Network approaches for formalizing conceptual models in ecosystem-based management

Funding Intermodel comparisons were supported through funding from the NOAA Integrated Ecosystem Assessment Program. P.S. McDonald’s involvement was funded in part by a grant from Washington Sea Grant, University of Washington, pursuant to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Award number NA14OAR4170078. Funding for RPW was supported by the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS)/Sea Grant Population and Ecosystem Dynamics Graduate Fellowship via federal award NA14OAR4170077. Acknowledgements We would like to acknowledge and thank the participants of the NOAA Integrated Ecosystem Assessment Program conceptual network modelling workshop at Baton Rouge, LA in July 2018. The discussions at this meeting formed some of the basis for the ideas presented in this manuscript. We also thank J. Moss and two anonymous reviewers for valuable comments on earlier manuscript drafts. The findings and conclusions in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA. Reference to trade names does not imply endorsement by the National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA. This is NOAA Integrated Ecosystem Assessment Program contribution number 2021_3.Peer reviewedPostprin

Structure and Evolution of the Lunar Procellarum Region as Revealed by GRAIL Gravity Data

The Procellarum region is a broad area on the nearside of the Moon that is characterized by low elevations, thin crust, and high surface concentrations of the heat-producing elements uranium, thorium, and potassium. The Procellarum region has been interpreted as an ancient impact basin approximately 3200 km in diameter, though supporting evidence at the surface would have been largely obscured as a result of the great antiquity and poor preservation of any diagnostic features. Here we use data from the Gravity Recovery and Interior Laboratory (GRAIL) mission to examine the subsurface structure of Procellarum. The Bouguer gravity anomalies and gravity gradients reveal a pattern of narrow linear anomalies that border the Procellarum region and are interpreted to be the frozen remnants of lava-filled rifts and the underlying feeder dikes that served as the magma plumbing system for much of the nearside mare volcanism. The discontinuous surface structures that were earlier interpreted as remnants of an impact basin rim are shown in GRAIL data to be a part of this continuous set of quasi-rectangular border structures with angular intersections, contrary to the expected circular or elliptical shape of an impact basin. The spatial pattern of magmatic-tectonic structures bounding Procellarum is consistent with their formation in response to thermal stresses produced by the differential cooling of the province relative to its surroundings, coupled with magmatic activity driven by the elevated heat flux in the region

A Vulnerability Assessment of Fish and Invertebrates to Climate Change on the Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf

Climate change and decadal variability are impacting marine fish and invertebrate species worldwide and these impacts will continue for the foreseeable future. Quantitative approaches have been developed to examine climate impacts on productivity, abundance, and distribution of various marine fish and invertebrate species. However, it is difficult to apply these approaches to large numbers of species owing to the lack of mechanistic understanding sufficient for quantitative analyses, as well as the lack of scientific infrastructure to support these more detailed studies. Vulnerability assessments provide a framework for evaluating climate impacts over a broad range of species with existing information. These methods combine the exposure of a species to a stressor (climate change and decadal variability) and the sensitivity of species to the stressor. These two components are then combined to estimate an overall vulnerability. Quantitative data are used when available, but qualitative information and expert opinion are used when quantitative data is lacking. Here we conduct a climate vulnerability assessment on 82 fish and invertebrate species in the Northeast U.S. Shelf including exploited, forage, and protected species. We define climate vulnerability as the extent to which abundance or productivity of a species in the region could be impacted by climate change and decadal variability. We find that the overall climate vulnerability is high to very high for approximately half the species assessed; diadromous and benthic invertebrate species exhibit the greatest vulnerability. In addition, the majority of species included in the assessment have a high potential for a change in distribution in response to projected changes in climate. Negative effects of climate change are expected for approximately half of the species assessed, but some species are expected to be positively affected (e.g., increase in productivity or move into the region). These results will inform research and management activities related to understanding and adapting marine fisheries management and conservation to climate change and decadal variability

Science Opportunities offered by Mercury's Ice-Bearing Polar Deposits

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Multiorgan MRI findings after hospitalisation with COVID-19 in the UK (C-MORE): a prospective, multicentre, observational cohort study

