Basin-scale runoff prediction: An Ensemble Kalman Filter framework based on global hydrometeorological data sets

In order to cope with the steady decline of the number of in situ gauges worldwide, there is a growing need for alternative methods to estimate runoff. We present an Ensemble Kalman Filter based approach that allows us to conclude on runoff for poorly or irregularly gauged basins. The approach focuses on the application of publicly available global hydrometeorological data sets for precipitation (GPCC, GPCP, CRU, UDEL), evapotranspiration (MODIS, FLUXNET, GLEAM, ERA interim, GLDAS), and water storage changes (GRACE, WGHM, GLDAS, MERRA LAND). Furthermore, runoff data from the GRDC and satellite altimetry derived estimates are used. We follow a least squares prediction that exploits the joint temporal and spatial auto- and cross-covariance structures of precipitation, evapotranspiration, water storage changes and runoff. We further consider time-dependent uncertainty estimates derived from all data sets. Our in-depth analysis comprises of 29 large river basins of different climate regions, with which runoff is predicted for a subset of 16 basins. Six configurations are analyzed: the Ensemble Kalman Filter (Smoother) and the hard (soft) Constrained Ensemble Kalman Filter (Smoother). Comparing the predictions to observed monthly runoff shows correlations larger than 0.5, percentage biases lower than ± 20%, and NSE-values larger than 0.5. A modified NSE-metric, stressing the difference to the mean annual cycle, shows an improvement of runoff predictions for 14 of the 16 basins. The proposed method is able to provide runoff estimates for nearly 100 poorly gauged basins covering an area of more than 11,500,000 km2 with a freshwater discharge, in volume, of more than 125,000 m3/s

Evaluation of short-term effects of three passive aquatic interventions on chronic non-specific low back pain: Study protocol for a randomized cross-over clinical trial

Background: Low back pain (LBP) is among the most common physical ailments and its chronic manifestation is a leading cause for disability worldwide. LBP is not attributable to a known diagnosis in 85% of the cases and therefore called chronic non-specific LBP (cnLBP). Passive immersion in warm water is commonly claimed to reduce muscular tension and pain, but not yet sufficiently investigated with regard to cnLBP. The current study compares three passive aquatic interventions regarding their effects on cnLBP: floating (resting in a supine immersed position on flotation devices), WATSU (a passive hands-on treatment, in which a practitioner stands in warm water, gently moving and massaging the client), and a Spa session. Methods: In this randomized cross-over clinical trial, all 24 adult participants with cnLBP will undergo the three interventions in balanced order with a washout-period of at least two weeks in between. Assessments will take place at baseline and follow-up of study and immediately before and after each intervention. Assessments cover the primary outcome self-reported current pain (Visual Analog Scale, range: 0-100 mm), other self-report questionnaires (addressing, e.g., personality traits or -states), and physiological parameters (e.g., measurement of spinal range of motion). Discussion: The study adds estimates of intervention-specific effect-sizes of widespread passive aquatic interventions to cnLBP. The study also points to potential underlying pain-reducing mechanisms. Trial registration: The protocol was approved by the Ethics Committee of the Canton Bern (ProjectID: 2018-00461). Trial registration is intended at ClinicalTrials.gov. Keywords: Flotation; Hydrotherapy; Relaxation; Spa therapy; Thermoneutral; WATSU; Warm water

