Predictors of disease severity in children presenting from the community with febrile illnesses: a systematic review of prognostic studies.

Early identification of children at risk of severe febrile illness can optimise referral, admission and treatment decisions, particularly in resource-limited settings. We aimed to identify prognostic clinical and laboratory factors that predict progression to severe disease in febrile children presenting from the community. We systematically reviewed publications retrieved from MEDLINE, Web of Science and Embase between 31 May 1999 and 30 April 2020, supplemented by hand search of reference lists and consultation with an expert Technical Advisory Panel. Studies evaluating prognostic factors or clinical prediction models in children presenting from the community with febrile illnesses were eligible. The primary outcome was any objective measure of disease severity ascertained within 30 days of enrolment. We calculated unadjusted likelihood ratios (LRs) for comparison of prognostic factors, and compared clinical prediction models using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs). Risk of bias and applicability of studies were assessed using the Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool and the Quality In Prognosis Studies tool. Of 5949 articles identified, 18 studies evaluating 200 prognostic factors and 25 clinical prediction models in 24 530 children were included. Heterogeneity between studies precluded formal meta-analysis. Malnutrition (positive LR range 1.56-11.13), hypoxia (2.10-8.11), altered consciousness (1.24-14.02), and markers of acidosis (1.36-7.71) and poor peripheral perfusion (1.78-17.38) were the most common predictors of severe disease. Clinical prediction model performance varied widely (AUROC range 0.49-0.97). Concerns regarding applicability were identified and most studies were at high risk of bias. Few studies address this important public health question. We identified prognostic factors from a wide range of geographic contexts that can help clinicians assess febrile children at risk of progressing to severe disease. Multicentre studies that include outpatients are required to explore generalisability and develop data-driven tools to support patient prioritisation and triage at the community level. CRD42019140542

Comparative field performance and adherence to test results of four malaria rapid diagnostic tests among febrile patients more than five years of age in Blantyre, Malawi

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Malaria rapid diagnostics tests (RDTs) can increase availability of laboratory-based diagnosis and improve the overall management of febrile patients in malaria endemic areas. In preparation to scale-up RDTs in health facilities in Malawi, an evaluation of four RDTs to help guide national-level decision-making was conducted.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A cross sectional study of four histidine rich-protein-type-2- (HRP2) based RDTs at four health centres in Blantyre, Malawi, was undertaken to evaluate the sensitivity and specificity of RDTs, assess prescriber adherence to RDT test results and explore operational issues regarding RDT implementation. Three RDTs were evaluated in only one health centre each and one RDT was evaluated in two health centres. Light microscopy in a reference laboratory was used as the gold standard.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A total of 2,576 patients were included in the analysis. All of the RDTs tested had relatively high sensitivity for detecting any parasitaemia [Bioline SD (97%), First response malaria (92%), Paracheck (91%), ICT diagnostics (90%)], but low specificity [Bioline SD (39%), First response malaria (42%), Paracheck (68%), ICT diagnostics (54%)]. Specificity was significantly lower in patients who self-treated with an anti-malarial in the previous two weeks (odds ratio (OR) 0.5; p-value < 0.001), patients 5-15 years old versus patients > 15 years old (OR 0.4, p-value < 0.001) and when the RDT was performed by a community health worker versus a laboratory technician (OR 0.4; p-value < 0.001). Health workers correctly prescribed anti-malarials for patients with positive RDT results, but ignored negative RDT results with 58% of patients with a negative RDT result treated with an anti-malarial.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The results of this evaluation, combined with other published data and global recommendations, have been used to select RDTs for national scale-up. In addition, the study identified some key issues that need to be further delineated: the low field specificity of RDTs, variable RDT performance by different cadres of health workers and the need for a robust quality assurance system. Close monitoring of RDT scale-up will be needed to ensure that RDTs truly improve malaria case management.</p

Use of RDTs to improve malaria diagnosis and fever case management at primary health care facilities in Uganda

