Ways To Help And Ways To Hinder: Climate, Health, And Food Security In Alaska

Thesis (Ph.D.) University of Alaska Fairbanks, 2010This dissertation explores various ecological, socioeconomic, sociopolitical, and biophysical dimensions food security in Alaska. The context for this work is dramatic climatic change and ongoing demographic, socioeconomic and cultural transitions in Alaska's rural and urban communities. The unifying focus of the papers included here are human health. I provide multiple perspectives on how human health relates to community and ecosystem health, and of the roles of managers, policy makers, and researchers can play in supporting positive health outcomes. Topics include methylmercury (MeHg) contamination of wild fish, the impacts of changes to Alaskan landscapes and seascapes on subsistence and commercial activities, and on ways to design sustainable natural resource policies and co-management regimes such that they mimic natural systems. The operating premise of this work is that sustainability is ostensibly a matter of human health; the finding is that human health can provide a powerful point of integration for social and ecological sustainability research

Climigration? Population and climate change in Arctic Alaska

Residents of towns and villages in Arctic Alaska live on “the front line of climate change.” Some communities face immediate threats from erosion and flooding associated with thawing permafrost, increasing river flows, and reduced sea ice protection of shorelines. The term climigration, referring to migration caused by climate change, originally was coined for these places. Although initial applications emphasized the need for government relocation policies, it has elsewhere been applied more broadly to encompass unplanned migration as well. Some historical movements have been attributed to climate change, but closer study tends to find multiple causes, making it difficult to quantify the climate contribution. Clearer attribution might come from comparisons of migration rates among places that are similar in most respects, apart from known climatic impacts. We apply this approach using annual 1990–2014 time series on 43 Arctic Alaska towns and villages. Within-community time plots show no indication of enhanced out-migration from the most at-risk communities. More formally, there is no significant difference between net migration rates of at-risk and other places, testing several alternative classifications. Although climigration is not detectable to date, growing risks make either planned or unplanned movements unavoidable in the near future

Staying in place during times of change in Arctic Alaska: The implications of attachment,alternatives, and buffering

The relationship between stability and change in social-ecological systems has received considerable attention in recent years, including the expectation that significant environmental changes will drive observable consequences for individuals, communities, and populations. Migration, as one example of response to adverse economic or environmental changes, has been observed in many places, including parts of the Far North. In Arctic Alaska, a relative lack of demographic or migratory response to rapid environmental and other changes has been observed. To understand why Arctic Alaska appears different, we draw on the literature on environmentally driven migration, focusing on three mechanisms that could account for the lack of response: attachment, the desire to remain in place, or the inability to relocate successfully; alternatives, ways to achieve similar outcomes through different means; and buffering, the reliance on subsidies or use of reserves to delay impacts. Each explanation has different implications for research and policy, indicating a need to further explore the relative contribution that each makes to a given situation in order to develop more effective responses locally and regionally. Given that the Arctic is on the front lines of climate change, these explanations are likely relevant to the ways changes play out in other parts of the world. Our review also underscores the importance of further attention to the details of social dynamics in climate change impacts and responses

Ways to Help and Ways to Hinder: Governance for Effective Adaptation to an Uncertain Climate

