Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. METHODS: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. FINDINGS: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. INTERPRETATION: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Bajo índice de sospecha para deficiencia de anticuerpos en niños sometidos a procedimientos quirúrgicos de Otorrinolaringología

INTRODUCCIÓN: las inmunodeficiencias primarias están subdiagnosticadas en todo el mundo, aun en centros de tercer nivel de atención. Los defectos de anticuerpos constituyen el grupo más prevalente y suelen manifestarse clínicamente después de los 6 meses de edad como infecciones respiratorias recurrentes causadas por bacterias encapsuladas. Algunas cirugías de oído-nariz y garganta se indican en pacientes con infecciones respiratorias recurrentes o complicadas que no han respondido adecuadamente al tratamiento médico. Estos niños sometidos a procedimientos quirúrgicos luego de una historia de infecciones respiratorias recurrentes pueden constituir un grupo de alto riesgo para inmunodeficiencias primarias.   OBJETIVO: indagar qué tan frecuentes son los defectos de anticuerpos en niños sometidos a cualquiera de tres cirugías de otorrinolaringología.   MATERIALES Y MÉTODOS: revisamos los expedientes electrónicos de niños que hubieran sido sometidos a adenoamigdalectomía (ATT), drenaje endoscópico de senos paranasales (ESD) y colocación de tubos timpánicos de ventilación (TVT) en nuestro instituto durante 2011-2012, en busca de niveles séricos de inmunoglobulinas (IgE, IgG, IgA, IgM).   RESULTADOS: encontramos 112 procedimientos quirúrgicos en 87 pacientes, de los cuales la indicación para cirugía fue infecciosa en 37 (21 varones, 1 muerto, edad media 7.3 años), más frecuentemente rinosinusitis (19/37) y amigdalitis (9/37) crónicas. Los procedimientos incluyeron: 24 adenoamigdalectomías, 13 drenajes endoscópicos de senos paranasales y 6 colocaciones de tubos timpánicos de ventilación, para un total de 43; ocho pacientes (21.6%) fueron sometidos a más de una cirugía. La IgE sérica se encontró en el expediente de 27 pacientes (72.9%), y “al menos IgG” en 18 (48.6%). Sólo 70% de las pruebas fueron ordenadas antes de la cirugía. Los resultados anormales incluyeron: IgE elevada en 10/27, IgG elevada en 8/18, IgG baja 1/18, IgM elevada 3/17 e IgA elevada en 5/17. Dos niños con enfermedad granulomatosa crónica fueron identificados a través de esta búsqueda electrónica.   CONCLUSIONES: describimos 37 pacientes sometidos a cirugía de otorrinolaringología por una historia de infecciones respiratorias recurrentes, complicadas o refractarias, de los cuales al menos nueve eran alérgicos y al menos dos tenían una inmunodeficiencia primaria. Sólo 18 de esos 37 tenían determinación de IgG como parte de su evaluación preoperatoria; un índice alarmantemente bajo de sospecha para defectos de anticuerpos. Estudios previos en adultos con rinosinusitis crónica han encontrado defectos de anticuerpos. Planeamos completar la evaluación inmunológica de los 37 pacientes, incluyendo para deficiencia específica de anticuerpos (SAD). Banderas rojas como IgE >2,000 IU/mL, neumonía complicada o cultivo de Aspergillus pueden ser útiles para detectar pacientes con inmunodeficiencia primaria no diagnosticada

Heterozygous STAT1 gain-of-function mutations underlie an unexpectedly broad clinical phenotype

Since their discovery in patients with autosomal dominant (AD) chronic mucocutaneous candidiasis (CMC) in 2011, heterozygous STAT1 gain-of-function (GOF) mutations have increasingly been identified worldwide. The clinical spectrum associated with them needed to be delineated. We enrolled 274 patients from 167 kindreds originating from 40 countries from 5 continents. Demographic data, clinical features, immunological parameters, treatment, and outcome were recorded. The median age of the 274 patients was 22 years (range, 1-71 years); 98% of them had CMC, with a median age at onset of 1 year (range, 0-24 years). Patients often displayed bacterial (74%) infections, mostly because of Staphylococcus aureus (36%), including the respiratory tract and the skin in 47% and 28% of patients, respectively, and viral (38%) infections, mostly because of Herpesviridae (83%) and affecting the skin in 32% of patients. Invasive fungal infections (10%), mostly caused by Candida spp. (29%), and mycobacterial disease (6%) caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis, environmental mycobacteria, or Bacille Calmette-Guérin vaccines were less common. Many patients had autoimmune manifestations (37%), including hypothyroidism (22%), type 1 diabetes (4%), blood cytopenia (4%), and systemic lupus erythematosus (2%). Invasive infections (25%), cerebral aneurysms (6%), and cancers (6%) were the strongest predictors of poor outcome. CMC persisted in 39% of the 202 patients receiving prolonged antifungal treatment. Circulating interleukin-17A-producing T-cell count was low for most (82%) but not all of the patients tested. STAT1 GOF mutations underlie AD CMC, as well as an unexpectedly wide range of other clinical features, including not only a variety of infectious and autoimmune diseases, but also cerebral aneurysms and carcinomas that confer a poor prognosis