Long-term Trends in the Population Ecology of Polar Bears in Western Hudson Bay in Relation to Climatic Change

From 1981 through 1998, the condition of adult male and female polar bears has declined significantly in western Hudson Bay, as have natality and the proportion of yearling cubs caught during the open water period that were independent at the time of capture. Over this same period, the breakup of the sea ice on western Hudson Bay has been occurring earlier. There was a significant positive relationship between the time of breakup and the condition of adult females (i.e., the earlier the breakup, the poorer the condition of the bears). The trend toward earlier breakup was also correlated with rising spring air temperatures over the study area from 1950 to 1990. We suggest that the proximate cause of the decline in physical and reproductive parameters of polar bears in western Hudson Bay over the last 19 years has been a trend toward earlier breakup, which has caused the bears to come ashore in progressively poorer condition. The ultimate factor responsible for the earlier breakup in western Hudson Bay appears to be a long-term warming trend in April-June atmospheric temperatures.De 1981 à la fin de 1998, la condition physique de l'ours polaire adulte, mâle et femelle, s'est détériorée de façon importante dans l'ouest de la baie d'Hudson, tout comme le nombre de naissances et la proportion d'oursons de l'année pris durant la période d'eau libre, et qui étaient indépendants au moment de leur capture. Au cours de la même période, la débâcle de la banquise sur l'ouest de la baie d'Hudson s'est produite plus tôt. Il existait un lien très marqué entre le moment de la débâcle et la condition physique des femelles adultes (c.-à-d. que plus la débâcle se produisait tôt, plus les ourses étaient en mauvaise condition physique). La tendance à une débâcle précoce était également corrélée à l'augmentation de la température ambiante printanière dans la zone d'étude de 1950 à 1990. On suggère que la cause immédiate du déclin des paramètres physiques et reproducteurs de l'ours polaire dans l'ouest de la baie d'Hudson au cours des derniers 19 ans a été une tendance à une débâcle précoce, ce qui amené les ours à venir sur la terre ferme dans un état de plus en plus mauvais. Le facteur responsable de la débâcle précoce dans la baie d'Hudson semble être en fin de compte la tendance au réchauffement à long terme de l'atmosphère en avril et en juin

Variation in Ringed Seal Density and Abundance in Western Hudson Bay Estimated from Aerial Surveys, 1995 to 2013

We conducted systematic aerial surveys of ringed seals along strip transects in western Hudson Bay (WHB), Canada, in late May to early June of 1995–97, 1999, 2000, 2007–10, and 2013. The density of ringed seals hauled out on ice over the entire study area ranged from 1.22 seals/km2 in 1995, to 0.20 seals/km2 in 2013. Density estimates varied significantly over the study period and, with the exception of 2013, appeared to follow a cyclical pattern. Although density estimates also appear to follow a downward trend over time, results of multiple linear regression, weighted by survey effort, indicated no significant trend in ringed seal density as a function of year, survey date, or proportion of open water. In addition, no significant correlation was observed among any of the environmental variables and density estimates. As the proportion of seals hauled out at the time of the survey is unknown, the density estimates of WHB ringed seals presented in this study should be considered indices that might be useful to explore trends in abundance. Although our results do not indicate that a significant decline has occurred, the low density estimate in 2013 may indicate that population changes unrelated to a natural cycle are taking place. We were unable to test for direct effects of changes in food supply or predation, but polar bears, Arctic foxes, and Inuit communities in the Hudson Bay region all would be negatively affected should ringed seal populations undergo significant declines. Further monitoring and directed research are necessary to understand what mechanism may be responsible for the observed changes in ringed seal density.Nous avons fait les levés aériens systématiques de phoques annelés sur de longs transects en bandes dans l’ouest de la baie d’Hudson (OBH), au Canada, de la fin de mai au début de juin des années 1995 à 1997, 1999, 2000, 2007 à 2010 et 2013. Pendant toute la durée de l’étude, la densité de phoques annelés hissés sur la glace a varié de 1,22 phoque/km2 en 1995 à 0,20 phoque/km2 en 2013. Les estimations de densité ont varié considérablement au cours de la période visée par l’étude et, à l’exception de 2013, elles semblaient suivre un profil cyclique. Bien que les estimations de densité semblent également suivre une tendance à la baisse au fil du temps, les résultats de la régression linéaire multiple, pondérée par les levés, n’ont indiqué aucune tendance importante sur le plan de la densité de phoques annelés en fonction de l’année, de la date des levés ou de la proportion d’eaux libres. Par ailleurs, aucune corrélation importante n’a été observée pour n’importe quelle variable environnementale et n’importe quelle estimation de densité. Puisque la proportion de phoques hissés au moment des levés est inconnue, les estimations de densité de phoques annelés dans l’OBH présentées dans cette étude devraient être considérées comme des indices susceptibles d’aider à explorer les tendances en matière d’abondance. Bien que nos résultats ne laissent pas entrevoir la présence d’un déclin important, la faible estimation de densité enregistrée en 2013 pourrait indiquer qu’il se produit des changements de population et que ceux-ci ne sont pas attribuables à un cycle naturel. Nous n’avons pu examiner les effets directs des changements en matière d’approvisionnement alimentaire ou de prédation, mais les ours polaires, les renards arctiques et les communautés inuites de la région de la baie d’Hudson subiraient tous des effets négatifs si les populations de phoques annelés diminuaient considérablement. Il y a lieu de faire de la surveillance et des recherches dirigées pour comprendre à quel mécanisme les changements observés sur le plan de la densité de phoques annelés pourrait être attribuable

