Doubling of World Population Unlikely

Most national and international agencies producing population projections explicitly avoid addressing the issue of uncertainty. Typically, they provide either a single projection or a set of low, medium, and high variants, and only very rarely do they give these projections a probabilistic interpretation. Probabilistic population projections have been developed for specific industrialized countries, mostly the United States, and are based largely on time-series analysis. On a global level, time-series analysis is not applicable because there is a lack of appropriate data, and for conceptual reasons such as the structural discontinuity caused by the demographic transition. Here we report on a new probabilistic approach that makes use of expert opinion on trends in fertility, and on the 90% uncertainty range of those trends in different parts of the world. We have used simulation techniques to derive probability distributions of population sizes and age structures for 13 regions of the world up to the year 2100. Among other things, there is a probability of two-thirds that the world's population will not double in the twenty-first century

Self-Assembly of 4-sided Fractals in the Two-handed Tile Assembly Model

We consider the self-assembly of fractals in one of the most well-studied models of tile based self-assembling systems known as the Two-handed Tile Assembly Model (2HAM). In particular, we focus our attention on a class of fractals called discrete self-similar fractals (a class of fractals that includes the discrete Sierpi\'nski carpet). We present a 2HAM system that finitely self-assembles the discrete Sierpi\'nski carpet with scale factor 1. Moreover, the 2HAM system that we give lends itself to being generalized and we describe how this system can be modified to obtain a 2HAM system that finitely self-assembles one of any fractal from an infinite set of fractals which we call 4-sided fractals. The 2HAM systems we give in this paper are the first examples of systems that finitely self-assemble discrete self-similar fractals at scale factor 1 in a purely growth model of self-assembly. Finally, we show that there exists a 3-sided fractal (which is not a tree fractal) that cannot be finitely self-assembled by any 2HAM system

Pulmonary Predictors of Incident Diabetes in Smokers.

BACKGROUND: Diabetes mellitus and its complications are a large and increasing burden for health care worldwide. Reduced pulmonary function has been observed in diabetes (both type 1 and type 2), and this reduction is thought to occur prior to diagnosis. Other measures of pulmonary health are associated with diabetes, including lower exercise tolerance, greater dyspnea, lower quality of life (as measured by the St. George's Respiratory Questionaire [SGRQ]) and susceptibility to lung infection and these measures may also predate diabetes diagnosis. METHODS: We examined 7080 participants in the COPD Genetic Epidemiology (COPDGene) study who did not report diabetes at their baseline visit and who provided health status updates during 4.2 years of longitudinal follow-up (LFU). We used Cox proportional hazards modeling, censoring participants at final LFU contact, reported mortality or report of incident diabetes to model predictors of diabetes. These models were constructed using known risk factors as well as proposed markers related to pulmonary health, forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1), forced vital capacity (FVC), FEV1/FVC, respiratory exacerbations (RE), 6-minute walk distance (6MWD), pulmonary associated quality of life (as measured by the SGRQ), corticosteroid use, chronic bronchitis and dyspnea. RESULTS: Over 21,519 person years of follow-up, 392 of 7080 participants reported incident diabetes which was associated with expected predictors; increased body mass index (BMI), high blood pressure, high cholesterol and current smoking status. Age, gender and accumulated smoking exposure were not associated with incident diabetes. Additionally, preserved ratio with impaired spirometry (PRISm) pattern pulmonary function, reduced 6MWD and any report of serious pulmonary events were associated with incident diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: This cluster of pulmonary indicators may aid clinicians in identifying and treating patients with pre- or undiagnosed diabetes

The role of magnetic anisotropy in the Kondo effect

In the Kondo effect, a localized magnetic moment is screened by forming a correlated electron system with the surrounding conduction electrons of a non-magnetic host. Spin S=1/2 Kondo systems have been investigated extensively in theory and experiments, but magnetic atoms often have a larger spin. Larger spins are subject to the influence of magnetocrystalline anisotropy, which describes the dependence of the magnetic moment's energy on the orientation of the spin relative to its surrounding atomic environment. Here we demonstrate the decisive role of magnetic anisotropy in the physics of Kondo screening. A scanning tunnelling microscope is used to simultaneously determine the magnitude of the spin, the magnetic anisotropy and the Kondo properties of individual magnetic atoms on a surface. We find that a Kondo resonance emerges for large-spin atoms only when the magnetic anisotropy creates degenerate ground-state levels that are connected by the spin flip of a screening electron. The magnetic anisotropy also determines how the Kondo resonance evolves in a magnetic field: the resonance peak splits at rates that are strongly direction dependent. These rates are well described by the energies of the underlying unscreened spin states.Comment: 14 pages, 4 figures, published in Nature Physic

