Ultimate Intelligence Part I: Physical Completeness and Objectivity of Induction

We propose that Solomonoff induction is complete in the physical sense via several strong physical arguments. We also argue that Solomonoff induction is fully applicable to quantum mechanics. We show how to choose an objective reference machine for universal induction by defining a physical message complexity and physical message probability, and argue that this choice dissolves some well-known objections to universal induction. We also introduce many more variants of physical message complexity based on energy and action, and discuss the ramifications of our proposals.Comment: Under review at AGI-2015 conference. An early draft was submitted to ALT-2014. This paper is now being split into two papers, one philosophical, and one more technical. We intend that all installments of the paper series will be on the arxi

prepared for

We thank the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (Office of Water; Nationa

It\u27s not too Late for the Harpy Eagle (Harpia harpyja): High Levels Of Genetic Diversity and Differentiation Can Fuel Conservation Programs

Background: The harpy eagle (Harpia harpyja) is the largest Neotropical bird of prey and is threatened by human persecution and habitat loss and fragmentation. Current conservation strategies include local education, captive rearing and reintroduction, and protection or creation of trans-national habitat blocks and corridors. Baseline genetic data prior to reintroduction of captive-bred stock is essential for guiding such efforts but has not been gathered previously. Methodology/Findings: We assessed levels of genetic diversity, population structure and demographic history for harpy eagles using samples collected throughout a large portion of their geographic distribution in Central America (n = 32) and South America (n = 31). Based on 417 bp of mitochondrial control region sequence data, relatively high levels of haplotype and nucleotide diversity were estimated for both Central and South America, although haplotype diversity was significantly higher for South America. Historical restriction of gene flow across the Andes (i.e. between our Central and South American subgroups) is supported by coalescent analyses, the haplotype network and significant FST values, however reciprocally monophyletic lineages do not correspond to geographical locations in maximum likelihood analyses. A sudden population expansion for South America is indicated by a mismatch distribution analysis, and further supported by significant (p,0.05) negative values of Fu and Li’s DF and F, and Fu’s FS. This expansion, estimated at approximately 60 000 years BP (99 000–36 000 years BP 95% CI), encompasses a transition from a warm and dry time period prior to 50 000 years BP to an interval of maximum precipitation (50 000–36 000 years BP). Notably, this time period precedes the climatic and habitat changes associated with the last glacial maximum. In contrast, a multimodal distribution of haplotypes was observed for Central America suggesting either population equilibrium or a recent decline. Significance: High levels of mitochondrial genetic diversity in combination with genetic differentiation among subgroups within regions and between regions highlight the importance of local population conservation in order to preserve maximal levels of genetic diversity in this species. Evidence of historically restricted female-mediated gene flow is an important consideration for captive-breeding programs

Contractile reserve as a predictor of prognosis in patients with non-ischaemic systolic heart failure and dilated cardiomyopathy: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: Patients with non-ischaemic systolic heart failure (HF) and idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) are a heterogenous group with varied morbidity and mortality. Prognostication in this group is challenging. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to examine the significance of the presence of contractile reserve as assessed via stress imaging on mortality and hospitalisation. METHODS: A search for studies that non-invasively assessed contractile reserve in patients with DCM or non-ischaemic HF with reduced ejection fraction, stress imaging with follow-up data comparing outcomes. A range of imaging modalities and stressors were included. We examined primary endpoints of mortality and secondary endpoints of combined cardiovascular events including HF progression or hospitalisation. Our analysis compared endpoints in patients with contractile reserve and those without it. RESULTS: Nine prospective cohort studies were identified describing a total of 787 patients. These studies are methodologically but not statistically heterogenous (I2 = 31%). Using a random effect model, the presence of contractile reserve was associated with a significantly lower risk of mortality and cardiovascular events odds ratios of 0.20 (CI 0.11, 0.39) (P < 0.00001) and 0.13 (CI 0.04, 0.40) (P = 0.0004), respectively. CONCLUSION: Regardless of stressor and imaging modality and despite the significant methodological heterogeneity within the current data (imaging techniques and parameters), patients with non-ischaemic cardiomyopathy and reduced EF who demonstrate contractile reserve have a lower mortality, and lower events/hospitalisations. The presence of contractile reserve therefore offers a potential positive prognostic indicator when managing these patients

