Chance in the Modern Synthesis

The modern synthesis in evolutionary biology is taken to be that period in which a consensus developed among biologists about the major causes of evolution, a consensus that informed research in evolutionary biology for at least a half century. As such, it is a particularly fruitful period to consider when reflecting on the meaning and role of chance in evolutionary explanation. Biologists of this period make reference to “chance” and loose cognates of “chance,” such as: “random,” “contingent,” “accidental,” “haphazard,” or “stochastic.” Of course, what an author might mean by “chance” in any specific context varies. In the following, we first off er a historiographical note on the synthesis. Second, we introduce five ways in which synthesis authors spoke about chance

A global consistent positive effect of urban green area size on bird richness

Background: Although the species-urban green area relationship (SARu) has been analyzed worldwide, the global consistency of its parameters, such as the fit and the slope of models, remains unexplored. Moreover, the SARu can be explained by 20 different models. Therefore, our objective was to evaluate which models provide a better explanation of SARus and, focusing on the power model, to evaluate the global heterogeneity in its fit and slope. Methods: We tested the performance of multiple statistical models in accounting for the way in which species richness increases with area, and examined whether variability in model form was associated with various methodological and environmental factors. Focusing on the power model, we analyzed the global heterogeneity in the fit and slope of the models through a meta-analysis. Results: Among 20 analyzed models, the linear model provided the best fit to the most datasets, was the top ranked model according to our efficiency criterion, and was the top overall ranked model. The Kobayashi and power models were the second and third overall ranked models, respectively. The number of green areas and the minimum number of species within a green area were the only significant variables explaining the variation in model form and performance, accounting for less than 10% of the variation. Based on the power model, there was a consistent overall fit (r 2 = 0.50) and positive slope of 0.20 for the species richness increase with area worldwide. Conclusions: The good fit of the linear model to our SARu datasets contrasts with the non-linear SAR frequently found in true and non-urban habitat island systems; however, this finding may be a result of the small sample size of many SARu datasets. The overall power model slope of 0.20 suggests low levels of isolation among urban green patches, or alternatively that habitat specialist and area sensitive species have already been extirpated from urban green areas.Fil: Levau, Lucas M.. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Ecología, Genética y Evolución de Buenos Aires. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Ecología, Genética y Evolución de Buenos Aires; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ecología, Genética y Evolución; ArgentinaFil: Ruggiero, Adriana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte. Instituto de Investigaciones en Biodiversidad y Medioambiente. Universidad Nacional del Comahue. Centro Regional Universidad Bariloche. Instituto de Investigaciones en Biodiversidad y Medioambiente; Argentina. Universidad Nacional del Comahue. Centro Regional Universitario Bariloche. Laboratorio de Ecotono; ArgentinaFil: Matthews, Thomas J.. Universidade dos Açores; Portugal. University of Birmingham; Reino UnidoFil: Bellocq, Maria Isabel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Ecología, Genética y Evolución de Buenos Aires. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Ecología, Genética y Evolución de Buenos Aires; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ecología, Genética y Evolución; Argentin

A major QTL corresponding to the Rk locus for resistance to root-knot nematodes in cowpea (Vigna unguiculata L. Walp.).

Key messageGenome resolution of a major QTL associated with the Rk locus in cowpea for resistance to root-knot nematodes has significance for plant breeding programs and R gene characterization. Cowpea (Vigna unguiculata L. Walp.) is a susceptible host of root-knot nematodes (Meloidogyne spp.) (RKN), major plant-parasitic pests in global agriculture. To date, breeding for host resistance in cowpea has relied on phenotypic selection which requires time-consuming and expensive controlled infection assays. To facilitate marker-based selection, we aimed to identify and map quantitative trait loci (QTL) conferring the resistance trait. One recombinant inbred line (RIL) and two F2:3 populations, each derived from a cross between a susceptible and a resistant parent, were genotyped with genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers. The populations were screened in the field for root-galling symptoms and/or under growth-chamber conditions for nematode reproduction levels using M. incognita and M. javanica biotypes. One major QTL was mapped consistently on linkage group VuLG11 of each population. By genotyping additional cowpea lines and near-isogenic lines derived from conventional backcrossing, we confirmed that the detected QTL co-localized with the genome region associated with the Rk locus for RKN resistance that has been used in conventional breeding for many decades. This chromosomal location defined with flanking markers will be a valuable target in marker-assisted breeding and for positional cloning of genes controlling RKN resistance