Polar bear (Ursus maritimus) Migration from Maternal Dens in Western Hudson Bay

Migration is a common life history strategy among Arctic vertebrates, yet some of its aspects remain poorly described for some species. In February-March, post-parturient polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in western Hudson Bay, Canada, migrate from maternity den sites on land to the sea ice with three- to four-month-old cubs. We investigated this migration using data from 10 adult females fitted with satellite-linked global positioning system collars tracked in 2011 – 16. Directed movement towards the coast began on average on 1 March (range: 31 January to 23 March) and took a mean of 7.8 days to reach the coast. Bears traveled 18 to 100 km from their dens to the coast (mean = 63 km) at a mean rate of 6.7 km/d. Movements were highly directed, with an approximate northeast orientation, but did not follow the shortest path to the coast. Observed migration patterns were broadly similar to those previously documented, although mean departure date from dens was about four days earlier and mean movement rate was only 40% of that from the late 1990s. Given the sensitivity of polar bears to climate change, the phenology of denning may be a meaningful parameter for long-term monitoring.Parmi les vertébrés de l’Arctique, la migration constitue une stratégie de cycle biologique courante et pourtant, pour certaines espèces, certains des aspects de la migration sont toujours mal décrits. En février et en mars, les ours polaires (Ursus maritimus) de post-parturition de l’ouest de la baie d’Hudson, au Canada, migrent depuis leurs aires terrestres de mise bas vers la glace de mer avec leurs oursons de trois à quatre mois. Nous avons étudié cette migration en nous servant des données relatives à dix femelles adultes dotées de colliers satellitaires avec système de localisation GPS, données recueillies de 2011 à 2016. En moyenne, les déplacements dirigés vers la côte commençaient le 1er mars (étendue : du 31 janvier au23 mars) et pour se rendre jusqu’à la côte, il fallait en moyenne 7,8 jours. De leur aire de mise bas jusqu’à la côte, les ours parcouraient de 18 à 100 km (moyenne = 63 km) au taux moyen de 6,7 km/j. Les déplacements étaient fortement dirigés, avec une orientation approximative du nord-est, sans toutefois emprunter le chemin le plus court menant à la côte. Les modèles de migration observés ressemblaient beaucoup aux modèles déjà documentés, quoique la date de départ moyenne des aires de mise bas s’établissait à environ quatre jours plus tôt et que le taux de déplacement moyen ne correspondait qu’à 40 % du taux de la fin des années 1990. Compte tenu de la sensibilité des ours polaires au changement climatique, la phénologie de l’aire de mise bas pourrait constituer un paramètre significatif pour la surveillance à long terme

Do cerebrospinal fluid transfer methods affect measured amyloid β42, total tau, and phosphorylated tau in clinical practice?

Introduction Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) neurodegenerative markers are measured clinically to support a diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease. Several preanalytical factors may alter the CSF concentrations of amyloid β 1–42 (Aβ1–42) in particular with the potential to influence diagnosis. We aimed to determine whether routine handling of samples alters measured biomarker concentration compared with that of prompt delivery to the laboratory. Methods Forty individuals with suspected neurodegenerative diseases underwent diagnostic lumbar punctures using a standardized technique. A sample of each patient's CSF was sent to the laboratory by four different delivery methods: (1) by courier at room temperature; (2) by courier, on ice; (3) using standard hospital portering; and (4) after quarantining for >24 hours. Aβ1–42, total tau (t‐tau), and phosphorylated tau (p‐tau) levels measured using standard enzyme‐linked immunosorbent assay techniques were compared between transfer methods. Results There were no significant differences in Aβ1–42, t‐tau, or p‐tau concentrations measured in samples transported via the different delivery methods despite significant differences in time taken to deliver samples. Discussion When CSF is collected in appropriate tubes, transferred at room temperature, and processed within 24 hours, neurodegenerative markers can be reliably determined

Cerebrospinal fluid in the differential diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease: clinical utility of an extended panel of biomarkers in a specialist cognitive clinic.