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Early and accurate diagnosis of malaria followed by prompt treatment reduces the risk of severe disease in malaria endemic regions. Presumptive treatment of malaria is widely practised where microscopy or rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) are not readily available. With the introduction of artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) for treatment of malaria in many low-resource settings, there is need to target treatment to patients with parasitologically confirmed malaria in order to improve quality of care, reduce over consumption of anti-malarials, reduce drug pressure and in turn delay development and spread of drug resistance. This study evaluated the effect of malaria RDTs on health workers' anti-malarial drug (AMD) prescriptions among outpatients at low level health care facilities (LLHCF) within different malaria epidemiological settings in Uganda.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>All health workers (HWs) in 21 selected intervention (where RDTs were deployed) LLHF were invited for training on the use RDTs. All HWs were trained to use RDTs for parasitological diagnosis of all suspected malaria cases irrespective of age. Five LLHCFs with clinical diagnosis (CD only) were included for comparison. Subsequently AMD prescriptions were compared using both a 'pre - post' and 'intervention - control' analysis designs. In-depth interviews of the HWs were conducted to explore any factors that influence AMD prescription practices.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A total of 166,131 out-patient attendances (OPD) were evaluated at 21 intervention LLHCFs. Overall use of RDTs resulted in a 38% point reduction in AMD prescriptions. There was a two-fold reduction (RR 0.62, 95% CI 0.55-0.70) in AMD prescription with the greatest reduction in the hypo-endemic setting (RR 0.46 95% CI 0.51-0.53) but no significant change in the urban setting (RR1.01, p-value = 0.820). Over 90% of all eligible OPD patients were offered a test. An average of 30% (range 25%-35%) of the RDT-negative fever patients received AMD prescriptions. When the test result was negative, children under five years of age were two to three times more likely (OR 2.6 p-value <0.001) to receive anti-malarial prescriptions relative to older age group. Of the 63 HWs interviewed 92% believed that a positive RDT result confirmed malaria, while only 49% believed that a negative RDT result excluded malaria infection.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Use of RDTs resulted in a 2-fold reduction in anti-malarial drug prescription at LLHCFs. The study demonstrated that RDT use is feasible at LLHCFs, and can lead to better targetting of malaria treatment. Nationwide deployment of RDTs in a systematic manner should be prioritised in order to improve fever case management. The process should include plans to educate HWs about the utility of RDTs in order to maximize acceptance and uptake of the diagnostic tools and thereby leading to the benefits of parasitological diagnosis of malaria.</p

The cost-effectiveness of parasitologic diagnosis for malaria-suspected patients in an era of combination therapy

The introduction of artemisinin-based combination therapy in sub-Saharan Africa has prompted calls for increased use of parasitologic diagnosis for malaria. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) in comparison to microscopy in guiding treatment of non-severe febrile illness at varying levels of malaria endemicity using data on test accuracy and costs collected as part of a Tanzanian trial. If prescribers complied with current guidelines, microscopy would give rise to lower average costs per patient correctly treated than RDTs in areas of both high and low transmission. RDT introduction would result in an additional 2.3% and 9.4% of patients correctly treated, at an incremental cost of $25 and$7 in the low and high transmission settings, respectively. Cost-effectiveness would be worse if prescribers do not comply with test results. The cost of this additional benefit may be higher than many countries can afford without external assistance or lower RDT prices. Copyright © 2007 by The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene

Pertobatan Akademis

The biggest difficulty of humans cannot change or advance the quality of life is an unwillingness to change their errors and shortcomings and to repent from it. There is also willing to change but they do not change just because no action and do not really do it. There are also people who have already known that it is true, accurate, should be performed and corresponding to the norms, but still they live in sin and self-interest to ignore the interests of others. Even worse is evil (sin) is often covered in hypocrisy behind beautiful, sweet, gentle, and courteous words to make people mesmerized/hypnotized. In the case of real repentance, it should demand a match between words and actions. If there is repentance, there is a change and peace. Therefore, humans must sincerely repent and strive for it

Evolution and Impact of Bars over the Last Eight Billion Years: Early Results from GEMS

Bars drive the dynamical evolution of disk galaxies by redistributing mass and angular momentum, and they are ubiquitous in present-day spirals. Early studies of the Hubble Deep Field reported a dramatic decline in the rest-frame optical bar fraction f_opt to below 5% at redshifts z>0.7, implying that disks at these epochs are fundamentally different from present-day spirals. The GEMS bar project, based on ~8300 galaxies with HST-based morphologies and accurate redshifts over the range 0.2-1.1, aims at constraining the evolution and impact of bars over the last 8 Gyr. We present early results indicating that f_opt remains nearly constant at ~30% over the range z=0.2-1.1,corresponding to lookback times of ~2.5-8 Gyr. The bars detected at z>0.6 are primarily strong with ellipticities of 0.4-0.8. Remarkably, the bar fraction and range of bar sizes observed at z>0.6 appear to be comparable to the values measured in the local Universe for bars of corresponding strengths. Implications for bar evolution models are discussed.Comment: Submitted June 25, 2004. 10 pages 5 figures. To appear in Penetrating Bars through Masks of Cosmic Dust: The Hubble Tuning Fork Strikes a New Note, eds. D. Block, K. Freeman, R. Groess, I. Puerari, & E.K. Block (Dordrecht: Kluwer), in pres

Bar Evolution Over the Last Eight Billion Years: A Constant Fraction of Strong Bars in GEMS