Quantum biology on the edge of quantum chaos

We give a new explanation for why some biological systems can stay quantum coherent for long times at room temperatures, one of the fundamental puzzles of quantum biology. We show that systems with the right level of complexity between chaos and regularity can increase their coherence time by orders of magnitude. Systems near Critical Quantum Chaos or Metal-Insulator Transition (MIT) can have long coherence times and coherent transport at the same time. The new theory tested in a realistic light harvesting system model can reproduce the scaling of critical fluctuations reported in recent experiments. Scaling of return probability in the FMO light harvesting complex shows the signs of universal return probability decay observed at critical MIT. The results may open up new possibilities to design low loss energy and information transport systems in this Poised Realm hovering reversibly between quantum coherence and classicality

A New View of the Circumstellar Environment of SN 1987A

We summarize the analysis of a uniform set of both previously-known and newly-discovered scattered-light echoes, detected within 30" of SN 1987A in ten years of optical imaging, and with which we have constructed the most complete three-dimensional model of the progenitor's circumstellar environment. Surrounding the SN is a richly-structured bipolar nebula. An outer, double-lobed ``peanut,'' which we believe is the contact discontinuity between the red supergiant and main sequence winds, is a prolate shell extending 28 ly along the poles and 11 ly near the equator. Napoleon's Hat, previously believed to be an independent structure, is the waist of this peanut, which is pinched to a radius of 6 ly. Interior, the innermost circumstellar material lies along a cylindrical hourglass, 1 ly in radius and 4 ly long, which connects to the peanut by a thick equatorial disk. The nebulae are inclined 41o south and 8o east of the line of sight, slightly elliptical in cross section, and marginally offset west of the SN. The 3-D geometry of the three circumstellar rings is studied, suggesting the equatorial ring is elliptical (b/a<0.98), and spatially offset in the same direction as the hourglass. Dust-scattering models suggest that between the hourglass and bipolar lobes: the gas density drops from 1--3 cm^{-3} to >0.03 cm^{-3}; the maximum dust-grain size increases from ~0.2 micron to 2 micron; and the Si:C dust ratio decreases. The nebulae have a total mass of ~1.7 Msun, yielding a red-supergiant mass loss around 5*10^{-6} Msun yr^{-1}.Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ 2/14/05. 16 pages in emualteapj forma

Multiscale photosynthetic exciton transfer

Photosynthetic light harvesting provides a natural blueprint for bioengineered and biomimetic solar energy and light detection technologies. Recent evidence suggests some individual light harvesting protein complexes (LHCs) and LHC subunits efficiently transfer excitons towards chemical reaction centers (RCs) via an interplay between excitonic quantum coherence, resonant protein vibrations, and thermal decoherence. The role of coherence in vivo is unclear however, where excitons are transferred through multi-LHC/RC aggregates over distances typically large compared with intra-LHC scales. Here we assess the possibility of long-range coherent transfer in a simple chromophore network with disordered site and transfer coupling energies. Through renormalization we find that, surprisingly, decoherence is diminished at larger scales, and long-range coherence is facilitated by chromophoric clustering. Conversely, static disorder in the site energies grows with length scale, forcing localization. Our results suggest sustained coherent exciton transfer may be possible over distances large compared with nearest-neighbour (n-n) chromophore separations, at physiological temperatures, in a clustered network with small static disorder. This may support findings suggesting long-range coherence in algal chloroplasts, and provides a framework for engineering large chromophore or quantum dot high-temperature exciton transfer networks.Comment: 9 pages, 6 figures. A significantly updated version is now published online by Nature Physics (2012

