Assessing energy security: An overview of commonly used methodologies

This paper provides an overview of methodologies used for quantitative evaluations of security of supply. The studied material is mainly based on peer-reviewed articles and the methodologies are classified according to which stage in the supply chain their main focus is directed to, as well as their scientific background. Our overview shows that a broad variety of approaches is used, but that there are still some important gaps, especially if the aim is to study energy security in a future-oriented way. First, there is a need to better understand how sources of insecurity can develop over time and how they are affected by the development of the energy system. Second, the current tendency to study the security of supply for each energy carrier separately needs to be complemented by comparisons of different energy carrier's supply chains. Finally, the mainly static perspective on system structure should be complemented with perspectives that to a greater extent take the systems' adaptive capacity and transformability into account, as factors with a potential to reduce the systems vulnerabilities. Furthermore, it may be beneficial to use methodological combinations, conduct more thorough sensitivity analysis and alter the mind-set from securing energy flows to securing energy services

Dental and Periodontal Health in Acute Intermittent Porphyria

In the inherited metabolic disorder acute intermittent porphyria (AIP), high sugar intake prevents porphyric attacks due to the glucose effect and the following high insulin levels that may lower AIP disease activity. Insulin resistance is a known risk factor for periodontitis and sugar changes diabetogenic hormones and affects dental health. We hypothesized differences in homeostasis model assessment (HOMA) scores for insulin resistance in AIP cases vs. controls and in those with periodontitis. Our aim was to systematically study dental health in AIP as poor dental health was previously only described in case reports. Further, we aimed to examine if poor dental health and kidney failure might worsen AIP as chronic inflammation and kidney failure might increase disease activity. In 47 AIP cases and 47 matched controls, X-rays and physical examination of clinical attachment loss (CAL), probing pocket depth (PPD), and decayed missing filled teeth (DMFT) were performed. Dietary intake was evaluated through a diet logbook. Plasma cytokines and diabetogenic hormones were measured using multiplex technology and urine porphobilinogen and kidney and liver function by routine methods. An excel spreadsheet from the University of Oxford was used to estimate HOMA scores; beta cell function, HOMA%B (%B), insulin sensitivity, HOMA%S (%S), and insulin resistance HOMA-IR (IR), based on glucose and plasma (P) C-peptide. The Wilcoxon matched-pairs signed rank test, the Mann–Whitney U-test, and Spearman’s nonparametric correlation were used. Insulin (p = 0.007) and C-peptide (p = 0.006) were higher in the AIP cases with periodontitis versus those without. In AIP patients, the liver fibrosis index 4 correlated with DMFT (p < 0.001) and CAL ≥4 mm (p = 0.006); the estimated glomerular filtration rate correlated with DMFT (p < 0.001) and CAL ≥4 mm (p = 0.02). CAL ≥4 mm was correlated with chemokine ligand 11 and interleukin (IL)-13 (p = 0.04 for both), and PPD >5 mm was correlated with plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 (p = 0.003) and complement component 3 (p = 0.02). In conclusion, dental health in AIP cases was correlated with insulin resistance, inflammatory markers, and biomarkers of kidney and liver function, demonstrating that organ damage in the kidney and liver are associated with poorer dental health

Energy and Security: Exploring Renewable and Efficient Energy Systems

Mitigating climate change will affect energy systems and have consequences that reach beyond environmental policies. The studies presented in this thesis analyse how reducing emissions of greenhouse gases affect (energy) security. The focus is on strategies which improve energy efficiency or increase the share of renewable energy.This thesis is based on five papers in which frameworks for conceptualising and analysing energy security are described and used. Two different aspects of energy security have been studied: i) security in energy systems and ii) how energy systems are related to conflicts that can threaten security.It was found that increasing the share of renewable energy can affect threats to which the energy system is exposed, its sensitivity to disturbances, and its capacity to adapt to change. Both improvement and deterioration may result, which makes it difficult to compare the general level of security. Changes are sometimes minor because of dependencies between renewable and fossil supply chains that enable disturbances to spread. This restricts the possibility to hedge disturbances by the increased use of renewable energy. The effects on security can depend on how external factors develop and the preferences of various actors. It is suggested that energy security can be approached as a subjective concept and that (external) scenarios can be used to test the performance of different strategies. This enables the identification of strategies that are robust or adaptive to external factors, and desirable for different actors. It also strengthens the methodological integration between the fields of energy security, future studies and security studies in general.Concerning conflicts, it was found that renewable energy has a low likelihood of triggering geopolitical conflicts as a result of abundance and low energy density. Renewable energy systems can be exploited in conflicts, for example, by withholding supplies, in the same way as fossil energy. Some bio-energy resources can trigger local conflicts due to the increased use of land and water which, for example, undermine food security.Improving energy efficiency has many benefits with regards to security. It reduces the exposure and sensitivity to price increases and reduces competition for resources. It also enables a higher share of the demand to be met by domestic renewable resources. This increases the adaptive capacity of the energy system

