Data-driven models to predict the elimination of sleeping sickness in former Equateur province of DRC.

Approaching disease elimination, it is crucial to be able to assess progress towards key objectives using quantitative tools. For Gambian human African trypanosomiasis (HAT), the ultimate goal is to stop transmission by 2030, while intermediary targets include elimination as a public health problem - defined as <1 new case per 10,000 inhabitants in 90% of foci, and <2000 reported cases by 2020. Using two independent mathematical models, this study assessed the achievability of these goals in the former Equateur province of the Democratic Republic of Congo, which historically had endemic levels of disease. The two deterministic models used different assumptions on disease progression, risk of infection and non-participation in screening, reflecting biological uncertainty. To validate the models a censor-fit-uncensor procedure was used to fit to health-zone level data from 2000 to 2012; initially the last six years were censored, then three and the final step utilised all data. The different model projections were used to evaluate the expected transmission and reporting for each health zone within each province under six intervention strategies using currently available tools. In 2012 there were 197 reported HAT cases in former Equateur reduced from 6828 in 2000, however this reflects lower active testing for HAT (1.3% of the population compared to 7.2%). Modelling results indicate that there are likely to be <300 reported cases in former Equateur in 2020 if screening continues at the mean level for 2000-2012 (6.2%), and <120 cases if vector control is introduced. Some health zones may fail to achieve <1 new case per 10,000 by 2020 without vector control, although most appear on track for this target using medical interventions alone. The full elimination goal will be harder to reach; between 39 and 54% of health zones analysed may have to improve their current medical-only strategy to stop transmission completely by 2030

Forecasting Human African Trypanosomiasis Prevalences from Population Screening Data Using Continuous Time Models

To eliminate and eradicate gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (HAT), maximizing the effectiveness of active case finding is of key importance. The progression of the epidemic is largely influenced by the planning of these operations. This paper introduces and analyzes five models for predicting HAT prevalence in a given village based on past observed prevalence levels and past screening activities in that village. Based on the quality of prevalence level predictions in 143 villages in Kwamouth (DRC), and based on the theoretical foundation underlying the models, we consider variants of the Logistic Model—a model inspired by the SIS epidemic model—to be most suitable for predicting HAT prevalence levels. Furthe

Oral fexinidazole for stage 1 or early stage 2 African Trypanosoma brucei gambiense trypanosomiasis: a prospective, multicentre, open-label, cohort study

BACKGROUND: Staging and treatment of human African trypanosomiasis caused by Trypanosoma brucei gambiense (g-HAT) required lumbar puncture to assess cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and intravenous drugs that cross the blood-brain barrier for late-stage infection. These procedures are inconvenient in rural health systems of disease-endemic countries. A pivotal study established fexinidazole as the first oral monotherapy to be effective against non-severe stage 2 g-HAT. We aimed to assess the safety and efficacy of fexinidazole in early g-HAT. METHODS: In this prospective, multicentre, open-label, single-arm cohort study, patients with stage 1 or early stage 2 g-HAT were recruited from eight treatment centres in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Primary inclusion criteria included being older than 15 years, being able to ingest at least one complete meal per day (or at least one sachet of Plumpy'Nut®), a Karnofsky score higher than 50, evidence of trypanosomes in the blood or lymph but no evidence of trypanosomes in the CSF, willingness to be admitted to hospital to receive treatment, having a permanent address, and being able to comply with the follow-up visit schedule. Exclusion criteria included severe malnutrition, inability to take medication orally, pregnant or breastfeeding women, any clinically important medical condition that could jeopardise patient safety or participation in the study, severely deteriorated general status, any contraindication to imidazole drugs, HAT treatment in the past 2 years, previous enrolment in the study or previous intake of fexinidazole, abnormalities on electrocardiogram that did not return to normal in pretreatment repeated assessments or were considered clinically important, QT interval corrected using Fridericia's formula of at least 450 ms, and patients not tested for malaria or not having received appropriate treatment for malaria or for soil-transmitted helminthiasis. Patients were classified into stage 1 or early stage 2 g-HAT groups following evidence of trypanosomes in the blood, lymph, and absence in CSF, and using white-blood-cell count in CSF. Patients received 1800 mg fexinidazole once per day on days 1-4 then 1200 mg fexinidazole on days 5-10. Patients were observed for approximately 19 months in total. Study participants were followed up on day 5 and day 8 during treatment, at end of treatment on day 11, at end of hospitalisation on days 11-18, at week 9 for a subset of patients, and after 6 months, 12 months, and 18 months. The primary endpoint was treatment success at 12 months. Safety was assessed through routine monitoring. Analyses were done in the intention-to-treat population. The acceptable success rate was defined as treatment efficacy in more than 80% of patients. This study is completed and registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02169557). FINDINGS: Patients were enrolled between April 30, 2014, and April 25, 2017. 238 patients were recruited: 195 (82%) patients with stage 1 g-HAT and 43 (18%) with early stage 2 g-HAT. 189 (97%) of 195 patients with stage 1 g-HAT and 41 (95%) of 43 patients with early stage 2 g-HAT were finally included and completed the 10 day treatment period. Three patients with stage 1 g-HAT died after the 10 day treatment period and before the 12 month primary follow-up visit, considered as treatment failure and were withdrawn from the study. Treatment was effective at 12 months for 227 (99%) of 230 patients (95% CI 96·2-99·7): 186 (98%) of 189 patients (95·4-99·7) with stage 1 and 41 (100%) of 41 patients (91·4-100·0) with early stage 2, indicating that the primary study endpoint was met. No new safety issues were observed. The most frequent adverse events were headache and vomiting. In total, 214 (93%) of 230 patients had treatment-emergent adverse events, mainly common-terminology criteria for adverse events grades 1 to 3. None led to treatment discontinuation. INTERPRETATION: Fexinidazole is a valuable first-line treatment option in the early stages of g-HAT. FUNDING: Through the Drugs for Neglected Diseases initiative: the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the Republic and Canton of Geneva (Switzerland), the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs (also known as DGIS; Netherlands), the Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation (also known as Norad; Norway), the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (also known as BMBF) through KfW (Germany), the Brian Mercer Charitable Trust (UK), and other private foundations and individuals from the HAT campaign