Introduction: The multiorgan impact of moderate to severe coronavirus infections in the post-acute phase is still poorly understood. We aimed to evaluate the excess burden of multiorgan abnormalities after hospitalisation with COVID-19, evaluate their determinants, and explore associations with patient-related outcome measures. Methods: In a prospective, UK-wide, multicentre MRI follow-up study (C-MORE), adults (aged ≥18 years) discharged from hospital following COVID-19 who were included in Tier 2 of the Post-hospitalisation COVID-19 study (PHOSP-COVID) and contemporary controls with no evidence of previous COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid antibody negative) underwent multiorgan MRI (lungs, heart, brain, liver, and kidneys) with quantitative and qualitative assessment of images and clinical adjudication when relevant. Individuals with end-stage renal failure or contraindications to MRI were excluded. Participants also underwent detailed recording of symptoms, and physiological and biochemical tests. The primary outcome was the excess burden of multiorgan abnormalities (two or more organs) relative to controls, with further adjustments for potential confounders. The C-MORE study is ongoing and is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04510025. Findings: Of 2710 participants in Tier 2 of PHOSP-COVID, 531 were recruited across 13 UK-wide C-MORE sites. After exclusions, 259 C-MORE patients (mean age 57 years [SD 12]; 158 [61%] male and 101 [39%] female) who were discharged from hospital with PCR-confirmed or clinically diagnosed COVID-19 between March 1, 2020, and Nov 1, 2021, and 52 non-COVID-19 controls from the community (mean age 49 years [SD 14]; 30 [58%] male and 22 [42%] female) were included in the analysis. Patients were assessed at a median of 5·0 months (IQR 4·2–6·3) after hospital discharge. Compared with non-COVID-19 controls, patients were older, living with more obesity, and had more comorbidities. Multiorgan abnormalities on MRI were more frequent in patients than in controls (157 [61%] of 259 vs 14 [27%] of 52; p<0·0001) and independently associated with COVID-19 status (odds ratio [OR] 2·9 [95% CI 1·5–5·8]; padjusted=0·0023) after adjusting for relevant confounders. Compared with controls, patients were more likely to have MRI evidence of lung abnormalities (p=0·0001; parenchymal abnormalities), brain abnormalities (p<0·0001; more white matter hyperintensities and regional brain volume reduction), and kidney abnormalities (p=0·014; lower medullary T1 and loss of corticomedullary differentiation), whereas cardiac and liver MRI abnormalities were similar between patients and controls. Patients with multiorgan abnormalities were older (difference in mean age 7 years [95% CI 4–10]; mean age of 59·8 years [SD 11·7] with multiorgan abnormalities vs mean age of 52·8 years [11·9] without multiorgan abnormalities; p<0·0001), more likely to have three or more comorbidities (OR 2·47 [1·32–4·82]; padjusted=0·0059), and more likely to have a more severe acute infection (acute CRP >5mg/L, OR 3·55 [1·23–11·88]; padjusted=0·025) than those without multiorgan abnormalities. Presence of lung MRI abnormalities was associated with a two-fold higher risk of chest tightness, and multiorgan MRI abnormalities were associated with severe and very severe persistent physical and mental health impairment (PHOSP-COVID symptom clusters) after hospitalisation. Interpretation: After hospitalisation for COVID-19, people are at risk of multiorgan abnormalities in the medium term. Our findings emphasise the need for proactive multidisciplinary care pathways, with the potential for imaging to guide surveillance frequency and therapeutic stratification

Characteristics of fish yolk proteins and a method for inducing vitellogenin

Teleosts are one of the most diverse groups of vertebrates. They utilize a wide array of reproductive strategies and tactics to overcome the challenges of the many ecological niches they inhabit. The most common reproductive method for teleosts is oviparity. Oviparous animals lay eggs with little or no embryonic development from the mother. The embryos are supplied with nutrition via yolk. Vitellogenesis is the process of the ovary sequestering yolk. It is regulated by exogenous environmental cues that act on the hypothalamus-pituitary-gonad axis. Through a series of hormonal controls, the liver produces the yolk precursor, vitellogenin. Vitellogenin is secreted by the liver and absorbed by the growing oocyte by receptor mediated endocytosis. There it is cleaved into the two main yolk proteins which are subsequently used by the growing embryo. The biggest source of nutrition is the yolk protein lipovitellin which also plays a key role in marine teleosts’ ability to osmoregulate their eggs. Lipovitellin is a large glyco-phospho-lipo-protein ca. 200 kDa. Large proteins usually denature easily. However, prior evidence shows that fish lipovitellins are thermally stable. Using differential scanning calorimetry, I quantify lipovitellin’s thermostability amongst four right-eye flounders (Pleuronectidae: winter flounder, American plaice, witch flounder, and yellowtail flounder). Differential scanning calorimetry allows direct interpretation of all thermodynamic properties; however, Lipovitellin was too large and precipitated before other thermodynamic properties could be determined. Pleuronectid lipovitellins all showed high melting points indicative of high thermostability. This shows that despite differing life histories, lipovitellin is conserved. Presence of the pre-cursor, vitellogenin in male or juvenile fish is used as a biomarker for xenoestrogens, a type of endocrine disrupting chemicals that blocks or mimics natural estrogens. They are known to disrupt aquatic life by interfering with natural development and reproduction. A major biological side effect of xenoestrogens is the accumulation of vitellogenin. This effect has made vitellogenin a useful biomarker for monitoring levels of contamination. Unfortunately, vitellogenin can vary greatly in its immunological and structural characteristics, which means that species-specific assays are necessary. This study took the first step in developing an immunoassay for bluefish (Pomatomus saltatrix). Vitellogenin was induced by injecting a group of bluefish with an estrogen, estradiol, and the resulting vitellogenin was isolated from the serum of males. The protein was characterized as vitellogenin by determining its large Stokes radius in gel permeation chromatography combined with its characteristic peptide molecular weight in sodium dodecyl sulfate polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis

