El ahorro privado en Venezuela: Tendencias y determinantes

La característica notable del comportamiento de la tasa de ahorro privado en Venezuela es su tendencia secular a reducirse desde los elevados niveles experimentados durante los años setenta a los muy reducidos de los noventa. Adicionalmente a esta tendencia al deterioro, habría que añadir su alta volatilidad. Las razones que explican este resultado no sólo están referidas a los sucesivos shocks, externos e internos, que han afectado a Venezuela, sino también a la forma peculiar como se ha gestionado la política económica para enfrentar estos shocks. Así, a la alta variabilidad del ingreso generada por los impactos sorpresivos de los acontecimientos externos, se deben añadir, especialmente después del inicio de la crisis de la deuda externa en 1983, los shocks de política económica, y más específicamente el uso del tipo de cambio, como mecanismo fundamental para ajustar las finanzas públicas.

Discipline, Stability, and Sustainability in Venezuelan Public Finance

Este trabajo propone un sistema de reglas fiscales para Venezuela que permita alcanzar estabilización y sostenibilidad de las finanzas públicas, así como fundamentar el diseño de reformas económicas orientadas al restablecimiento de los equilibrios macroeconómicos básicos, condición necesaria para la recuperación del crecimiento sostenido. Se parte de considerar el estado del arte en la materia de reglas fiscales, haciendo un balance de sus ventajas y desventajas, con especial énfasis en las economías que dependen de la explotación y exportaciones de recursos naturales no renovables. Se formula un modelo de reglas fiscales, que posteriormente se simula para el caso de Venezuela. Los resultados obtenidos permiten inferir su factibilidad y conveniencia, partiendo del reconocimiento de que la implementación de un sistema de reglas fiscales como el propuesto requiere de un período de transición durante el cual se corrijan los fuertes desequilibrios macroeconómicos presentes y la crisis humanitaria que en la actualidad afecta al país.The objective of the proposal of a system of fiscal rules for Venezuela is twofold: to achieve the stabilization and sustainability of public finances, and to provide foundations for policies aimed at restoring the country’s basic macroeconomic balances and a sustained growth path. Before presenting such system, we offer an overview of the current state of the subject on fiscal rules and – being Venezuela an oil country – focus on their main aspects and restrictions in natural resource economies. To evaluate the proposed system of fiscal rules, we calibrate and simulate a tailored model for the Venezuelan case and perform the estimations in the context of likely short and medium-term macroeconomic scenarios. The results of the exercise allow us to infer its feasibility and convenience if the fiscal rules proposed are implemented after a process of fiscal consolidation and restoration of basic macroeconomic equilibria

UN MARCO REFERENCIAL PARA EL DESARROLLO DE LAS MICROFINANZAS EN VENEZUELA.

El escaso desarrollo relativo de la actividad del microcrédito en Venezuela ha despertado gran interés oficial por la participación y promoción del sector público en las microfinanzas. Este trabajo sintetiza los esfuerzos recientes de comprensión de las microfinanzas a partir de la rica acumulación de experiencias en economías en desarrollo. El trabajo discute el objeto y alcance de las microfinanzas y su relación con la pobreza y analiza las más importantes lecciones aprendidas de la experiencia reciente. A la luz de estas lecciones se evalúa el marco legal sancionado en Venezuela para regular la actividad de microfinanzas señalando algunas insuficiencias y ambigüedades

El nivel adecuado de reservas internacionales: notas para el caso venezolano

Based on a standard set of factors pointed out by the literature we analyze the recent and rapid accumulation of international reserves in Venezuela. Among other things, we characterize the Venezuelan case and conduct a statistical analysis using a quarterly time series model between 1996 and 2004. The specification follows closely Aizenman and Marion (2002). Both a static and dynamic econometric version of the model allows us to report some of the factors that influence the decision to hold foreign exchange reserves. When we calculate the adequate level of reserves, using the econometric specifications, we found that excess reserves are not currently high and that the results do not diverge much from the traditional Heller¿s methodology. Finally, we undertake an evaluation of the alternatives pointed out for excess reserves manage-ment in Venezuela

