Predicting Future Weight Status From Measurements Made In Early Childhood: A Novel Longitudinal Approach Applied To Millennium Cohort Study Data

Background/objective: There are reports that childhood obesity tracks into later life. Nevertheless, some tracking statistics, e.g. correlations, do not quantify individual agreement, while others, e.g. diagnostic test statistics, can be difficult to translate into practice. We aimed to employ a novel analytic approach, based on ordinal logistic regression, to predict weight status of 11-year-old children from measurements at age 5.Subjects/methods: UK 1990 growth references were used to generate clinical weight status categories of 12 076 children enrolled in the Millennium Cohort Study. Using ordinal regression, we derived the predicted probability (percent chances) of an 11-year-old child becoming underweight, normal weight, overweight, obese and severely obese from their weight status category at age 5.Results: The chances of becoming obese (including severely obese) at age 11 were 5.7% (95% CI: 5.2% to 6.2%) for a normal weight 5-year-old and 32.3% (29.8% to 34.8%) for an overweight 5-year-old. An obese 5-year-old child had a 68.1% (63.8% to 72.5%) chance of remaining obese at 11 years. Severely obese 5-year-old children had a 50.3% (43.1% to 57.4%) c 50 hance of remaining severely obese. There were no substantial differences between sexes. Non-deprived obese 5- year-old boys had a lower probability of remaining obese than deprived obese boys: -21.8% (-40.4% to -3.2%). This association was not observed in obese 5-year-old girls, in whom the non-deprived group had a probability of remaining obese 7% higher (-15.2% to 29.2%). The sex difference in this interaction of deprivation and baseline weight status was therefore -28.8% (-59.3% to 1.6%).Conclusions: We have demonstrated that ordinal logistic regression can be an informative approach to predict the chances of a child changing to, or from, an unhealthy weight status. This approach is easy to interpret and could be applied to any longitudinal dataset with an ordinal outcome

Development of a core outcome set for behavioural weight management programmes for adults with overweight and obesity:protocol for obtaining expert consensus using Delphi methodology

Introduction: Weight management interventions in research studies and in clinical practice differ in length, advice, frequency of meetings, staff and cost. Very few real-world programmes have published patient-related outcomes, and those that have published used different ways of reporting the information, making it impossible to compare interventions and further develop the evidence base. Developing a core outcome set for behavioural weight management programmes (BWMPs) for adults with overweight and obesity will allow different BWMPs to be compared and reveal which interventions work best for which members of the population. Methods and analysis: An expert group, comprised of 40 people who work in, refer to, or attend BWMPs for adults with overweight and obesity, will be asked to decide which outcomes services should report. An online Delphi process will be employed to help the group reach consensus as to which outcomes should be measured and reported, and which definitions/instruments should be used in order to do so. The first stage of the Delphi process (three rounds of questionnaires) will focus on outcomes while the second stage (three additional rounds of questionnaires) will focus on definition/instrument selection. Ethics and dissemination: Ethical approval for this study has been received from the University of Glasgow College of Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences Ethics Committee. With regard to disseminating results, a report will be submitted to our funding body, the Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government Health Department. In addition, early findings will be shared with Public Health England and Health Scotland, and results communicated via conference presentations, peer review publication and our institutions’ social media platforms