One third of present-day spirals host optically visible strong bars that drive their dynamical evolution. However, the fundamental question of how bars evolve over cosmological times has yet to be addressed, and even the frequency of bars at intermediate redshifts remains controversial. We investigate the frequency of bars out to z~1.0 drawing on a sample of 1590 galaxies from the GEMS survey, which provides morphologies from HST ACS two-color images, and highly accurate redshifts from the COMBO-17 survey. We identify spiral galaxies using the Sersic index, concentration parameter, and rest-frame color. We characterize bars and disks by fitting ellipses to F606W and F850LP images, taking advantage of the two bands to minimize bandpass shifting. We exclude highly inclined (i>60 deg) galaxies to ensure reliable morphological classifications, and apply completeness cuts of M_v <= -19.3 and -20.6. More than 40% of the bars that we detect have semi major axes a<0.5" and would be easily missed in earlier surveys without the small PSF of ACS. The bars that we can reliably detect are fairly strong (with ellipticities e>=0.4) and have a in the range ~1.2-13 kpc. We find that the optical fraction of such strong bars remains at ~(30% +- 6%) from the present-day out to look-back times of 2-6 Gyr (z~0.2-0.7) and 6-8 Gyr (z~0.7-1.0); it certainly shows no sign of a drastic decline at z>0.7. Our findings of a large and similar bar fraction at these three epochs favor scenarios in which cold gravitationally unstable disks are already in place by z~1, and where on average bars have a long lifetime (well above 2 Gyr). The distributions of structural bar properties in the two slices are, however, not statistically identical and therefore allow for the possibility that the bar strengths and sizes may evolve over time.Comment: Accepted by ApJ Letters, to appear in Nov 2004 issue. Minor revisions,updated reference

An Economic Evaluation of Home Management of Malaria in Uganda: An Interactive Markov Model

BACKGROUND: Home management of malaria (HMM), promoting presumptive treatment of febrile children in the community, is advocated to improve prompt appropriate treatment of malaria in Africa. The cost-effectiveness of HMM is likely to vary widely in different settings and with the antimalarial drugs used. However, no data on the cost-effectiveness of HMM programmes are available. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A Markov model was constructed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of HMM as compared to conventional care for febrile illnesses in children without HMM. The model was populated with data from Uganda, but is designed to be interactive, allowing the user to adjust certain parameters, including the antimalarials distributed. The model calculates the cost per disability adjusted life year averted and presents the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio compared to a threshold value. Model output is stratified by level of malaria transmission and the probability that a child would receive appropriate care from a health facility, to indicate the circumstances in which HMM is likely to be cost-effective. The model output suggests that the cost-effectiveness of HMM varies with malaria transmission, the probability of appropriate care, and the drug distributed. Where transmission is high and the probability of appropriate care is limited, HMM is likely to be cost-effective from a provider perspective. Even with the most effective antimalarials, HMM remains an attractive intervention only in areas of high malaria transmission and in medium transmission areas with a lower probability of appropriate care. HMM is generally not cost-effective in low transmission areas, regardless of which antimalarial is distributed. Considering the analysis from the societal perspective decreases the attractiveness of HMM. CONCLUSION: Syndromic HMM for children with fever may be a useful strategy for higher transmission settings with limited health care and diagnosis, but is not appropriate for all settings. HMM may need to be tailored to specific settings, accounting for local malaria transmission intensity and availability of health services

The impact of an intervention to introduce malaria rapid diagnostic tests on fever case management in a high transmission setting in Uganda: A mixed-methods cluster-randomized trial (PRIME).

Rapid diagnostic tests for malaria (mRDTs) have been scaled-up widely across Africa. The PRIME study evaluated an intervention aiming to improve fever case management using mRDTs at public health centers in Uganda. A cluster-randomized trial was conducted from 2010-13 in Tororo, a high malaria transmission setting. Twenty public health centers were randomized in a 1:1 ratio to intervention or control. The intervention included training in health center management, fever case management with mRDTs, and patient-centered services; plus provision of mRDTs and artemether-lumefantrine (AL) when stocks ran low. Three rounds of Interviews were conducted with caregivers of children under five years of age as they exited health centers (N = 1400); reference mRDTs were done in children with fever (N = 1336). Health worker perspectives on mRDTs were elicited through semi-structured questionnaires (N = 49) and in-depth interviews (N = 10). The primary outcome was inappropriate treatment of malaria, defined as the proportion of febrile children who were not treated according to guidelines based on the reference mRDT. There was no difference in inappropriate treatment of malaria between the intervention and control arms (24.0% versus 29.7%, adjusted risk ratio 0.81 95\% CI: 0.56, 1.17 p = 0.24). Most children (76.0\%) tested positive by reference mRDT, but many were not prescribed AL (22.5\% intervention versus 25.9\% control, p = 0.53). Inappropriate treatment of children testing negative by reference mRDT with AL was also common (31.3\% invention vs 42.4\% control, p = 0.29). Health workers appreciated mRDTs but felt that integrating testing into practice was challenging given constraints on time and infrastructure. The PRIME intervention did not have the desired impact on inappropriate treatment of malaria for children under five. In this high transmission setting, use of mRDTs did not lead to the reductions in antimalarial prescribing seen elsewhere. Broader investment in health systems, including infrastructure and staffing, will be required to improve fever case management

Military objectives in cyber warfare

This Chapter discusses the possible problems arising from the application of the principle of distinction under the law of armed conflict to cyber attacks. It first identifies when cyber attacks qualify as ‘attacks’ under the law of armed conflict and then examines the two elements of the definition of ‘military objective’ contained in Article 52(2) of the 1977 Protocol I additional to the 1949 Geneva Conventions on the Protection of Victims of War. The Chapter concludes that this definition is flexible enough to apply in the cyber context without significant problems and that none of the challenges that characterize cyber attacks hinders the application of the principle of distinction