Securing road transport services in Sweden: A multi actor perspective

Energy security is often analysed from a state centric perspective - sometimes as a sub part of national security. That approach disguise the heterogeneity and importance of different actors. This study analyse actor’s roles and capabilities that affect their own and others energy security strategies. The Swedish road transport sector is used as an example. The study also explores how a transition to a low carbon transport system may affect energy security strategies. Actors with three different roles are identified those that govern, operate, and use energy services. Actors manoeuvre at one or several (horizontal) levels (international, national, sub-national) and interact with different (vertical) stages of energy supply chains. Actors’ energy security strategy can be characterised as prevent, make resilient and adapt. A transition to a low carbon road transport system can empower actors at sub-national level and increase their capacity to adapt to change. It can also strengthen options available to increase resilience, depending on the organisation and structure of the system

Energy, conflict and war: Towards a conceptual framework

It is widely recognised that the presence of some fossil fuels and their transport routes can affect the risk of conflicts. Other parts of the energy system and contextual conditions (social, economic or political factors) also matter for such conflicts, but which and how is not as well researched. This paper develops a framework that links characteristics of energy systems with contextual conditions that if combined increases the risk of conflict. The framework also provides a brief theoretical background as well as examples of previous energy conflicts. Examples of energy system characteristic that can affect the risk of conflicts include geographical concentration of primary resources, the number and diversity of exporters on the international energy market, vulnerability of infrastructure to attacks, vulnerability of users to disruptions and externalities related to interconnections with other systems. Contextual conditions include, among other, the rationale of actors to engage in conflict under various circumstances. The capacity of humans and societies to adapt to change should be analysed together with the characteristics of the energy system that place stress on actors. The framework can serve as a tool to identify ‘hotspots’ and, develop more robust energy policies and strategies to anticipate and prevent conflicts

A resource curse for renewables? Conflict and cooperation in the renewable energy sector

Previous studies have shown that fossil energy systems can be a conflict objective, means or cause. This study explores how renewable energy (RE) systems can interact with conflicts and to what extent the risk of different conflicts may change. Renewable resources, in contrast to conventional fossil resources, are more difficult to control in time and space. RE systems depend on exploiting flows rather than extracting stocks, are geographically more evenly distributed, and the energy density is lower. As a consequence, economic and geopolitical incentives for states to engage in conflicts to secure or control RE resources are low. However, increased competition for land increases the risk of local conflicts that involve non-state actors, since it can reduce actor's ecological space. Distribution and use of RE can be designed to have a low risk of interacting with conflicts, but the success of this depends on the technologies implemented and other sustainability policies. Increased dependence on control systems used to manage variable electricity production increase exposure to cyber threats while as small-scale distributed generation reduce incentives to attack the system since such systems are less sensitive to attacks

Energy security in a decarbonised transport sector: A scenario based analysis of Sweden's transport strategies

Previous research has shown that it is possible to decarbonise Sweden's road transport sector. This study develops a scenario based method and analyses the influence of external factors on energy security, focusing on passenger and freight transport. It does so by analysing the vulnerabilities and capabilities of five different climate mitigation strategies, investigating previous security scenarios and identifying uncertain drivers. These are used to develop four consistent exogenous scenarios using cross impact balance analysis. The vulnerabilities and capabilities of the five different strategies are then compared with the challenges faced in the scenarios and the robustness and adaptive capacity of the resulting systems is analysed.The results shows that strategies which reduce the use of energy (increase efficiency or conservation) are robust, but that demand restrictions are perceived as undesirable by some interest groups. Biofuels perform poorly if too many other countries increase their use of biofuel, whereas electrification performs best when many other countries implement this technology. The strategies are not mutually exclusive and simultaneous implementation of some provides synergies for national energy security. Some directions for further research are suggested, such as framing energy security as subjective, i.e. a result of material and contextual factors that co-evolve

Grön företagsanalys - Ett ramverk för utvärdering av miljöintegrering

Purpose: To develop a model, questions and criteria that can be used to assess and benchmark the environmental management performance of firms. Delimitations: An evaluation is not supposed to take more than two weeks to conduct and prerequisites the companies’ full cooperation. Methods: Qualitative and quantitative data was collected from interviews, internal documents and literature studies to determine what aspects are most important when conducting an evaluation. After gathering the data a model was developed. Finally, the model was tested using two different companies to determine if the model was practical to use and if it could capture the essence of a client’s environmental management performance. Conclusion: A model that measures the level of corporate environmental integration needs to consider two aspects, firstly how large portion of a company that is covered by environmental management, secondly the environmental management’s ability to support value creation. A model with ten categories is put forward to measure the level of integration. The categories measures companies internal (i.e. the direct effect), and external (i.e. the indirect influence) environmental management performance. When used together the categories also evaluate the environmental management strategy and its ability to support firm’s value creation