BACKGROUND: Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers are increasingly being used to support a diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease (AD). Their clinical utility for differentiating AD from non-AD neurodegenerative dementias, such as dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB) or frontotemporal dementia (FTD), is less well established. We aimed to determine the diagnostic utility of an extended panel of CSF biomarkers to differentiate AD from a range of other neurodegenerative dementias. METHODS: We used immunoassays to measure conventional CSF markers of amyloid and tau pathology (amyloid beta (Aβ)1-42, total tau (T-tau), and phosphorylated tau (P-tau)) as well as amyloid processing (AβX-38, AβX-40, AβX-42, soluble amyloid precursor protein (sAPP)α, and sAPPβ), large fibre axonal degeneration (neurofilament light chain (NFL)), and neuroinflammation (YKL-40) in 245 patients with a variety of dementias and 30 controls. Patients fulfilled consensus criteria for AD (n = 156), DLB (n = 20), behavioural variant frontotemporal dementia (bvFTD; n = 45), progressive non-fluent aphasia (PNFA; n = 17), and semantic dementia (SD; n = 7); approximately 10% were pathology/genetically confirmed (n = 26). Global tests based on generalised least squares regression were used to determine differences between groups. Non-parametric receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and area under the curve (AUC) analyses were used to quantify how well each biomarker discriminated AD from each of the other diagnostic groups (or combinations of groups). CSF cut-points for the major biomarkers found to have diagnostic utility were validated using an independent cohort which included causes of AD (n = 104), DLB (n = 5), bvFTD (n = 12), PNFA (n = 3), SD (n = 9), and controls (n = 10). RESULTS: There were significant global differences in Aβ1-42, T-tau, T-tau/Aβ1-42 ratio, P-tau-181, NFL, AβX-42, AβX-42/X-40 ratio, APPα, and APPβ between groups. At a fixed sensitivity of 85%, AβX-42/X-40 could differentiate AD from controls, bvFTD, and SD with specificities of 93%, 85%, and 100%, respectively; for T-tau/Aβ1-42 these specificities were 83%, 70%, and 86%. AβX-42/X-40 had similar or higher specificity than Aβ1-42. No biomarker or ratio could differentiate AD from DLB or PNFA with specificity > 50%. Similar sensitivities and specificities were found in the independent validation cohort for differentiating AD and other dementias and in a pathology/genetically confirmed sub-cohort. CONCLUSIONS: CSF AβX-42/X-40 and T-tau/Aβ1-42 ratios have utility in distinguishing AD from controls, bvFTD, and SD. None of the biomarkers tested had good specificity at distinguishing AD from DLB or PNFA

Abundance and species diversity hotspots of tracked marine predators across the North American Arctic

Aim: Climate change is altering marine ecosystems worldwide and is most pronounced in the Arctic. Economic development is increasing leading to more disturbances and pressures on Arctic wildlife. Identifying areas that support higher levels of predator abundance and biodiversity is important for the implementation of targeted conservation measures across the Arctic. Location: Primarily Canadian Arctic marine waters but also parts of the United States, Greenland and Russia. Methods: We compiled the largest data set of existing telemetry data for marine predators in the North American Arctic consisting of 1,283 individuals from 21 species. Data were arranged into four species groups: (a) cetaceans and pinnipeds, (b) polar bears Ursus maritimus (c) seabirds, and (d) fishes to address the following objectives: (a) to identify abundance hotspots for each species group in the summer–autumn and winter–spring; (b) to identify species diversity hotspots across all species groups and extent of overlap with exclusive economic zones; and (c) to perform a gap analysis that assesses amount of overlap between species diversity hotspots with existing protected areas. Results: Abundance and species diversity hotpots during summer–autumn and winter–spring were identified in Baffin Bay, Davis Strait, Hudson Bay, Hudson Strait, Amundsen Gulf, and the Beaufort, Chukchi and Bering seas both within and across species groups. Abundance and species diversity hotpots occurred within the continental slope in summer–autumn and offshore in areas of moving pack ice in winter–spring. Gap analysis revealed that the current level of conservation protection that overlaps species diversity hotspots is low covering only 5% (77,498 km 2 ) in summer–autumn and 7% (83,202 km 2 ) in winter–spring. Main conclusions: We identified several areas of potential importance for Arctic marine predators that could provide policymakers with a starting point for conservation measures given the multitude of threats facing the Arctic. These results are relevant to multilevel and multinational governance to protect this vulnerable ecosystem in our rapidly changing world