Metrics to evaluate research performance in academic institutions: A critique of ERA 2010 as applied in forestry and the indirect H2 index as a possible alternative

Excellence for Research in Australia (ERA) is an attempt by the Australian Research Council to rate Australian universities on a 5-point scale within 180 Fields of Research using metrics and peer evaluation by an evaluation committee. Some of the bibliometric data contributing to this ranking suffer statistical issues associated with skewed distributions. Other data are standardised year-by-year, placing undue emphasis on the most recent publications which may not yet have reliable citation patterns. The bibliometric data offered to the evaluation committees is extensive, but lacks effective syntheses such as the h-index and its variants. The indirect H2 index is objective, can be computed automatically and efficiently, is resistant to manipulation, and a good indicator of impact to assist the ERA evaluation committees and to similar evaluations internationally.Comment: 19 pages, 6 figures, 7 tables, appendice

Combination therapy of disseminated coccidioidomycosis with caspofungin and fluconazole

BACKGROUND: The current recommended therapy for diffuse coccidioidal pneumonia involves initial treatment with amphotericin B deoxycholate or high-dose fluconazole, followed by an azole after clinical improvement. Amphotericin B is more frequently used as initial therapy if the patient's deterioration is rapid. CASE PRESENTATION: A 31-year-old Korean male with coccidioidomycosis presented to the hospital with miliary infiltrates on chest X-ray (CXR) and skin rash on the face and trunk. Initially, the patient did not respond to amphotericin B deoxycholate therapy. However, following caspofungin and fluconazole combination therapy, the patient showed favourable radiological, serological, and clinical response. CONCLUSION: This appears to be the first case of diffuse coccidioidal pneumonia with skin involvement in an immunocompetent patient who was treated successfully with caspofungin and fluconazole. Combination therapy with caspofungin and fluconazole may, therefore, be an alternative treatment for diffuse coccidioidal pneumonia that does not respond to amphotericin B deoxycholate therapy

Socio-Economic Instability and the Scaling of Energy Use with Population Size

The size of the human population is relevant to the development of a sustainable world, yet the forces setting growth or declines in the human population are poorly understood. Generally, population growth rates depend on whether new individuals compete for the same energy (leading to Malthusian or density-dependent growth) or help to generate new energy (leading to exponential and super-exponential growth). It has been hypothesized that exponential and super-exponential growth in humans has resulted from carrying capacity, which is in part determined by energy availability, keeping pace with or exceeding the rate of population growth. We evaluated the relationship between energy use and population size for countries with long records of both and the world as a whole to assess whether energy yields are consistent with the idea of an increasing carrying capacity. We find that on average energy use has indeed kept pace with population size over long time periods. We also show, however, that the energy-population scaling exponent plummets during, and its temporal variability increases preceding, periods of social, political, technological, and environmental change. We suggest that efforts to increase the reliability of future energy yields may be essential for stabilizing both population growth and the global socio-economic system

The polygenic nature of telomere length and the anti-ageing properties of lithium

Telomere length is a promising biomarker for age-related disease and a potential anti-ageing drug target. Here, we study the genetic architecture of telomere length and the repositioning potential of lithium as an anti-ageing medication. LD score regression applied to the largest telomere length genome-wide association study to-date, revealed SNP-chip heritability estimates of 7.29%, with polygenic risk scoring capturing 4.4% of the variance in telomere length in an independent cohort (p = 6.17 × 10-5). Gene-enrichment analysis identified 13 genes associated with telomere length, with the most significant being the leucine rich repeat gene, LRRC34 (p = 3.69 × 10-18). In the context of lithium, we confirm that chronic use in a sample of 384 bipolar disorder patients is associated with longer telomeres (p = 0.03). As complementary evidence, we studied three orthologs of telomere length regulators in a Caenorhabditis elegans model of lithium-induced extended longevity and found all transcripts to be affected post-treatment (p  0.05). Consequently, this suggests that lithium may be catalysing the activity of endogenous mechanisms that promote telomere lengthening, whereby its efficacy eventually becomes limited by each individual's inherent telomere maintenance capabilities. Our work indicates a potential use of polygenic risk scoring for the prediction of adult telomere length and consequently lithium's anti-ageing efficacy

