Hyperresolution information and hyperresolution ignorance in modelling the hydrology of the land surface

There is a strong drive towards hyperresolution earth system models in order to resolve finer scales of motion in the atmosphere. The problem of obtaining more realistic representation of terrestrial fluxes of heat and water, however, is not just a problem of moving to hyperresolution grid scales. It is much more a question of a lack of knowledge about the parameterisation of processes at whatever grid scale is being used for a wider modelling problem. Hyperresolution grid scales cannot alone solve the problem of this hyperresolution ignorance. This paper discusses these issues in more detail with specific reference to land surface parameterisations and flood inundation models. The importance of making local hyperresolution model predictions available for evaluation by local stakeholders is stressed. It is expected that this will be a major driving force for improving model performance in the future. Keith BEVEN, Hannah CLOKE, Florian PAPPENBERGER, Rob LAMB, Neil HUNTE

Application of the Hybrid-Maize model for limits to maize productivity analysis in a semiarid environment

Effects of meteorological variables on crop production can be evaluated using various models. We have evaluated the ability of the Hybrid-Maize model to simulate growth, development and grain yield of maize (Zea mays L.) cultivated on the Loess Plateau, China, and applied it to assess effects of meteorological variations on the performance of maize under rain-fed and irrigated conditions. The model was calibrated and evaluated with data obtained from field experiments performed in 2007 and 2008, then applied to yield determinants using daily weather data for 2005-2009, in simulations under both rain-fed and irrigated conditions. The model accurately simulated Leaf Area Index , biomass, and soil water data from the field experiments in both years, with normalized percentage root mean square errors < 25 %. Gr.Y and yield components were also accurately simulated, with prediction deviations ranging from -2.3 % to 22.0 % for both years. According to the simulations, the maize potential productivity averaged 9.7 t ha-1 under rain-fed conditions and 11.53 t ha-1 under irrigated conditions, and the average rain-fed yield was 1.83 t ha-1 less than the average potential yield with irrigation. Soil moisture status analysis demonstrated that substantial potential yield may have been lost due to water stress under rain-fed conditions

Scaling of Geochemical Reaction Rates via Advective Solute Transport

Transport in porous media is quite complex, and still yields occasional surprises. In geological porous media, the rate at which chemical reactions (e.g., weathering and dissolution) occur is found to diminish by orders of magnitude with increasing time or distance. The temporal rates of laboratory experiments and field observations differ, and extrapolating from laboratory experiments (in months) to field rates (in millions of years) can lead to order-of-magnitude errors. The reactions are transport-limited, but characterizing them using standard solute transport expressions can yield results in agreement with experiment only if spurious assumptions and parameters are introduced. We previously developed a theory of non-reactive solute transport based on applying critical path analysis to the cluster statistics of percolation. The fractal structure of the clusters can be used to generate solute distributions in both time and space. Solute velocities calculated from the temporal evolution of that distribution have the same time dependence as reaction-rate scaling in a wide range of field studies and laboratory experiments, covering some 10 decades in time. The present theory thus both explains a wide range of experiments, and also predicts changes in the scaling behavior in individual systems with increasing time and/or length scales. No other theory captures these variations in scaling by invoking a single physical mechanism. Because the successfully predicted chemical reactions include known results for silicate weathering rates, our theory provides a framework for understanding changes in the global carbon cycle, including its effects on extinctions, climate change, soil production, and denudation rates. It further provides a basis for understanding the fundamental time scales of hydrology and shallow geochemistry, as well as the basis of industrial agriculture. VC 2015 AIP Publishing LLC