Chance in the Modern Synthesis

The modern synthesis in evolutionary biology is taken to be that period in which a consensus developed among biologists about the major causes of evolution, a consensus that informed research in evolutionary biology for at least a half century. As such, it is a particularly fruitful period to consider when reflecting on the meaning and role of chance in evolutionary explanation. Biologists of this period make reference to “chance” and loose cognates of “chance,” such as: “random,” “contingent,” “accidental,” “haphazard,” or “stochastic.” Of course, what an author might mean by “chance” in any specific context varies. In the following, we first off er a historiographical note on the synthesis. Second, we introduce five ways in which synthesis authors spoke about chance

The Spitzer Gould Belt Survey of Large Nearby Interstellar Clouds: Discovery of A Dense Embedded Cluster in the Serpens-Aquila Rift

We report the discovery of a nearby, embedded cluster of young stellar objects, associated filamentary infrared dark cloud, and 4.5 mu m shock emission knots from outflows detected in Spitzer IRAC mid-infrared imaging of the Serpens-Aquila Rift obtained as part of the Spitzer Gould Belt Legacy Survey. We also present radial velocity measurements of the region from molecular line observations obtained with the Submillimeter Array (SMA) that suggest the cluster is comoving with the Serpens Main embedded cluster to the north. We therefore assign it 3 degrees the same distance, 260 pc. The core of the new cluster, which we call Serpens South, is composed of an unusually large fraction of protostars (77%) at high mean surface density (> 430 pc(-2)) and short median nearest neighbor spacing (3700 AU). We perform basic cluster structure characterization using nearest neighbor surface density mapping of the YSOs and compare our findings to other known clusters with equivalent analyses available in the literature.Astronom

Fiber-optic endoscopic evaluation of swallowing to assess swallowing outcomes as a function of head position in a normal population

BACKGROUND: Head position practice has been shown to influence pill-swallowing ability, but the impact of head position on measures of swallowing outcomes has not yet been studied with fiber-optic endoscopic evaluation of swallowing (FEES). The primary purpose of this study was to determine whether head position impacts penetration-aspiration scale scores and/or post-swallow pharyngeal residue as assessed by FEES. Documenting the incidence of pharyngeal residue and laryngeal penetration and aspiration in a normal population was a secondary goal. METHODS: Adults without swallowing difficulties (N = 84) were taught a pill swallowing technique based on learning five head positions and were asked to practice with small, hard candies (e.g., TicTacs) for two weeks. Then they demonstrated swallowing in each of the head positions for two conditions, liquid and purée, while undergoing FEES. RESULTS: Out of 840 examined swallows, one event of aspiration and 5 events of penetration occurred. During practice >50% participants found positions they preferred over the center position for swallowing but head position was not associated with penetration-aspiration scores assessed by FEES. Significant associations and non-significant trends were found between pharyngeal residue and three variables: age, most preferred head position, and least preferred head position. CONCLUSION: Head position during swallowing (head up) and age greater than 40 years may result in increased pharyngeal residue but not laryngeal penetration or aspiration

High performance cryogen-free microkelvin platform

Improved accessibility to the microkelvin temperature regime is important for future research in quantum materials; for quantum information science; and for applications of quantum sensors. Here we report the design and performance of a microkelvin platform based on a nuclear demagnetization stage, engineered and well optimized for operation on a standard cryogen-free dilution refrigerator. PrNi5 is used as the dominant refrigerant. The platform provides a large area for mounting experiments in an ultralow temperature, low electromagnetic noise environment. The performance is characterized using current sensing noise thermometry. Temperatures as low as 395 $\mu$K have been reached, and a protocol has been established in which it is possible to operate experiments below 1 mK for 95% of the time, providing an efficient cryogen-free microkelvin environment for a wide range of science applicationsComment: 8 pages, 5 figure