Defining the True Sensitivity of Culture for the Diagnosis of Melioidosis Using Bayesian Latent Class Models

BACKGROUND: Culture remains the diagnostic gold standard for many bacterial infections, and the method against which other tests are often evaluated. Specificity of culture is 100% if the pathogenic organism is not found in healthy subjects, but the sensitivity of culture is more difficult to determine and may be low. Here, we apply Bayesian latent class models (LCMs) to data from patients with a single Gram-negative bacterial infection and define the true sensitivity of culture together with the impact of misclassification by culture on the reported accuracy of alternative diagnostic tests. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Data from published studies describing the application of five diagnostic tests (culture and four serological tests) to a patient cohort with suspected melioidosis were re-analysed using several Bayesian LCMs. Sensitivities, specificities, and positive and negative predictive values (PPVs and NPVs) were calculated. Of 320 patients with suspected melioidosis, 119 (37%) had culture confirmed melioidosis. Using the final model (Bayesian LCM with conditional dependence between serological tests), the sensitivity of culture was estimated to be 60.2%. Prediction accuracy of the final model was assessed using a classification tool to grade patients according to the likelihood of melioidosis, which indicated that an estimated disease prevalence of 61.6% was credible. Estimates of sensitivities, specificities, PPVs and NPVs of four serological tests were significantly different from previously published values in which culture was used as the gold standard. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Culture has low sensitivity and low NPV for the diagnosis of melioidosis and is an imperfect gold standard against which to evaluate alternative tests. Models should be used to support the evaluation of diagnostic tests with an imperfect gold standard. It is likely that the poor sensitivity/specificity of culture is not specific for melioidosis, but rather a generic problem for many bacterial and fungal infections

Cerebrospinal fluid in the differential diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease: clinical utility of an extended panel of biomarkers in a specialist cognitive clinic

BACKGROUND: Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers are increasingly being used to support a diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease (AD). Their clinical utility for differentiating AD from non-AD neurodegenerative dementias, such as dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB) or frontotemporal dementia (FTD), is less well established. We aimed to determine the diagnostic utility of an extended panel of CSF biomarkers to differentiate AD from a range of other neurodegenerative dementias. METHODS: We used immunoassays to measure conventional CSF markers of amyloid and tau pathology (amyloid beta (Aβ)1-42, total tau (T-tau), and phosphorylated tau (P-tau)) as well as amyloid processing (AβX-38, AβX-40, AβX-42, soluble amyloid precursor protein (sAPP)α, and sAPPβ), large fibre axonal degeneration (neurofilament light chain (NFL)), and neuroinflammation (YKL-40) in 245 patients with a variety of dementias and 30 controls. Patients fulfilled consensus criteria for AD (n = 156), DLB (n = 20), behavioural variant frontotemporal dementia (bvFTD; n = 45), progressive non-fluent aphasia (PNFA; n = 17), and semantic dementia (SD; n = 7); approximately 10% were pathology/genetically confirmed (n = 26). Global tests based on generalised least squares regression were used to determine differences between groups. Non-parametric receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and area under the curve (AUC) analyses were used to quantify how well each biomarker discriminated AD from each of the other diagnostic groups (or combinations of groups). CSF cut-points for the major biomarkers found to have diagnostic utility were validated using an independent cohort which included causes of AD (n = 104), DLB (n = 5), bvFTD (n = 12), PNFA (n = 3), SD (n = 9), and controls (n = 10). RESULTS: There were significant global differences in Aβ1-42, T-tau, T-tau/Aβ1-42 ratio, P-tau-181, NFL, AβX-42, AβX-42/X-40 ratio, APPα, and APPβ between groups. At a fixed sensitivity of 85%, AβX-42/X-40 could differentiate AD from controls, bvFTD, and SD with specificities of 93%, 85%, and 100%, respectively; for T-tau/Aβ1-42 these specificities were 83%, 70%, and 86%. AβX-42/X-40 had similar or higher specificity than Aβ1-42. No biomarker or ratio could differentiate AD from DLB or PNFA with specificity > 50%. Similar sensitivities and specificities were found in the independent validation cohort for differentiating AD and other dementias and in a pathology/genetically confirmed sub-cohort. CONCLUSIONS: CSF AβX-42/X-40 and T-tau/Aβ1-42 ratios have utility in distinguishing AD from controls, bvFTD, and SD. None of the biomarkers tested had good specificity at distinguishing AD from DLB or PNFA

