-induced rotational diffusion for (P) DRM acquisition, including the control exerted on the recorded inclination and intensity, as determined by the equilibrium between aligning and perturbing torques acting on magnetic particles

Microbially assisted recording of the Earth's magnetic field in sediment

Sediments continuously record variations of the Earth's magnetic field and thus provide an important archive for studying the geodynamo. The recording process occurs as magnetic grains partially align with the geomagnetic field during and after sediment deposition, generating a depositional remanent magnetization (DRM) or post-DRM (PDRM). (P) DRM acquisition mechanisms have been investigated for over 50 years, yet many aspects remain unclear. A key issue concerns the controversial role of bioturbation, that is, the mechanical disturbance of sediment by benthic organisms, during PDRM acquisition. A recent theory on bioturbation-driven PDRM appears to solve many inconsistencies between laboratory experiments and palaeomagnetic records, yet it lacks experimental proof. Here we fill this gap by documenting the important role of bioturbation-induced rotational diffusion for (P) DRM acquisition, including the control exerted on the recorded inclination and intensity, as determined by the equilibrium between aligning and perturbing torques acting on magnetic particles

Dual Laser Beam Processing of Semiconducting Thin Films by Excited State Absorption

We present a unique dual laser beam processing approach based on excited state absorption by structuring 200 nm thin zinc oxide films sputtered on fused silica substrates. The combination of two pulsed nanosecond-laser beams with different photon energies—one below and one above the zinc oxide band gap energy—allows for a precise, efficient, and homogeneous ablation of the films without substrate damage. Based on structuring experiments in dependence on laser wavelength, pulse fluence, and pulse delay of both laser beams, a detailed concept of energy transfer and excitation processes during irradiation was developed. It provides a comprehensive understanding of the thermal and electronic processes during ablation. To quantify the efficiency improvements of the dual-beam process compared to single-beam ablation, a simple efficiency model was developed

Photostabilisation of an omniphobic, drop-castable surface coating by transformation of a self-assembled supramolecular xerogel into a covalent polymer xerogel

Simple drop-casting of a new gelator, incorporating a diacetylene core and fluorous ponytails, yields porous xerogels as surface coatings. The mechanical stability of such coatings is quantified with a self-devised scratch balance, introducing a simple and universal quantification method to compare the stability of μm-scale coatings. The diameters of the pores in the coatings can be controlled by the breath figure effect. The coatings display omniphobicity with static contact angles of up to 139° (water) and 96° (n-decane). The coatings are topochemically polymerised by UV irradiation, enhancing the mechanical stability by up to four times. Simultaneously, the water and n-decane contact angles are increased by about 9° and 4° respectively due to a slight increase in surface roughness

Cavovarus deformity in Charcot-Marie-Tooth disease: is there a hindfoot equinus deformity that needs treatment?

Background: Charcot-Marie-Tooth disease (CMT), one of the most common hereditary neurologic disorders, often results in debilitating cavovarus foot deformities. The deformities are still not fully understood, and the treatment recommendations are consequently heterogeneous, often including calf muscle or Achilles tendon lengthening. Methods: We examined 40 patients (80 feet) with CMT and bilateral cavovarus deformities (19 men and 21 women, mean age 33.6 ± 14.6 years) and the feet of a healthy control population of 13 individuals (7 men and 6 women, mean age 43.9 ± 10.8 years). In all cases 3D instrumented gait analysis results with both conventional Plug-in-Gait analysis and the Heidelberg Foot Measurement Method (HFMM) were used to determine the sagittal plane kinematics, dorsi-plantar flexion (DPF), tibio-talar dorsiflexion (TTDF), and medial arch angle (MAA), and the results of patients and the control group were compared using the 2 methods. Decreased and increased dorsiflexion using TTDF was defined as 1 standard deviation below or above the mean of the control. Comparisons were done using descriptive statistics, the Pearson correlation coefficient and ANOVA. Results: The TTDF was found to be decreased in 18 of the 80 feet examined (22.5 %), normal in 31 feet (38.75 %), and increased in 31 feet (38.75 %). The Pearson coefficient showed a positive correlation with R = 0.765, p < 0.001 between decreased TTDF values found by HFMM and decreased DPF values found with conventional Plug-in-Gait analysis, but a very weak correlation in patients with normal TTDF (R = -0.118) and increased TTDF (R = 0.078). Also, in patients with decreased TTDF values, there was a weak to moderate correlation with the MAA (R = 0.335), but no correlation between the MAA and DPF (R = 0.023). Conclusions: The HFMM, unlike the conventional Plug-in-Gait analysis, distinguishes between the segments of the foot in foot deformities and facilitates evaluation of the hindfoot equinus component in patients with CMT and cavovarus deformity. Although there is a significant correlation between decreased TTDF with HFMM and decreased DPF with conventional Plug-in-Gait analysis, this correlation was not seen in patients with normal or increased TTDF values. Conventional Plug-in-Gait analysis alone does not indicate if an increased plantar flexion deformity is the result of either a cavus deformity or hindfoot equinus deformity, which limits its usefulness in assisting in treatment decision making

Improvement in the decadal prediction skill of the North Atlantic extratropical winter circulation through increased model resolution

In this study the latest version of the MiKlip decadal hindcast system is analyzed, and the effect of an increased horizontal and vertical resolution on the prediction skill of the extratropical winter circulation is assessed. Four different metrics – the storm track, blocking, cyclone and windstorm frequencies – are analyzed in the North Atlantic and European region. The model bias and the deterministic decadal hindcast skill are evaluated in ensembles of five members in a lower-resolution version (LR, atm: T63L47, ocean: 1.5∘ L40) and a higher-resolution version (HR, atm: T127L95, ocean: 0.4∘ L40) of the MiKlip system based on the Max Planck Institute Earth System model (MPI-ESM). The skill is assessed for the lead winters 2–5 in terms of the anomaly correlation of the quantities' winter averages using initializations between 1978 and 2012. The deterministic predictions are considered skillful if the anomaly correlation is positive and statistically significant. While the LR version shows common shortcomings of lower-resolution climate models, e.g., a storm track that is too zonal and southward displaced as well as a negative bias of blocking frequencies over the eastern North Atlantic and Europe, the HR version counteracts these biases. Cyclones, i.e., their frequencies and characteristics like strength and lifetime, are particularly better represented in HR. As a result, a chain of significantly improved decadal prediction skill between all four metrics is found with the increase in the spatial resolution. While the skill of the storm track is significantly improved primarily over the main source region of synoptic activity – the North Atlantic Current – the other extratropical quantities experience a significant improvement primarily downstream thereof, i.e., in regions where the synoptic systems typically intensify. Thus, the skill of the cyclone frequencies is significantly improved over the central North Atlantic and northern Europe, the skill of the blocking frequencies is significantly improved over the Mediterranean, Scandinavia and eastern Europe, and the skill of the windstorms is significantly improved over Newfoundland and central Europe. Not only is the skill improved with the increase in resolution, but the HR system itself also exhibits significant skill over large areas of the North Atlantic and European sector for all four circulation metrics. These results are particularly promising regarding the high socioeconomic impact of European winter windstorms and blocking situations