Impact of Scotland’s comprehensive, smoke-free legislation on stroke

&lt;p&gt;Background: Previous studies have reported a reduction in acute coronary events following smoke-free legislation. Evidence is lacking on whether stroke is also reduced. The aim was to determine whether the incidence of stroke, overalland by sub-type, fell following introduction of smoke-free legislation across Scotland on 26 March 2006.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Methods and Findings: A negative binomial regression model was used to determine whether the introduction of smokefree legislation resulted in a step and/or slope change in stroke incidence. The model was adjusted for age-group, sex, socioeconomic deprivation quintile, urban/rural residence and month. Interaction tests were also performed. Routine hospital administrative data and death certificates were used to identify all hospital admissions and pre-hospital deaths due to stroke (ICD10 codes I61, I63 and I64) in Scotland between 2000 and 2010 inclusive. Prior to the legislation, rates of all stroke, intracerebral haemorrhage and unspecified stroke were decreasing, whilst cerebral infarction was increasing at 0.97% per annum. Following the legislation, there was a dramatic fall in cerebral infarctions that persisted for around 20 months. No visible effect was observed for other types of stroke. The model confirmed an 8.90% (95% CI 4.85, 12.77, p,0.001) stepwise reduction in cerebral infarction at the time the legislation was implemented, after adjustment for potential cofounders.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Conclusions: Following introduction of national, comprehensive smoke-free legislation there was a selective reduction in cerebral infarction that was not apparent in other types of stroke.&lt;/p&gt

Predictive significance of the six-minute walk distance for long-term survival in chronic hypercapnic respiratory failure

Background: The 6-min walk distance ( 6-MWD) is a global marker of functional capacity and prognosis in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease ( COPD), but less explored in other chronic respiratory diseases. Objective: To study the role of 6-MWD in chronic hypercapnic respiratory failure ( CHRF). Methods: In 424 stable patients with CHRF and non-invasive ventilation ( NIV) comprising COPD ( n = 197), restrictive diseases ( RD; n = 112) and obesity-hypoventilation- syndrome ( OHS; n = 115), the prognostic value of 6-MWD for long- term survival was assessed in relation to that of body mass index (BMI), lung function, respiratory muscle function and laboratory parameters. Results: 6-MWD was reduced in patients with COPD ( median 280 m; quartiles 204/350 m) and RD ( 290 m; 204/362 m) compared to OHS ( 360 m; 275/440 m; p <0.001 each). Overall mortality during 24.9 (13.1/40.5) months was 22.9%. In the 424 patients with CHRF, 6-MWD independently predicted mortality in addition to BMI, leukocytes and forced expiratory volume in 1 s ( p <0.05 each). In COPD, 6-MWD was strongly associated with mortality using the median {[} p <0.001, hazard ratio ( HR) = 3.75, 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.24-6.38] or quartiles as cutoff levels. In contrast, 6-MWD was only significantly associated with impaired survival in RD patients when it was reduced to 204 m or less (1st quartile; p = 0.003, HR = 3.31, 95% CI: 1.73-14.10), while in OHS 6-MWD had not any prognostic value. Conclusions: In patients with CHRF and NIV, 6-MWD was predictive for long- term survival particularly in COPD. In RD only severely reduced 6-MWD predicted mortality, while in OHS 6-MWD was relatively high and had no prognostic value. These results support a disease-specific use of 6-MWD in the routine assessment of patients with CHRF. Copyright (C) 2007 S. Karger AG, Basel

Quantum phase transitions of light

Recently, condensed matter and atomic experiments have reached a length-scale and temperature regime where new quantum collective phenomena emerge. Finding such physics in systems of photons, however, is problematic, as photons typically do not interact with each other and can be created or destroyed at will. Here, we introduce a physical system of photons that exhibits strongly correlated dynamics on a meso-scale. By adding photons to a two-dimensional array of coupled optical cavities each containing a single two-level atom in the photon-blockade regime, we form dressed states, or polaritons, that are both long-lived and strongly interacting. Our zero temperature results predict that this photonic system will undergo a characteristic Mott insulator (excitations localised on each site) to superfluid (excitations delocalised across the lattice) quantum phase transition. Each cavity's impressive photon out-coupling potential may lead to actual devices based on these quantum many-body effects, as well as observable, tunable quantum simulators. We explicitly show that such phenomena may be observable in micro-machined diamond containing nitrogen-vacancy colour centres and superconducting microwave strip-line resonators.Comment: 11 pages, 5 figures (2 in colour