This paper compares two case studies in Alaska, one on commercial fishers of the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands region and the other on moose hunters of Interior Alaska, to identify how governance arrangements and management strategies enhance or limit people’s ability to respond effectively to changing climatic and environmental conditions. The two groups face similar challenges regarding the impacts of a changing climate on wild fish and game, but they tell very different stories regarding how and under what conditions these impacts challenge their harvest activities. In both regions, people describe dramatic changes in weather, land, and seascape conditions, and distributions of fish and game. A key finding is that the “command-and-control” model of governance in the Alaska Interior, as implemented through state and federal management tools such as registration hunts and short open seasons, limits effective local responses to environmental conditions, while the more decentralized model of governance created by the Limited Access Privilege systems of the Bering Sea allows fishers great flexibility to respond. We discuss ways to implement aspects of a decentralized decision-making model in the Interior that would benefit hunters by increasing their adaptability and success, while also improving conservation outcomes. Our findings also demonstrate the usefulness of the diagnostic framework employed here for facilitating comparative crossregional analyses of natural resource use and management.Ce document établit une comparaison entre deux études de cas effectuées en Alaska, l’une portant sur les pêcheurs commerciaux de la mer de Béring et de la région des Aléoutiennes et l’autre, sur les chasseurs d’orignaux de l’intérieur de l’Alaska. Cette comparaison avait pour but de déterminer comment les ententes de gouvernance et les stratégies de gestion rehaussent ou restreignent l’aptitude des gens à réagir de manière efficace au changement climatique et aux conditions environnementales. Dans le cas des deux groupes, les défis sont semblables en ce qui a trait aux incidences du changement climatique sur le poisson sauvage et le gibier, mais il n’en reste pas moins que les deux groupes témoignent d’histoires très différentes relativement à la façon dont les incidences influencent leurs activités de chasse ou de pêche, et les circonstances dans lesquelles les incidences présentent des défis à leurs activités de chasse ou de pêche. Dans les deux cas, les individus décrivent des changements dramatiques sur le plan des conditions météorologiques, du paysage terrestre et du paysage marin, ainsi que sur le plan de la répartition du poisson et du gibier. Une des grandes observations ayant émané de cette comparaison, c’est que le modèle de gouvernance consistant à « commander et contrôler » qui est en vigueur dans l’intérieur de l’Alaska, tel qu’imposé par les outils de gestion de l’État et du gouvernement fédéral, et qui se traduit notamment par l’enregistrement des chasses et par des saisons de chasse courtes, se trouve à restreindre l’efficacité des réactions locales vis-à-vis des conditions environnementales, tandis que le mode de gouvernance plus décentralisé créé par les systèmes de privilège à accès limité de la mer de Béring donne aux pêcheurs une plus grande souplesse pour réagir. Nous nous penchons sur diverses façons de mettre en oeuvre les aspects d’un modèle de prise de décisions décentralisé dans l’intérieur de manière à ce que les chasseurs en bénéficient en augmentant leur adaptabilité et leur succès, tout en améliorant les résultats de conservation. Nos constatations démontrent aussi l’utilité du cadre diagnostic employé ici pour faciliter les analyses inter-régionales en matière d’utilisation et de gestion des ressources naturelles

When a Water Problem Is More Than a Water Problem: Fragmentation, Framing, and the Case of Agricultural Wetland Drainage

Complex interactions between water, society, the economy, and the environment necessitate attention to how water issues are framed, and the limitations of a water-centric framework for analyzing or solving problems. We explore this complexity through an example of an existing complex, or wicked, policy problem—the case of agricultural wetland drainage in the Canadian Prairies. Agricultural wetland drainage expands the amount of productive agricultural land, increasing agricultural efficiency and productivity. Drainage is also one of the primary drivers of the loss of Canada's wetlands and is a hotly contentious issue between actors with divergent views and values in the Canadian Prairies. Using the nuances of drainage as an exemplar, we discuss how fragmented framings of water foster perspectives and solutions that fail to consider the full range of aspects and interactions, and contribute to the enduring conflicts that accompany drainage debates in many regions. First, we discuss agricultural wetland drainage as practiced in the province of Saskatchewan, where significant regulatory and governance changes are in progress. Next, we discuss the challenges of policy and governance fragmentation, both specific to water and to the surrounding system. Finally, we note potential alternative framings that, while specific to prairie water governance, provide guidance for how other complex social-ecological challenges might be approached

Selected plasma fatty acid levels in subsistence fed sled dogs along the Yukon River: a pilot study for biomonitoring

The introduction of the ‘western diet' marked a decline in omega-3 fatty acids rich foods and a concurrent increase in saturated and omega-6 fatty acids that persists today. Historically, circumpolar people have had a low incidence of obesity, diabetes and cardiovascular disease and this has been largely attributed to polyphenolic compounds and omega-3 fatty acids offered from subsistence foods. In this report, we studied sled dogs as an Arctic sentinel species for monitoring the effect of a changing diet on lipid profiles along the Yukon River. Subsistence fed village sled dogs along the Yukon River, maintained largely on salmon were compared with a control kennel maintained on commercial food. Profiles showed higher levels for long chain omega-3 fatty acids in village subsistence fed dogs compared to control dogs and an opposite trend for omega-6 fatty acids, establishing baseline levels for follow up studies. A comparison with data for previously published mercury levels from the same cohort of dogs revealed a positive correlation with alpha-linolenic fatty acid and a negative correlation with linoleic fatty acid. Food and nutritional security is a concern in the Arctic as the impacts of climate change and transport of contaminants become obvious. This study supports not only the nutritional value of a subsistence diet but also the utility of sled dogs as a sentinel for human dietary chang