The Luminosities of Protostars in the Spitzer c2d and Gould Belt Legacy Clouds

Motivated by the long-standing "luminosity problem" in low-mass star formation whereby protostars are underluminous compared to theoretical expectations, we identify 230 protostars in 18 molecular clouds observed by two Spitzer Space Telescope Legacy surveys of nearby star-forming regions. We compile complete spectral energy distributions, calculate Lbol for each source, and study the protostellar luminosity distribution. This distribution extends over three orders of magnitude, from 0.01 Lsun - 69 Lsun, and has a mean and median of 4.3 Lsun and 1.3 Lsun, respectively. The distributions are very similar for Class 0 and Class I sources except for an excess of low luminosity (Lbol < 0.5 Lsun) Class I sources compared to Class 0. 100 out of the 230 protostars (43%) lack any available data in the far-infrared and submillimeter (70 um < wavelength < 850 um) and have Lbol underestimated by factors of 2.5 on average, and up to factors of 8-10 in extreme cases. Correcting these underestimates for each source individually once additional data becomes available will likely increase both the mean and median of the sample by 35% - 40%. We discuss and compare our results to several recent theoretical studies of protostellar luminosities and show that our new results do not invalidate the conclusions of any of these studies. As these studies demonstrate that there is more than one plausible accretion scenario that can match observations, future attention is clearly needed. The better statistics provided by our increased dataset should aid such future work.Comment: Accepted for publication in AJ. 21 pages, 10 figures, 4 table

Young Stellar Objects in the Gould Belt

We present the full catalog of Young Stellar Objects (YSOs) identified in the 18 molecular clouds surveyed by the Spitzer Space Telescope "cores to disks" (c2d) and "Gould Belt" (GB) Legacy surveys. Using standard techniques developed by the c2d project, we identify 3239 candidate YSOs in the 18 clouds, 2966 of which survive visual inspection and form our final catalog of YSOs in the Gould Belt. We compile extinction corrected SEDs for all 2966 YSOs and calculate and tabulate the infrared spectral index, bolometric luminosity, and bolometric temperature for each object. We find that 326 (11%), 210 (7%), 1248 (42%), and 1182 (40%) are classified as Class 0+I, Flat-spectrum, Class II, and Class III, respectively, and show that the Class III sample suffers from an overall contamination rate by background AGB stars between 25% and 90%. Adopting standard assumptions, we derive durations of 0.40-0.78 Myr for Class 0+I YSOs and 0.26-0.50 Myr for Flat-spectrum YSOs, where the ranges encompass uncertainties in the adopted assumptions. Including information from (sub)millimeter wavelengths, one-third of the Class 0+I sample is classified as Class 0, leading to durations of 0.13-0.26 Myr (Class 0) and 0.27-0.52 Myr (Class I). We revisit infrared color-color diagrams used in the literature to classify YSOs and propose minor revisions to classification boundaries in these diagrams. Finally, we show that the bolometric temperature is a poor discriminator between Class II and Class III YSOs.Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJS. 29 pages, 11 figures, 14 tables, 4 appendices. Full versions of data tables (to be published in machine-readable format by ApJS) available at the end of the latex source cod

The Quantity Theory of Money is Valid. The New Keynesians are Wrong!

We test the quantity theory of money (QTM) using a novel approach and a large new sample. We do not follow the usual approach of first differentiating the logarithm of the Cambridge equation to obtain an equation relating the growth rate of real GDP, the growth rate of money and inflation. These variables must then again be ‘integrated’ by averaging in order to obtain stable relationships. Instead we suggest a much simpler procedure for testing directly the stability of the coefficient of the Cambridge equation. For 125 countries and post-war data we find the coefficient to be surprisingly stable. We do not select for high inflation episodes as was done in most empirical studies; inflation rates do not even appear in our data set. Much work supporting the QTM has been done by economic historians and at the University of Chicago by Milton Friedman and his associates. The QTM was a foundation stone of the monetarist revolution. Subsequently belief in it waned. The currently dominant New Keynesian School, implicitly or explicitly denies the validity of the QTM. We survey this history and argue that the QTM is valid and New Keynesians are wrong