Incorporating temperature-dependent fish bioenergetics into a Narragansett Bay food web model

Food web models capture shifting species interactions, making them useful tools for exploring community responses to disturbances. The inclusion of environmental drivers, such as temperature, can improve model predictions, as energy demands of an organism can be temperature specific. While mass-balance models such as Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) and the R implementation, Rpath, have included some thermal responses in past work, models have yet to include temperature-dependent energetic demands and metabolic costs. Our work demonstrates the inclusion of temperature-dependent bioenergetics into an Rpath food web model using the case study of a warming estuary: Narragansett Bay (Rhode Island, U.S.A). Thermal response parameters from literature were used to construct Kitchell curves describing temperature-dependent consumption and modified Arrhenius curves describing temperature-dependent respiration. Surface water temperature time series from 1994 to 2054 for high and low warming scenarios were created using observed temperatures and projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) multi-model ensemble. The integration of temperature-dependent fish bioenergetics resulted in lower projected biomasses as energetic demands increased. The degree to which biomass was impacted varied by functional group, though piscivorous fishes were particularly affected as both that group and their prey groups had forced bioenergetic changes. The differences in the model-predicted biomasses highlight the importance of accounting for thermal effects on marine species in ecosystem models, which will become increasingly important as ocean temperatures continue to rise in Narragansett Bay and elsewhere

Closing the Feedback Loop: On Stakeholder Participation in Management Strategy Evaluation

Management strategy evaluation (MSE) is a simulation-based approach to examine the efficacy of management options in achieving fishery-, ecosystem-, and socioeconomic-related objectives while integrating over system uncertainties. As a form of structured decision analysis, MSE is amenable to stakeholder involvement, which can reduce implementation barriers associated with non-transparent decision-making procedures. Based on analysis of three MSE processes (Atlantic tunas, Atlantic herring, and eastern oysters), we provide suggestions for improving stakeholder engagement in MSE. By assembling a workgroup and modeling team with diverse backgrounds, including professional facilitators, communication liaisons, and social scientists, dialogue can be improved and an atmosphere of mutual learning fostered. Communication further benefits from clearly defining roles, responsibilities, and terms of engagement for all involved; explicitly and transparently identifying goals and objectives of the MSE before modeling has begun; and, when appropriate, revisiting goals and objectives throughout the MSE process. Although MSEs are not without limitations, the participatory modeling framework, wherein stakeholders are actively engaged at each stage of MSE development, provides a useful mechanism to support fisheries management.The accepted manuscript in pdf format is listed with the files at the bottom of this page. The presentation of the authors' names and (or) special characters in the title of the manuscript may differ slightly between what is listed on this page and what is listed in the pdf file of the accepted manuscript; that in the pdf file of the accepted manuscript is what was submitted by the author

The Effects of Sub-Regional Climate Velocity on the Distribution and Spatial Extent of Marine Species Assemblages.

Many studies illustrate variable patterns in individual species distribution shifts in response to changing temperature. However, an assemblage, a group of species that shares a common environmental niche, will likely exhibit similar responses to climate changes, and these community-level responses may have significant implications for ecosystem function. Therefore, we examine the relationship between observed shifts of species in assemblages and regional climate velocity (i.e., the rate and direction of change of temperature isotherms). The assemblages are defined in two sub-regions of the U.S. Northeast Shelf that have heterogeneous oceanography and bathymetry using four decades of bottom trawl survey data and we explore temporal changes in distribution, spatial range extent, thermal habitat area, and biomass, within assemblages. These sub-regional analyses allow the dissection of the relative roles of regional climate velocity and local physiography in shaping observed distribution shifts. We find that assemblages of species associated with shallower, warmer waters tend to shift west-southwest and to shallower waters over time, possibly towards cooler temperatures in the semi-enclosed Gulf of Maine, while species assemblages associated with relatively cooler and deeper waters shift deeper, but with little latitudinal change. Conversely, species assemblages associated with warmer and shallower water on the broad, shallow continental shelf from the Mid-Atlantic Bight to Georges Bank shift strongly northeast along latitudinal gradients with little change in depth. Shifts in depth among the southern species associated with deeper and cooler waters are more variable, although predominantly shifts are toward deeper waters. In addition, spatial expansion and contraction of species assemblages in each region corresponds to the area of suitable thermal habitat, but is inversely related to assemblage biomass. This suggests that assemblage distribution shifts in conjunction with expansion or contraction of thermal habitat acts to compress or stretch marine species assemblages, which may respectively amplify or dilute species interactions to an extent that is rarely considered. Overall, regional differences in climate change effects on the movement and extent of species assemblages hold important implications for management, mitigation, and adaptation on the U.S. Northeast Shelf