Safety and efficacy of oral fexinidazole in children with gambiense human African trypanosomiasis: a multicentre, single-arm, open-label, phase 2-3 trial

BACKGROUND: Fexinidazole has been reported as an effective oral monotherapy against non-severe gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in a recent trial in adults. We aimed to assess the safety and efficacy of fexinidazole in children across all disease stages of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis. METHODS: We did a multicentre, single-arm, open-label, phase 2-3 trial at eight district hospitals in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. We recruited children with a Karnofsky score of more than 50, those aged 6 years to younger than 15 years, weighing 20 kg or more, and with confirmed gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (any stage). Children weighing 20 kg or more and less than 35 kg received oral fexinidazole of 1200 mg (two x 600 mg tablets) once per day for 4 days (days 1-4) followed by 600 mg (one x 600 mg tablet) once per day for 6 days (days 5-10). Children weighing 35 kg or more received oral fexinidazole of 1800 mg (three x 600 mg tablets) once per day for 4 days (days 1-4), followed by 1200 mg (two x 600 mg tablets) once per day for 6 days (days 5-10). The primary endpoint was fexinidazole treatment success rate 12 months after end of treatment. A rate greater than 80% was deemed acceptable and a target value of 92% was aimed for. Safety was assessed through routine monitoring. This study is completed and registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02184689. FINDINGS: Between May 3, 2014, and Nov 22, 2016, we screened a total of 130 paediatric patients, of whom 125 (96%) received at least one dose of fexinidazole. All 125 patients (69 [55%] patients with stage 1, 19 [15%] with early stage 2, and 37 [30%] with late stage 2 gambiense human African trypanosomiasis) completed the 10-day treatment. Treatment success rate at 12 months was 97.6% (95% CI 93.1-99.5; 122 of 125 patients). The primary endpoint was met and the targeted value of 92% was exceeded. Treatment success at 12 months was elevated across all disease stages: 98.6% (95% CI 92.2-99.9; 68 of 69 patients) in stage 1, 94.7% (74.0-99.9; 18 of 19 patients) in early stage 2, and 97.3% (85.8-99.9; 36 of 37 patients) in late stage 2 gambiense human African trypanosomiasis. No new safety issues were observed beyond those found in adult trials. Overall, 116 (93%) of 125 patients reported 586 treatment-emergent adverse events, mainly mild or moderate. The most frequently reported treatment-emergent adverse events of interest during hospital admission were vomiting (86 [69%] of 125) and headache (41 [33%]). Seven (6%) of 125 patients had severe malaria, which was often accompanied by anaemia that was unrelated to fexinidazole. One patient died following dyspnoea and injury due to traumatic aggression 172 days after end of treatment, which was considered unrelated to fexinidazole or gambiense human African trypanosomiasis. INTERPRETATION: Oral fexinidazole is a safe and effective first-line treatment option across all gambiense human African trypanosomiasis disease stages in paediatric patients. FUNDING: Through the Drugs for Neglected Diseases initiative: the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (USA), the Republic and Canton of Geneva (Switzerland), the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs (Netherlands), the Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation (Norway), the Federal Ministry of Education and Research through KfW (Germany), the Brian Mercer Charitable Trust (UK), and other private foundations and individuals from the human African trypanosomiasis campaign. TRANSLATION: For the French translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section

Should I Get Screened for Sleeping Sickness? A Qualitative Study in Kasai Province, Democratic Republic of Congo