El nivel adecuado de reservas internacionales: notas para el caso venezolano

Based on a standard set of factors pointed out by the literature we analyze the recent and rapid accumulation of international reserves in Venezuela. Among other things, we characterize the Venezuelan case and conduct a statistical analysis using a quarterly time series model between 1996 and 2004. The specification follows closely Aizenman and Marion (2002). Both a static and dynamic econometric version of the model allows us to report some of the factors that influence the decision to hold foreign exchange reserves. When we calculate the adequate level of reserves, using the econometric specifications, we found that excess reserves are not currently high and that the results do not diverge much from the traditional Heller's methodology. Finally, we undertake an evaluation of the alternatives pointed out for excess reserves management in Venezuela.International Reserve Holdings, Excess Reserves, Venezuela, Econometric Model

2007, ‘The Efficiency-Stability TradeOff: The Case of High Interest Rate Spreads in Venezuela’. The Developing Economies XLV(1

This paper examines the determinants of the high intermediation spread observed in the Venezuelan banking sector during the 1990s (by far the largest in the Latin American region throughout the 1990s). We trace the evolution of the spread and its connection with other bank-specific variables. A reduced-form equation is estimated on the basis of a simple behavioral model for the banking firm previously developed by Shaffer and extended by Barajas, Steiner, and Salazar. Using different types of estimators for aggregate and pooled data of the financial system, we found that high spreads can be attributed to market power, high operating costs, and expected portfolio risk. The empirical results also suggest a trade-off between assuring bank solvency and lowering profitability

Structure, level and inequality of household consumption expenditure in Venezuela, 2019-2023

The recent evolution of household expenditures in Venezuela shows changes in consumption patterns, not only over time but also among the different segments of households classified according to their poverty status. This article summarizes the behavior of household consumption spending in Venezuela, with special attention to expenditures for food. The analysis is based on data collected through the Living Conditions Surveys (ENCOVI) for the 2019-2023 period. In addition, the level of poverty and inequality among households is estimated, based on the behavior of household expenditures. These are areas in which there is scarce literature in Venezuela. The results show that a significant increase in inequality in household spending levels has accompanied the relative reduction in the very high levels of poverty identified in 2019, especially in spending on food goods. Another relevant finding is that the greater inequality is due more to the asymmetries within the different types of poor households, especially with the extremely poor than to the differences between poor and non-poor households. That is to say, intragroup inequalities have grown significantly more than intergroup inequalities. Although this is a paper that emphasizes description rather than an explanation of the determination of expenditure, poverty levels, and inequality among households, it highlights structural changes in income distribution and consumption patterns in Venezuelan households. These issues are sufficiently relevant to justify further analytical deepening of the causes and implications of these structural changes on economic growth and socio-political stability in a country that requires a profound transformation of its fundamentals

El Ahorro Privado en Venezuela: Tendencias y Determinantes

La característica notable del comportamiento de la tasa de ahorro privado en Venezuela es su tendencia secular a reducirse desde los elevados niveles experimentados durante los años setenta a los muy reducidos de los noventa. Adicionalmente a esta tendencia al deterioro, habría que añadir su alta volatilidad. Las razones que explican este resultado no sólo están referidas a los sucesivos shocks, externos e internos, que han afectado a Venezuela, sino también a la forma peculiar como se ha gestionado la política económica para enfrentar estos shocks. Así, a la alta variabilidad del ingreso generada por los impactos sorpresivos de los acontecimientos externos, se deben añadir, especialmente después del inicio de la crisis de la deuda externa en 1983, los shocks de política económica, y más específicamente el uso del tipo de cambio, como mecanismo fundamental para ajustar las finanzas públicas