Impact of 2050 climate change on North American wildfire: consequences for ozone air quality

We estimate future area burned in the Alaskan and Canadian forest by the mid-century (2046–2065) based on the simulated meteorology from 13 climate models under the A1B scenario. We develop ecoregion-dependent regressions using observed relationships between annual total area burned and a suite of meteorological variables and fire weather indices, and apply these regressions to the simulated meteorology. We find that for Alaska and western Canada, almost all models predict significant (p < 0.05) increases in area burned at the mid-century, with median values ranging from 150 to 390 %, depending on the ecoregion. Such changes are attributed to the higher surface air temperatures and 500 hPa geopotential heights relative to present day, which together lead to favorable conditions for wildfire spread. Elsewhere the model predictions are not as robust. For the central and southern Canadian ecoregions, the models predict increases in area burned of 45–90 %. Except for the Taiga Plain, where area burned decreases by 50 %, no robust trends are found in northern Canada, due to the competing effects of hotter weather and wetter conditions there. Using the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model, we find that changes in wildfire emissions alone increase mean summertime surface ozone levels by 5 ppbv for Alaska, 3 ppbv for Canada, and 1 ppbv for the western US by the mid-century. In the northwestern US states, local wildfire emissions at the mid-century enhance surface ozone by an average of 1 ppbv, while transport of boreal fire pollution further degrades ozone air quality by an additional 0.5 ppbv. The projected changes in wildfire activity increase daily summertime surface ozone above the 95th percentile by 1 ppbv in the northwestern US, 5 ppbv in the high latitudes of Canada, and 15 ppbv in Alaska, suggesting a greater frequency of pollution episodes in the future atmosphere

Impact of 2050 climate change on North American wildfire: consequences for ozone air quality

We estimate future area burned in the Alaskan and Canadian forest by the mid-century (2046–2065) based on the simulated meteorology from 13 climate models under the A1B scenario. We develop ecoregion-dependent regressions using observed relationships between annual total area burned and a suite of meteorological variables and fire weather indices, and apply these regressions to the simulated meteorology. We find that for Alaska and western Canada, almost all models predict significant (p < 0.05) increases in area burned at the mid-century, with median values ranging from 150 to 390 %, depending on the ecoregion. Such changes are attributed to the higher surface air temperatures and 500 hPa geopotential heights relative to present day, which together lead to favorable conditions for wildfire spread. Elsewhere the model predictions are not as robust. For the central and southern Canadian ecoregions, the models predict increases in area burned of 45–90 %. Except for the Taiga Plain, where area burned decreases by 50 %, no robust trends are found in northern Canada, due to the competing effects of hotter weather and wetter conditions there. Using the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model, we find that changes in wildfire emissions alone increase mean summertime surface ozone levels by 5 ppbv for Alaska, 3 ppbv for Canada, and 1 ppbv for the western US by the mid-century. In the northwestern US states, local wildfire emissions at the mid-century enhance surface ozone by an average of 1 ppbv, while transport of boreal fire pollution further degrades ozone air quality by an additional 0.5 ppbv. The projected changes in wildfire activity increase daily summertime surface ozone above the 95th percentile by 1 ppbv in the northwestern US, 5 ppbv in the high latitudes of Canada, and 15 ppbv in Alaska, suggesting a greater frequency of pollution episodes in the future atmosphere

Estimating the distribution of morbidity and mortality of childhood diarrhea, measles, and pneumonia by wealth group in low- and middle-income countries