Randomised phase I/II study to evaluate carbon ion radiotherapy versus fractionated stereotactic radiotherapy in patients with recurrent or progressive gliomas: The CINDERELLA trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Treatment of patients with recurrent glioma includes neurosurgical resection, chemotherapy, or radiation therapy. In most cases, a full course of radiotherapy has been applied after primary diagnosis, therefore application of re-irradiation has to be applied cauteously. With modern precision photon techniques such as fractionated stereotactic radiotherapy (FSRT), a second course of radiotherapy is safe and effective and leads to survival times of 22, 16 and 8 months for recurrent WHO grade II, III and IV gliomas.</p> <p>Carbon ions offer physical and biological characteristics. Due to their inverted dose profile and the high local dose deposition within the Bragg peak precise dose application and sparing of normal tissue is possible. Moreover, in comparison to photons, carbon ions offer an increased relative biological effectiveness (RBE), which can be calculated between 2 and 5 depending on the GBM cell line as well as the endpoint analyzed. Protons, however, offer an RBE which is comparable to photons.</p> <p>First Japanese Data on the evaluation of carbon ion radiation therapy for the treatment of primary high-grade gliomas showed promising results in a small and heterogeneous patient collective.</p> <p>Methods Design</p> <p>In the current Phase I/II-CINDERELLA-trial re-irradiation using carbon ions will be compared to FSRT applied to the area of contrast enhancement representing high-grade tumor areas in patients with recurrent gliomas. Within the Phase I Part of the trial, the Recommended Dose (RD) of carbon ion radiotherapy will be determined in a dose escalation scheme. In the subsequent randomized Phase II part, the RD will be evaluated in the experimental arm, compared to the standard arm, FSRT with a total dose of 36 Gy in single doses of 2 Gy.</p> <p>Primary endpoint of the Phase I part is toxicity. Primary endpoint of the randomized part II is survival after re-irradiation at 12 months, secondary endpoint is progression-free survival.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>The Cinderella trial is the first study to evaluate carbon ion radiotherapy for recurrent gliomas, and to compare this treatment to photon FSRT in a randomized setting using an ion beam delivered by intensity modulated rasterscanning.</p> <p>Trial Registration</p> <p>NCT01166308</p

The RR Lyrae Distance Scale

We review seven methods of measuring the absolute magnitude M_V of RR Lyrae stars in light of the Hipparcos mission and other recent developments. We focus on identifying possible systematic errors and rank the methods by relative immunity to such errors. For the three most robust methods, statistical parallax, trigonometric parallax, and cluster kinematics, we find M_V (at [Fe/H] = -1.6) of 0.77 +/- 0.13, 0.71 +/- 0.15, 0.67 +/- 0.10. These methods cluster consistently around 0.71 +/- 0.07. We find that Baade-Wesselink and theoretical models both yield a broad range of possible values (0.45-0.70 and 0.45-0.65) due to systematic uncertainties in the temperature scale and input physics. Main-sequence fitting gives a much brighter M_V = 0.45 +/- 0.04 but this may be due to a difference in the metallicity scales of the cluster giants and the calibrating subdwarfs. White-dwarf cooling-sequence fitting gives 0.67 +/- 0.13 and is potentially very robust, but at present is too new to be fully tested for systematics. If the three most robust methods are combined with Walker's mean measurement for 6 LMC clusters, V_{0,LMC} = 18.98 +/- 0.03 at [Fe/H] = -1.9, then mu_{LMC} = 18.33 +/- 0.08.Comment: Invited review article to appear in: `Post-Hipparcos Cosmic Candles', A. Heck & F. Caputo (Eds), Kluwer Academic Publ., Dordrecht, in press. 21 pages including 1 table; uses Kluwer's crckapb.sty LaTeX style file, enclose