The effect of treatment on pathogen virulence.

The optimal virulence of a pathogen is determined by a trade-off between maximizing the rate of transmission and maximizing the duration of infectivity. Treatment measures such as curative therapy and case isolation exert selective pressure by reducing the duration of infectivity, reducing the value of duration-increasing strategies to the pathogen and favoring pathogen strategies that maximize the rate of transmission. We extend the trade-off models of previous authors, and represents the reproduction number of the pathogen as a function of the transmissibility, host contact rate, disease-induced mortality, recovery rate, and treatment rate, each of which may be influenced by the virulence. We find that when virulence is subject to a transmissibility-mortality trade-off, treatment can lead to an increase in optimal virulence, but that in other scenarios (such as the activity-recovery trade-off) treatment decreases the optimal virulence. Paradoxically, when levels of treatment rise with pathogen virulence, increasing control efforts may raise predicted levels of optimal virulence. Thus we show that conflict can arise between the epidemiological benefits of treatment and the evolutionary risks of heightened virulence

Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty Quantication for an Epidemic Model

We examine estimation of the parameters of Susceptible-Infective-Recovered (SIR) models in the context of least squares. We review the use of asymptotic statistical theory and sensitivity analysis to obtain measures of uncertainty for estimates of the model parameters and the basic reproductive number (R0 )—an epidemiologically significant parameter grouping. We find that estimates of different parameters, such as the transmission parameter and recovery rate, are correlated, with the magnitude and sign of this correlation depending on the value of R0. Situations are highlighted in which this correlation allows R0 to be estimated with greater ease than its constituent parameters. Implications of correlation for parameter identifiability are discussed. Uncertainty estimates and sensitivity analysis are used to investigate how the frequency at which data is sampled affects the estimation process and how the accuracy and uncertainty of estimates improves as data is collected over the course of an outbreak. We assess the informativeness of individual data points in a given time series to determine when more frequent sampling (if possible) would prove to be most beneficial to the estimation process. This technique can be used to design data sampling schemes in more general contexts

Effect of Continuous Infusion of Relaxin on Progesterone, Oxytocin, and Relaxin Blood Concentrations and Time of Parturition in Beef Heifers

These studies were designed to determine whether continuous intravenous infusion of increasing dosages of porcine relaxin during late pregnancy in beef heifers would influence circulating blood concentrations of relaxin, progesterone, and oxytocin, and time of onset of parturition. Beef heifers were bred by artificial insemination and, on Day 277, fitted with indwelling jugular cannulas for hormone infusion and blood sampling from Day 277 to 286. Intravenous infusion of purified porcine relaxin (pRLX, 3000 U mg-1) was started in heifers (n = 8) at increasing dosages (200 U h-1 on Days 277 and 278, 300 U h-1 on Days 279 and 280, 500 U h-1 on Day 281, 600 U h-1 on Day 282, and 700 U h-1 on Days 283 to 286). Phosphate buffer saline (PBS, 10 ml h-1) was infused during these same times to control (n = 6) animals. Relaxin treatment steadily increased the circulating plasma concentration of immunoreactive relaxin to more than 120 ng ml-1 compared with less than 0.5 ng ml-1 in PBStreated controls. Relaxin infusion in increasing dosages over the treatment time was associated with a significant decrease (P \u3c 0.01) in plasma progesterone concentration compared with the PBS controls. Plasma levels of oxytocin at 4- hour intervals remained similar (P \u3e 0.05) during the pretreatment period and throughout continuous infusion of pRLX and PBS. Although continuous intravenous infusion of relaxin resulted in a decrease in circulating blood levels of progesterone, it did not significantly reduce the interval between the beginning of pRLX treatment and parturition compared with the PBS-infused control heifers. These results indicate that continuous intravenous infusion of high levels of porcine relaxin resulted in a decrease in progesterone secretion in late pregnant beef heifers

Bone mineral density, rib pain and other features of the female athlete triad in elite lightweight rowers