__Background:__ Equitable access to vaccines has been suggested as a priority for low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). However, it is unclear whether providing equitable access is enough to ensure health equity. Furthermore, disaggregated data on health outcomes and benefits gained across population subgroups are often unavailable. This paper develops a model to estimate the distribution of childhood disease cases and deaths across socioeconomic groups, and the potential benefits of three vaccine programs in LMICs. __Methods:__ For each country and for three diseases (diarrhea, measles, pneumonia), we estimated the distributions of cases and deaths that would occur across wealth quintiles in the absence of any immunization or treatment programs, using both the prevalence and relative risk of a set of risk and prognostic factors. Building on these baseline estimates, we examined what might be the impact of three vaccines (first dose of measles, pneumococcal conjugate, and rotavirus vaccines), under five scenarios based on different sets of quintile-specific immunization coverage and disease treatment utilization rates. __Results:__ Due to higher prevalence of risk factors among the poor, disproportionately more disease cases and deaths would occur among the two lowest wealth quintiles for all three diseases when vaccines or treatment are unavailable. Country-specific context, including how the baseline risks, immunization coverage, and treatment utilization are currently distributed across quintiles, affects how different policies translate into changes in cases and deaths distribution. __Conclusions:__ Our study highlights several factors that would substantially contribute to the unequal distribution of childhood diseases, and finds that merely ensuring equal access to vaccines will not reduce the health outcomes gap across wealth quintiles. Such information can inform policies and planning of programs that aim to improve equitable delivery of healthcare services

On MSSM charged Higgs boson production in association with an electroweak W boson at electron positron colliders

We present a calculation of the cross section for the process e+ e- --> W+/- H-/+ in the minimal supersymmetric standard model (MSSM) and the Two Higgs Doublet Model (THDM). We study the basic features of the MSSM prediction for some distinctive parameter scenarios. We find large effects from virtual squarks for scenarios with large mixing in the stop sector which can lead to a cross section vastly different from a THDM with identical Higgs sector parameters. We investigate this interesting behaviour in more detail by thoroughly scanning the MSSM parameter space for regions of large cross section. For a charged Higgs boson too heavy to be pair-produced at such a machine, it turns out that a large MSSM cross section with a good chance of observation is linked to a squark mass scale below 600 GeV and a considerable amount of mixing in either the stop and sbottom sector.Comment: 25 pages, 10 figures (two in colour). Substantially improved on the MSSM parameter restrictions taken into account. Added some reference

Associated production of H^{\pm} and W^{\mp} in high-energy e+e- collisions in the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model

We study the associated production of the charged Higgs boson and W^{\pm} gauge boson in high energy e+e- collisions in the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM). This associated production, which first arises at the one loop level, offers the possibility of producing the charged Higgs boson at the e+e- collider with mass more than half the center-of-mass energy, when the charged Higgs pair production is kinematically forbidden. We present analytic and numerical results for the cross section for e+e- --> W+ H- in the full MSSM, taking into account the previously uncalculated contributions from supersymmetric (SUSY) particles. We find that the contributions of the SUSY particles enhance the cross section over most of SUSY parameter space, especially when the SUSY particles are light, ~200 GeV. With favorable SUSY parameters, at small tan beta, this process can yield more than ten W^{\pm}H^{\mp} events for m_{H^{\pm}} <~ 350 GeV in 500 fb-1 at a 500 GeV e+e- collider, or m_{H^{\pm}} <~ 600 GeV in 1000 fb-1 at a 1000 GeV collider. 80% left-handed polarization of the e- beam improves these reaches to m_{H^{\pm}} <~ 375 GeV and m_{H^{\pm}} <~ 670 GeV, respectively.Comment: v2: 21 pages, 9 figures, comments on Higgs search bounds and new references added, and minor changes; v3: 23 pages, 11 figures, review of literature moved from introduction to new Sec.5 and 2 plots added, references added, typos corrected; v4: bug fixed in nu nubar H0 cross section (Fig.11), version to appear in PR

Contrasting deficits on executive functions between ADHD and reading disabled children