Applications, indications, and effects of passive hydrotherapy WATSU (WaterShiatsu)—A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: WATSU (portmanteau word: water and shiatsu) is a form of passive hydrotherapy in chest-deep thermoneutral water (35°C = 95°F = 308.15 K). It combines elements of myofascial stretching, joint mobilization, massage, and shiatsu and is reported to be used to address physical and mental issues. The objective of this systematic review (PROSPERO Registration No. CRD42016029347) and the meta-analyses was to assess the applications, indications, and the effects of WATSU to form a basis for further studies. METHODS: A search for "WATSU OR watershiatsu OR (water AND shiatsu)" was conducted without any restrictions in 32 databases. Peer reviewed original articles addressing WATSU as a stand-alone hydrotherapy were assessed for risk of bias. Quantitative data of effects on pain, physical function, and mental issues were processed in random model meta-analyses with subgroup analyses by study design. Effect sizes were expressed as Hedges's g (± 95% confidence intervals). RESULTS: Of 1,906 unique citations, 27 articles regardless of study design were assessed for risk of bias. WATSU has been applied to individuals of all ages. Indications covered acute (e.g. pregnancy related low back pain) and chronic conditions (e.g. cerebral palsy) with beneficial effects of WATSU regarding e.g. relaxation or sleep quality. Meta-analyses suggest beneficial effect sizes of WATSU on pain (overall Hedges's g = -0.71, 95% CI = -0.91 to -0.51), physical function (overall Hedges's g = -0.76, 95% CI = -1.08 to -0.44), and mental issues (overall Hedges's g = -0.68, 95% CI = -1.02 to -0.35). CONCLUSION: Various applications, indications and beneficial effects of WATSU were identified. The grade of this evidence is estimated to be low to moderate at the best. To strengthen the findings of this study, high-quality RCTs are needed. PMID: 32168328 PMCID: PMC7069616 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.022970

The contribution of education to social progress

Education is the process of learning and expanding culture, and, as it contributes to the improvement of the human condition through better knowledge, health, living conditions, social equity and productivity, is a central tool for social progress. Education is expected to foster social progress through four different but interrelated purposes: humanistic, through the development of individual and collective human virtues to their full extent; civic, by the enhancement of public life and active participation in a democratic society; economic, by providing individuals with intellectual and practical skills that make them productive and enhance their and society’s living conditions; and through fostering social equity and justice. The expansion of formal education, which was part of the emergence of the nation states and modern economies, is one of the most visible indicators of social progress. In its expansion, education created a complex web of institutions distributed according to different paths along the life course, from early education through the school cycles to the final stages of higher education, continuing with the provision of forms of lifelong education. This web of institutions is subject to breaks and cleavages that reflect their diverse and multiple historical origins and purposes and the asynchronous developments in different regions. From primary schooling, education institutions grew horizontally (by learning fields, subjects, or occupations) and vertically (by levels and credentials.) The allocation of children and young people to different tracks and institutions, by a mixture of choice and assignment, is a core process in formal education that often reflects and reproduces preexisting inequalities. The chapter presents the main actions needed to allow education to fulfill its promise to promote social progress considering the four purposes of education. On a global level more research informed policy is required and a balanced approach to educational reform, including teacher education, by putting more emphasis on the civic and humanistic purposes. Governance structures that are flexible, participatory, and accountable considering the political and social context are recommended. The new agenda of Sustainable Development Goals for 2030 established in 2015 calls for a new cooperative paradigm based on the concept of “full global partnership” and the principle of “no one will be left behind.” Sustainable Development Goal 4 for Education aims “to ensure inclusive and quality education for all and promote lifelong learning”. This provides a broad framework for education’s contribution to social progress. To achieve this, it is necessary: (1) to expand access and improve the quality of early childhood education, as a precondition for life-long educational success in all its goals; (2) to improve the quality of schools, including in learners’ direct interactions with their peer groups, educators and the surroundings; in institutional characteristics such as group size, student-teacher ratio, teacher qualifications and spatial and material conditions, and in the provision of a meaningful and relevant curriculum; (3) to enhance the role of educators, considering that teachers are not just carriers of knowledge and information, but role models that have a significant impact on children’s dispositions towards learning and life more generally; (4) to make higher and vocational education more inclusive and socially relevant, thereby enhancing the opportunities for students of all sectors of society to further their education in a meaningful and practical ways, eliminating social and cultural restrictions to access and reducing the dividing lines between high and low prestige and esteem between institutions and careers. Additionally, appropriate use of the opportunities created by the new digital technologies is recommended. These are not a magic bullet that will replace existing educational institutions and create a new learning world. But they can be powerful instruments to improve the quality and relevance of education and its contribution to social progress

denosumab in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis and diabetes subgroup analysis of freedom and freedom extension