Active screening strategies are common disease control interventions in the context of poor and remote rural communities with no direct access to healthcare facilities. For such activities to be as effective as possible, it is necessary that they are well adapted to local socio-economic and cultural settings. Our aim was to gain insight into the barriers communities in the Kasai-Oriental province of the Democratic Republic of Congo experience in relation to their participation in active screening activities for African sleeping sickness. Participation rates seem to be especially low in this province compared to other endemic regions in the country. We found several important factors to be in play, a number of which could be addressed by adapting the operational procedures of the mobile teams that perform the active screening activities (e.g., improved confidentiality during the screening procedure). However, more profound considerations were found in the form of regional beliefs related to the treatment of the disease. Although not based on rational grounds, these prohibitions seem to pose a significant barrier in a person's decision to seek diagnosis and treatment. A better understanding of these prohibitions and their origin could lead to improved participation rates for sleeping sickness screening in Kasai-Oriental

Integrating innovations:a qualitative analysis of referral non-completion among rapid diagnostic test-positive patients in Uganda's human African trypanosomiasis elimination programme

BACKGROUND: The recent development of rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) for human African trypanosomiasis (HAT) enables elimination programmes to decentralise serological screening services to frontline health facilities. However, patients must still undertake multiple onwards referral steps to either be confirmed or discounted as cases. Accurate surveillance thus relies not only on the performance of diagnostic technologies but also on referral support structures and patient decisions. This study explored why some RDT-positive suspects failed to complete the diagnostic referral process in West Nile, Uganda. METHODS: Between August 2013 and June 2015, 85% (295/346) people who screened RDT-positive were examined by microscopy at least once; 10 cases were detected. We interviewed 20 RDT-positive suspects who had not completed referral (16 who had not presented for their first microscopy examination, and 4 who had not returned for a second to dismiss them as cases after receiving discordant [RDT-positive, but microscopy-negative results]). Interviews were analysed thematically to examine experiences of each step of the referral process. RESULTS: Poor provider communication about HAT RDT results helped explain non-completion of referrals in our sample. Most patients were unaware they were tested for HAT until receiving results, and some did not know they had screened positive. While HAT testing and treatment is free, anticipated costs for transportation and ancillary health services fees deterred many. Most expected a positive RDT result would lead to HAT treatment. RDT results that failed to provide a definitive diagnosis without further testing led some to question the expertise of health workers. For the four individuals who missed their second examination, complying with repeat referral requests was less attractive when no alternative diagnostic advice or treatment was given. CONCLUSIONS: An RDT-based surveillance strategy that relies on referral through all levels of the health system is inevitably subject to its limitations. In Uganda, a key structural weakness was poor provider communication about the possibility of discordant HAT test results, which is the most common outcome for serological RDT suspects in a HAT elimination programme. Patient misunderstanding of referral rationale risks harming trust in the whole system and should be addressed in elimination programmes

No evidence for association with APOL1 kidney disease risk alleles and Human African Trypanosomiasis in two Ugandan populations:

Human African trypanosomiasis (HAT) manifests as an acute form caused by Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense (Tbr) and a chronic form caused by Trypanosoma brucei gambiense (Tbg). Previous studies have suggested a host genetic role in infection outcomes, particularly for APOL1. We have undertaken a candidate gene association studies (CGAS) in a Ugandan Tbr and a Tbg HAT endemic area, to determine whether polymorphisms in IL10, IL8, IL4, HLAG, TNFA, TNX4LB, IL6, IFNG, MIF, APOL1, HLAA, IL1B, IL4R, IL12B, IL12R, HP, HPR, and CFH have a role in HAT

The impact of vector migration on the effectiveness of strategies to control gambiense human African trypanosomiasis

BACKGROUND: Several modeling studies have been undertaken to assess the feasibility of the WHO goal of eliminating gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (g-HAT) by 2030. However, these studies have generally overlooked the effect of vector migration on disease transmission and control. Here, we evaluated the impact of vector migration on the feasibility of interrupting transmission in different g-HAT foci. METHODS: We developed a g-HAT transmission model of a single tsetse population cluster that accounts for migration of tsetse fly into this population. We used a model calibration approach to constrain g-HAT incidence to ranges expected for high, moderate and low transmission settings, respectively. We used the model to evaluate the effectiveness of current intervention measures, including medical intervention through enhanced screening and treatment, and vector control, for interrupting g-HAT transmission in disease foci under each transmission setting. RESULTS: We showed that, in low transmission settings, under enhanced medical intervention alone, at least 70% treatment coverage is needed to interrupt g-HAT transmission within 10 years. In moderate transmission settings, a combination of medical intervention and a vector control measure with a daily tsetse mortality greater than 0.03 is required to achieve interruption of disease transmission within 10 years. In high transmission settings, interruption of disease transmission within 10 years requires a combination of at least 70% medical intervention coverage and at least 0.05 tsetse daily mortality rate from vector control. However, the probability of achieving elimination in high transmission settings decreases with an increased tsetse migration rate. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that the WHO 2030 goal of G-HAT elimination is, at least in theory, achievable. But the presence of tsetse migration may reduce the probability of interrupting g-HAT transmission in moderate and high transmission foci. Therefore, optimal vector control programs should incorporate monitoring and controlling of vector density in buffer areas around foci of g-HAT control efforts