BACKGROUND. The object of this study was to analyze the executive functioning of children with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) or reading disability (RD) independent of their non-executive deficits. METHODS: Three carefully diagnosed groups of children, aged between 7 and 12 years (35 ADHD, 22 RD and 30 typically developing children), were tested on a wide range of tasks related to five major domains of executive functioning (EF): inhibition, visual working memory, planning, cognitive flexibility, and verbal fluency. Additional tasks were selected for each domain to control for non-executive processing. RESULTS: ADHD children were impaired on interference control, but not on prepotent and ongoing response suppression. ADHD showed deficits on visual working memory, planning, cognitive flexibility and phonetic fluency. RD children were impaired on phonetic fluency. The only EF measure that differentiated ADHD from RD was planning. CONCLUSIONS: The present sample of ADHD children showed several EF deficits, whereas RD children were almost spared executive dysfunction, but exhibited deficits in phonetic fluency

Forest dynamics following spruce budworm outbreaks in the northern and southern mixedwoods of central Quebec

The effects of 20th century spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana (Clem.)) outbreaks on forest dynamics was examined in the southern and northern parts of the mixedwood forest zone in central Quebec, Canada. In each region, three study areas were placed in unmanaged stands that had not burned for more than 200 years. Disturbance impacts and forest succession were evaluated using aerial photographs and dendrochronology. Spruce budworm outbreaks occurred around 1910, 1950, and 1980 in both regions. The 1910 outbreak seemed to have limited impact in both regions, and the 1950 outbreak caused heavy mortality in conifer stands (mostly of balsam fir, Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.) in the southern region. The 1980 outbreak caused major mortality in the northern region, but had little impact in the southern region. Successive spruce budworm outbreaks led to a massive invasion by hardwood species in the last century in the southern region but not in the northern region. The reason for such contrasting dynamics between regions is unknown, but we hypothesize that differences in disturbance intensities, influenced by climate, played a major role. Results from this study emphasize that generalizations about the effect of spruce budworm outbreaks on forest dynamics cannot be derived from observations made during a single outbreak or at a single location

Hamiltonian dynamics and Noether symmetries in Extended Gravity Cosmology

We discuss the Hamiltonian dynamics for cosmologies coming from Extended Theories of Gravity. In particular, minisuperspace models are taken into account searching for Noether symmetries. The existence of conserved quantities gives selection rule to recover classical behaviors in cosmic evolution according to the so called Hartle criterion, that allows to select correlated regions in the configuration space of dynamical variables. We show that such a statement works for general classes of Extended Theories of Gravity and is conformally preserved. Furthermore, the presence of Noether symmetries allows a straightforward classification of singularities that represent the points where the symmetry is broken. Examples of nonminimally coupled and higher-order models are discussed.Comment: 20 pages, Review paper to appear in EPJ

Top Squarks and Bottom Squarks in the MSSM with Complex Parameters

We present a phenomenological study of top squarks (~t_1,2) and bottom squarks (~b_1,2) in the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM) with complex parameters A_t, A_b, \mu and M_1. In particular we focus on the CP phase dependence of the branching ratios of (~t_1,2) and (~b_1,2) decays. We give the formulae of the two-body decay widths and present numerical results. We find that the effect of the phases on the (~t_1,2) and (~b_1,2) decays can be quite significant in a large region of the MSSM parameter space. This could have important implications for (~t_1,2) and (~b_1,2) searches and the MSSM parameter determination in future collider experiments. We have also estimated the accuracy expected in the determination of the parameters of ~t_i and ~b_i by a global fit of the measured masses, decay branching ratios and production cross sections at e^+ e^- linear colliders with polarized beams. Analysing two scenarios, we find that the fundamental parameters apart from A_t and A_b can be determined with errors of 1% to 2%, assuming an integrated luminosity of 1 ab^-1 and a sufficiently large c.m.s. energy to produce also the heavier ~t_2 and ~b_2 states. The parameter A_t can be determined with an error of 2 - 3%, whereas the error on A_b is likely to be of the order of 50%.Comment: 31 pages, 8 figures, comments and references added, conclusions unchanged; version to appear in Phys. Rev.