Abstract Purpose Diabetes and osteoporosis occur frequently in older adults and are both associated with increased fracture risk. Denosumab treatment reduced new vertebral, nonvertebral, and hip fractures over 3 years, with continued low fracture incidence for up to 10 years in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis. However, its effects in diabetic subjects with osteoporosis have not yet been investigated. Methods Post hoc analysis of the 3-year, placebo-controlled FREEDOM study and 7-year Extension included postmenopausal women with osteoporosis and diabetes. Effects on BMD, vertebral, and nonvertebral fracture incidence were evaluated. Results Of 7808 subjects in FREEDOM, 508 with diabetes received denosumab (n = 266) or placebo (n = 242). Among those, BMD increased significantly with denosumab versus placebo in FREEDOM, and continued to increase during the Extension in long-term (continuing denosumab) and crossover (placebo to denosumab) denosumab subjects. In FREEDOM, denosumab-treated subjects with diabetes had significantly lower new vertebral fracture rates (1.6%) versus placebo (8.0%) (RR: 0.20 [95% CI 0.07–0.61]; p = .001). Nonvertebral fracture incidence was higher with denosumab (11.7%) versus placebo (5.9%) (HR: 1.94 [95% CI 1.00–3.77]; p = .046), although there were fewer hip fractures with denosumab (World Health Organization, 2017 [ 1 ]) than placebo (4; nonsignificant). During the first 3 years in FREEDOM Extension, new vertebral and nonvertebral fracture incidences were low in long-term and crossover denosumab diabetic groups (≤6%), consistent with the overall Extension population; yearly nonvertebral fracture incidence was comparable to the FREEDOM placebo group. Conclusion Denosumab significantly increased BMD and decreased vertebral fracture risk in subjects with osteoporosis and diabetes. No reduction in nonvertebral fractures was observed

Chemosensory Event-Related Potentials in Response to Nasal Propylene Glycol Stimulation

Propylene glycol, also denoted as 1.2 propanediol (C3H8O2), often serves as a solvent for dilution of olfactory stimuli. It is supposed to serve as a neutral substance and has been used in many behavioral and electrophysiological studies to dilute pure olfactory stimuli. However, the effect of propylene glycol on perception and on neuronal responses has hitherto never been studied. In this study we tested by means of a threshold test, whether a nasal propylene glycol stimulation is recognizable by humans. Participants were able to recognize propylene glycol at a threshold of 42% concentration and reported a slight cooling effect. In addition to the threshold test, we recorded electroencephalography (EEG) during nasal propylene glycol stimulation to study the neuronal processing of the stimulus. We used a flow olfactometer and stimulated 15 volunteers with three different concentrations of propylene glycol (40 trials each) and water as a control condition (40 trials). To evaluate the neuronal response, we analyzed the event-related potentials (ERPs) and power modulations. The task of the volunteers was to identify a change (olfactory, thermal, or tactile) in the continuous air flow generated by the flow olfactometer. The analysis of the ERPs showed that propylene glycol generates a clear P2 component, which was also visible in the frequency domain as an evoked power response in the theta-band. The source analysis of the P2 revealed a widespread involvement of brain regions, including the postcentral gyrus, the insula and adjacent operculum, the thalamus, and the cerebellum. Thus, it is possible that trigeminal stimulation can at least partly account for sensations and brain responses elicited by propylene glycol. Based on these results, we conclude that the use of high propylene glycol concentrations to dilute fragrances complicates the interpretation of presumed purely olfactory effects

Review article: A European perspective on wind and storm damage – from the meteorological background to index-based approaches to assess impacts

Wind and windstorms cause severe damage to natural and human-made environments. Thus, wind-related risk assessment is vital for the preparation and mitigation of calamities. However, the cascade of events leading to damage depends on many factors that are environment-specific and the available methods to address wind-related damage often require sophisticated analysis and specialization. Fortunately, simple indices and thresholds are as effective as complex mechanistic models for many applications. Nonetheless, the multitude of indices and thresholds available requires a careful selection process according to the target sector. Here, we first provide a basic background on wind and storm formation and characteristics, followed by a comprehensive collection of both indices and thresholds that can be used to predict the occurrence and magnitude of wind and storm damage. We focused on five key sectors: forests, urban areas, transport, agriculture and wind-based energy production. For each sector we described indices and thresholds relating to physical properties such as topography and land cover but also to economic aspects (e.g. disruptions in transportation or energy production). In the face of increased climatic variability, the promotion of more effective analysis of wind and storm damage could reduce the impact on society and the environment