Objective: To determine bone mineral density (BMD) and the associations among BMD, menstrual history, disordered eating (DE), training history, intentional weight loss (IWL) and rib pain for the first time in female lightweight rowers. Setting: 9 lightweight rowing clubs, UK. Participants: 29 Caucasian female lightweight rowers volunteered. 21 (12 active, 9 retired) completed the study. Inclusion criteria: female lightweight rowers aged over 18 years. Exclusion criteria: participants with a history of bone disease, used medications known to influence BMD or if they were pregnant, lactating or postmenopausal. Main outcome measures: Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry measured total body (TB) composition and BMD at the spine, femoral neck (FN), radius and TB. DE, oligomenorrhoea/amenorrhoea years; rib pain and training history. Results: DE was reported in six of the rowers. The active with DE started rowing younger (p<0.05) than those without, and their amount of IWL was associated with Eating Attitudes Test-26 score (p<0.05). Some participants reported a history of oligomenorrhoea/amenorrhoea 17 (76%) and/or rib pain 7 (32%) with those with rib pain having lower spine and TB Z-scores (p<0.05) than those without. Those with oligomenorrhoea/amenorrhoea had lower spine Z-scores (p<0.01) than those without. Twelve participants had low BMD; three at spine; one at FN; and eight at radius. Thirteen per cent of mean total training hours (18.6±9.1 h/week) were spent strength training (2.4±2.2 h/week). Conclusions: Upper body exercises incorporating multidimensional high peak bone strain were not reported and may need to be considered in their strength training to improve radial BMD. Results suggest IWL and high level training at a young age increases the likelihood of DE and there may be a lack of quality nutritional support for these athletes. Thus, multidisciplinary sport science support should be offered at a young age and perhaps also to consider changing the weight rules to prevent the development of the Triad

Age and sex-specific rates of leaf regeneration in the Mojave Desert moss Syntrichia caninervis

The extremely skewed female-biased sex ratio in the desert moss Syntrichia caninervis was investigated by assessing the regeneration capacity of detached leaves. Juvenile, green, yellow-green, and brown leaves equating to approximately 0, 2, 6, and 12 yr of age, respectively, were detached from individuals of S. caninervis collected from 10 field populations and grown in a growth chamber for 58 d at a light intensity of 33–128 µmol · m–2 · s–1. Younger leaves (0–2 yr old) tended to have a greater viability, regenerate more quickly, extend their protonemal filaments farther, produce shoots (gametophores) more quickly, produce more shoots, and accumulate a greater biomass than older leaves (6 and 12 yr old). Among younger leaf classes, regenerating female leaves were more likely to produce a shoot than male leaves and produced more shoots than male leaves. The sexes did not differ significantly in time until protonemal emergence, linear extension of protonemata, or rate of biomass accumulation. However, protonemata of male leaves tended to emerge more quickly and produce a greater total biomass, ultimately consisting mostly of protonemata, than did female leaves. The more rapid proliferation of shoots by female leaf regenerants may help to explain the rarity of males in this species

Kinematics of the ring-like nebula SuWt 2

We present the first detailed spatio-kinematical analysis and modelling of the Southern planetary nebula SuWt 2. This object presents a problem for current theories of planetary nebula formation and evolution, as it is not known to contain a central post-main sequence star. Deep narrowband [NII]6584 images reveal the presence of faint bipolar lobes emanating fromthe edges of the nebular ring. Longslit observations of the H-alpha and [NII]6584 emission lines were obtained using EMMI on the 3.6-m ESO-NTT. The spectra reveal the nebular morphology as a bright torus encircling the waist of an extended bipolar structure. By deprojection, the inclination of the ring is found to be 68\degr $\pm$ 2\degr (c.f. ~90\degr for the double A-type binary believed to lie at the centre of the nebula), and the ring expansion velocity is found to be 28 km/s. Our findings are discussed with relation to possible formation scenarios for SuWt 2. Through comparison of the nebular heliocentric systemic velocity, found here to be -25 $\pm$ 5 km/s, and the heliocentric systemic velocity of the double A-type binary, we conclude that neither component of the binary could have been the nebular progenitor. However, we are unable to rule out the presence of a third component to the system, which would have been the nebula progenitor.Comment: 7 pages, 4 figures. Accepted for publication in MNRA

The ‘cultured rainforests’ of Borneo

Borneo has a 50,000-year record of $\textit{Homo sapiens}$' interactions with rainforest on the coastal lowlands assembled especially by the interdisciplinary investigation of the archaeology and palaeoecology of the Niah Caves on the coastal plain of Sarawak (Barker et al., 2007; Barker, 2013). More recent work by many of the same team in the interior of Borneo, in the Kelabit Highlands of Sarawak, has combined those approaches with ethnography and anthropology to investigate recent and present-day, as well as past, human-rainforest interactions. In combination, the two projects indicate that the present-day rainforests of Borneo are the product of a deep ecological history related to both natural factors such as climate change and cultural factors such as how different groups of people chose to extract their livelihoods from the forest, including in ways that do not have simple analogies with the subsistence activities of present-day rainforest foragers and farmers in Borneo.Sarawak Museum, Arts and Humanities Research Board (APN10872), Arts and Humanities Research Council (APN12333, APN16175, E5105741), Association of Southeast Asianists UK, British Academy, British Academy's Committee for Southeast Asian Studies, Natural Environment Research Council (Radiocarbon Facility)This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Elsevier via http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2016.08.01