RFC1 expansions are a common cause of idiopathic sensory neuropathy

After extensive evaluation, one-third of patients affected by polyneuropathy remain undiagnosed and are labelled as having chronic idiopathic axonal polyneuropathy, which refers to a sensory or sensory-motor, axonal, slowly progressive neuropathy of unknown origin. Since a sensory neuropathy/neuronopathy is identified in all patients with genetically confirmed RFC1 cerebellar ataxia, neuropathy, vestibular areflexia syndrome, we speculated that RFC1 expansions could underlie a fraction of idiopathic sensory neuropathies also diagnosed as chronic idiopathic axonal polyneuropathy. We retrospectively identified 225 patients diagnosed with chronic idiopathic axonal polyneuropathy (125 sensory neuropathy, 100 sensory-motor neuropathy) from our general neuropathy clinics in Italy and the UK. All patients underwent full neurological evaluation and a blood sample was collected for RFC1 testing. Biallelic RFC1 expansions were identified in 43 patients (34%) with sensory neuropathy and in none with sensory-motor neuropathy. Forty-two per cent of RFC1-positive patients had isolated sensory neuropathy or sensory neuropathy with chronic cough, while vestibular and/or cerebellar involvement, often subclinical, were identified at examination in 58%. Although the sensory ganglia are the primary pathological target of the disease, the sensory impairment was typically worse distally and symmetric, while gait and limb ataxia were absent in two-thirds of the cases. Sensory amplitudes were either globally absent (26%) or reduced in a length-dependent (30%) or non-length dependent pattern (44%). A quarter of RFC1-positive patients had previously received an alternative diagnosis, including Sj\uf6gren's syndrome, sensory chronic inflammatory demyelinating polyneuropathy and paraneoplastic neuropathy, while three cases had been treated with immune therapies

Spectrum, risk factors and outcomes of neurological and psychiatric complications of COVID-19: a UK-wide cross-sectional surveillance study.

SARS-CoV-2 is associated with new-onset neurological and psychiatric conditions. Detailed clinical data, including factors associated with recovery, are lacking, hampering prediction modelling and targeted therapeutic interventions. In a UK-wide cross-sectional surveillance study of adult hospitalized patients during the first COVID-19 wave, with multi-professional input from general and sub-specialty neurologists, psychiatrists, stroke physicians, and intensivists, we captured detailed data on demographics, risk factors, pre-COVID-19 Rockwood frailty score, comorbidities, neurological presentation and outcome. A priori clinical case definitions were used, with cross-specialty independent adjudication for discrepant cases. Multivariable logistic regression was performed using demographic and clinical variables, to determine the factors associated with outcome. A total of 267 cases were included. Cerebrovascular events were most frequently reported (131, 49%), followed by other central disorders (95, 36%) including delirium (28, 11%), central inflammatory (25, 9%), psychiatric (25, 9%), and other encephalopathies (17, 7%), including a severe encephalopathy (n = 13) not meeting delirium criteria; and peripheral nerve disorders (41, 15%). Those with the severe encephalopathy, in comparison to delirium, were younger, had higher rates of admission to intensive care and a longer duration of ventilation. Compared to normative data during the equivalent time period prior to the pandemic, cases of stroke in association with COVID-19 were younger and had a greater number of conventional, modifiable cerebrovascular risk factors. Twenty-seven per cent of strokes occurred in patients 60 years old, the younger stroke patients presented with delayed onset from respiratory symptoms, higher rates of multi-vessel occlusion (31%) and systemic thrombotic events. Clinical outcomes varied between disease groups, with cerebrovascular disease conferring the worst prognosis, but this effect was less marked than the pre-morbid factors of older age and a higher pre-COVID-19 frailty score, and a high admission white cell count, which were independently associated with a poor outcome. In summary, this study describes the spectrum of neurological and psychiatric conditions associated with COVID-19. In addition, we identify a severe COVID-19 encephalopathy atypical for delirium, and a phenotype of COVID-19 associated stroke in younger adults with a tendency for multiple infarcts and systemic thromboses. These clinical data will be useful to inform mechanistic studies and stratification of patients in clinical trials