Uso da capacidade preditiva como critério bayesiano de adequação de modelos

Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Instituto de Ciências Exatas, Departamento de Estatística, 2017.Certificar-se de que o modelo probabilístico proposto representa satisfatoriamente o problema e um dos principais passos na modelagem estatística, pois a escolha de um modelo que não esteja bem ajustado pode provocar prejuízos irreparáveis com a tomada de uma decisão errada. Frequentemente, o objetivo da modelagem estatística e a predição de novas observações, fazendo com que avaliar a acurácia do modelo seja imprescindível. Por em, métodos que analisam a capacidade preditiva de um modelo não são muito utilizados por sua complexidade. Este trabalho apresentou uma adaptação para a metodologia de verificação da capacidade preditiva de um modelo proposta por Gelfand (1996), que apesar de simples e intuitiva, não permitia a validação de modelos de uma maneira objetiva. A adaptação possibilitou a definição de um critério de rejeição de modelos, por meio de estudos de simulação, proporcionando um meio de discriminação imparcial para a metodologia. O desenvolvimento da proposta foi realizado sob uma perspectiva bayesiana de inferência, expondo os conceitos utilizados em sua elaboração e apresentando os procedimentos necessários para sua aplicação. A metodologia proposta foi aplicada a base de dados reais para exemplificar sua utilização, possibilitando verificar a praticidade de sua aplicação em situações reais.To ensure that a proposed probability model is a good representation of the problem is one of the main steps of statistical modelling, since choosing a model that does not have a good fit may lead to wrong decisions. Often, the aim of the statistical modelling is the prediction of new observations, making it necessary to ensure the model accuracy. This work provides an adjustment to Gelfand (1996) methodology to validate the model predictive capacity, which, although simple, does not allow an objective form of validation. The adjustment allowed the definition of a model rejection criterion, providing an impartial method to ensure model accuracy. The development of the adjustment was done on a bayesian inference approach, presenting the employed concepts and the necessary procedures to the application. The methodology was tested on a real database, exhibiting the practicality of the method on real applications

Conceptualizing the Science-Practice Interface: Lessons from a Collaborative Network on the Front-Line of Climate Change

The gap between science and practice is widely recognized as a major concern in the production and application of decision-relevant science. This research analyzed the roles and network connections of scientists, service providers, and decision makers engaged in climate science and adaptation practice in Alaska, where rapid climate change is already apparent. Our findings identify key actors as well as significant differences in the level of bonding ties between network members who perceive similarity in their social identities, bridging ties between network members across different social groups, and control of information across roles—all of which inform recommendations for adaptive capacity and the co-production of usable knowledge. We also find that some individuals engage in multiple roles in the network suggesting that conceptualizing science policy interactions with the traditional categories of science producers and consumers oversimplifies how experts engage with climate science, services, and decision making. Our research reinforces the notion that the development and application of knowledge is a networked phenomenon and highlights the importance of centralized individuals capable of playing multiple roles in their networks for effective translation of knowledge into action

Sixty Years of Modern Human Origins in the American Anthropological Association

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/65197/1/aa.2003.105.1.89.pd

Climigration? Population and climate change in Arctic Alaska

Residents of towns and villages in Arctic Alaska live on “the front line of climate change.” Some communities face immediate threats from erosion and flooding associated with thawing permafrost, increasing river flows, and reduced sea ice protection of shorelines. The term climigration, referring to migration caused by climate change, originally was coined for these places. Although initial applications emphasized the need for government relocation policies, it has elsewhere been applied more broadly to encompass unplanned migration as well. Some historical movements have been attributed to climate change, but closer study tends to find multiple causes, making it difficult to quantify the climate contribution. Clearer attribution might come from comparisons of migration rates among places that are similar in most respects, apart from known climatic impacts. We apply this approach using annual 1990–2014 time series on 43 Arctic Alaska towns and villages. Within-community time plots show no indication of enhanced out-migration from the most at-risk communities. More formally, there is no significant difference between net migration rates of at-risk and other places, testing several alternative classifications. Although climigration is not detectable to date, growing risks make either planned or unplanned movements unavoidable in the near future