Microbial impacts on 99mTc migration through sandstone under highly alkaline conditions relevant to radioactive waste disposal

Geological disposal of intermediate level radioactive waste in the UK is planned to involve the use of cementitious materials, facilitating the formation of an alkali-disturbed zone within the host rock. The biogeochemical processes that will occur in this environment, and the extent to which they will impact on radionuclide migration, are currently poorly understood. This study investigates the impact of biogeochemical processes on the mobility of the radionuclide technetium, in column experiments designed to be representative of aspects of the alkali-disturbed zone. Results indicate that microbial processes were capable of inhibiting 99mTc migration through columns, and X-ray radiography demonstrated that extensive physical changes had occurred to the material within columns where microbiological activity had been stimulated. The utilisation of organic acids under highly alkaline conditions, generating H2 and CO2, may represent a mechanism by which microbial processes may alter the hydraulic conductivity of a geological environment. Column sediments were dominated by obligately alkaliphilic H2-oxidising bacteria, suggesting that the enrichment of these bacteria may have occurred as a result of H2 generation during organic acid metabolism. The results from these experiments show that microorganisms are able to carry out a number of processes under highly alkaline conditions that could potentially impact on the properties of the host rock surrounding a geological disposal facility for intermediate level radioactive waste

Research capacity development in a South African higher education institution through a north-south collaboration

One of the constraints that prevent higher education institutions (HEIs) in developing countries from engaging in effective and essential research is a lack of research capacity. This study reports on a north-south collaboration between a group of Flemish universities and an HEI in South Africa with the specific goal of improving productivity, quality and capacity amongst researchers. A collaborative project with multiple subprojects was established in 2003, and extended over two consecutive five-year phases. Document analysis was conducted of annual reports, monitoring and evaluation reports, curriculum vitae of participating members, and progress reports of students and supervisors during this time. The findings of the study illustrate the extent to which research capacity objectives can be achieved through a north-south partnership. Members of the collaboration were able to develop intra- and inter-disciplinary partnerships that resulted in maximising the capacity- building efforts, enhancing both individual and institutional research --capacity--.DHE

Exploring the behavioural drivers of veterinary surgeon antibiotic prescribing: a qualitative study of companion animal veterinary surgeons in the UK

Background: Multi-drug resistant bacteria are an increasing concern in both human and veterinary medicine. Inappropriate prescribing and use of antibiotics within veterinary medicine may be a contributory factor to antimicrobial resistance (AMR). The ‘One Health’ Initiative aims to work across species and environments to reduce AMR, however; little is currently known about the factors which influence antibiotic prescribing among veterinary surgeons in companion animal practice. This paper reports on qualitative data analysis of interviews with veterinary surgeons whose practice partially or wholly focuses on companion animals (N = 16). The objective of the research was to explore the drivers of companion animal veterinary surgeons’ antibiotic prescribing behaviours. The veterinary surgeons interviewed were all practising within the UK (England (n = 4), Scotland (n = 11), Northern Ireland (n = 1)). A behavioural thematic analysis of the data was undertaken, which identified barriers and facilitators to specific prescribing-related behaviours. Results: Five components of prescribing behaviours were identified: 1) confirming clinical need for antibiotics; 2) responding to clients; 3) confirming diagnosis; 4) determining dose, duration and type of antibiotic; and 5) preventing infection around surgery (with attendant appropriate and inappropriate antibiotic prescribing behaviours). Barriers to appropriate prescribing identified include: business, diagnostic, fear, habitual practice and pharmaceutical factors. Facilitators include: AMR awareness, infection prevention, professional learning and regulation and government factors. Conclusion: This paper uses a behavioural lens to examine drivers which are an influence on veterinary surgeons’ prescribing behaviours. The paper contributes new understandings about factors which influence antibiotic prescribing behaviours among companion animal veterinary surgeons. This analysis provides evidence to inform future interventions, which are focused on changing prescribing behaviours, in order to address the pressing public health concern of AMR