External validation of a predictive model of survival after cytoreductive nephrectomy for metastatic renal cell carcinoma.

INTRODUCTION: Recent trials have emphasized the importance of a precise patient selection for cytoreductive nephrectomy (CN). In 2013, a nomogram was developed for pre- and postoperative prediction of the probability of death (PoD) after CN in patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma. To date, the single-institutional nomogram which included mostly patients from the cytokine era has not been externally validated. Our objective is to validate the predictive model in contemporary patients in the targeted therapy era. METHODS: Multi-institutional European and North American data from patients who underwent CN between 2006 and 2013 were used for external validation. Variables evaluated included preoperative serum albumin and lactate dehydrogenase levels, intraoperative blood transfusions (yes/no) and postoperative pathologic stage (primary tumour and nodes). In addition, patient characteristics and MSKCC risk factors were collected. Using the original calibration indices and quantiles of the distribution of predictions, Kaplan-Meier estimates and calibration plots of observed versus predicted PoD were calculated. For the preoperative model a decision curve analysis (DCA) was performed. RESULTS: Of 1108 patients [median OS of 27 months (95% CI 24.6-29.4)], 536 and 469 patients had full data for the validation of the pre- and postoperative models, respectively. The AUC for the pre- and postoperative model was 0.68 (95% CI 0.62-0.74) and 0.73 (95% CI 0.68-0.78), respectively. In the DCA the preoperative model performs well within threshold survival probabilities of 20-50%. Most important limitation was the retrospective collection of this external validation dataset. CONCLUSIONS: In this external validation, the pre- and postoperative nomograms predicting PoD following CN were well calibrated. Although performance of the preoperative nomogram was lower than in the internal validation, it retains the ability to predict early death after CN

Prevalence, Disease-free, and Overall Survival of Contemporary Patients With Renal Cell Carcinoma Eligible for Adjuvant Checkpoint Inhibitor Trials

Introduction: Designing adjuvant trials is challenging because of uncertainties of prevalence and outcome of high-risk renal cell cancer (RCC) despite use of validated risk scores. Our objective is to investigate how differences in eligibility criteria may impact on potential study results in RCC adjuvant trials. Patients and Methods: RECUR is a multicenter European database capturing patient and tumor characteristics, recurrence patterns, and survival of those curatively treated for non-metastatic RCC from 2006 to 2011 without any adjuvant therapy. We used RECUR to evaluate prevalence, disease-free survival (DFS), and overall survival (OS) according to eligibility criteria of immunotherapy-based adjuvant trials IMMotion 010 (NCT03024996), Checkmate 914 (NCT03138512), Keynote-564 (NCT03142334), RAMPART (NCT03288532), and PROSPER (NCT03055013). Results: Of 3024 relevant patients in RECUR, 408 (13.5%), 725 (24%), 609 (20.1%), 1363 (45.1%), and 1071 (35.4%) met eligibility criteria for IMMotion-010, CheckMate-914, Keynote-564, RAMPART, and PROSPER, respectively. The median and 5-year DFS Kaplan-Meier estimates in RECUR corresponding to each trial eligibility criteria were: not reached and 69.6% for RAMPART; not reached and 64.5% for PROSPER; 109.3 months (95% confidence interval [CI], 83.9-134.6 months) and 57% for CheckMate-914; 75.8 months (95% CI, 52.7-98.8 months) and 54.3% for Keynote-564; and 43.6 months (95% CI, 30.8-56.4 months) and 45% for IMMotion-010. Our analysis may be limited by the retrospective design. Conclusions: RECUR provides estimated DFS and OS benchmarks for placebo arms of adjuvant checkpoint inhibitor studies and hence likely time to trial reporting. Well-documented contemporary registries rather than past risk models should be used to design future adjuvant trials

External validation of a predictive model of survival after cytoreductive nephrectomy for metastatic renal cell carcinoma.

INTRODUCTION: Recent trials have emphasized the importance of a precise patient selection for cytoreductive nephrectomy (CN). In 2013, a nomogram was developed for pre- and postoperative prediction of the probability of death (PoD) after CN in patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma. To date, the single-institutional nomogram which included mostly patients from the cytokine era has not been externally validated. Our objective is to validate the predictive model in contemporary patients in the targeted therapy era. METHODS: Multi-institutional European and North American data from patients who underwent CN between 2006 and 2013 were used for external validation. Variables evaluated included preoperative serum albumin and lactate dehydrogenase levels, intraoperative blood transfusions (yes/no) and postoperative pathologic stage (primary tumour and nodes). In addition, patient characteristics and MSKCC risk factors were collected. Using the original calibration indices and quantiles of the distribution of predictions, Kaplan-Meier estimates and calibration plots of observed versus predicted PoD were calculated. For the preoperative model a decision curve analysis (DCA) was performed. RESULTS: Of 1108 patients [median OS of 27 months (95% CI 24.6-29.4)], 536 and 469 patients had full data for the validation of the pre- and postoperative models, respectively. The AUC for the pre- and postoperative model was 0.68 (95% CI 0.62-0.74) and 0.73 (95% CI 0.68-0.78), respectively. In the DCA the preoperative model performs well within threshold survival probabilities of 20-50%. Most important limitation was the retrospective collection of this external validation dataset. CONCLUSIONS: In this external validation, the pre- and postoperative nomograms predicting PoD following CN were well calibrated. Although performance of the preoperative nomogram was lower than in the internal validation, it retains the ability to predict early death after CN

European Association of Urology Guidelines Office Rapid Reaction Group: An Organisation-wide Collaborative Effort to Adapt the European Association of Urology Guidelines Recommendations to the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Era

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is unlike anything seen before by modern science-based medicine. Health systems across the world are struggling to manage it. Added to this struggle are the effects of social confinement and isolation. This brings into question whether the latest guidelines are relevant in this crisis. We aim to support urologists in this difficult situation by providing tools that can facilitate decision making, and to minimise the impact and risks for both patients and health professionals delivering urological care, whenever possible. We hope that the revised recommendations will assist urologist surgeons across the globe to guide the management of urological conditions during the current COVID-19 pandemic.status: publishe

European Association of Urology Guidelines Office Rapid Reaction Group: An Organisation-wide Collaborative Effort to Adapt the European Association of Urology Guidelines Recommendations to the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Era

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is unlike anything seen before by modern science-based medicine. Health systems across the world are struggling to manage it. Added to this struggle are the effects of social confinement and isolation. This brings into question whether the latest guidelines are relevant in this crisis. We aim to support urologists in this difficult situation by providing tools that can facilitate decision making, and to minimise the impact and risks for both patients and health professionals delivering urological care, whenever possible. We hope that the revised recommendations will assist urologist surgeons across the globe to guide the management of urological conditions during the current COVID-19 pandemic.status: publishe

Genome-wide interaction study of smoking and bladder cancer risk

Bladder cancer is a complex disease with known environmental and genetic risk factors. We performed a genome-wide interaction study (GWAS) of smoking and bladder cancer risk based on primary scan data from 3002 cases and 4411 controls from the National Cancer Institute Bladder Cancer GWAS. Alternative methods were used to evaluate both additive and multiplicative interactions between individual single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and smoking exposure. SNPs with interaction P values < 5 x 10(-5) were evaluated further in an independent dataset of 2422 bladder cancer cases and 5751 controls. We identified 10 SNPs that showed association in a consistent manner with the initial dataset and in the combined dataset, providing evidence of interaction with tobacco use. Further, two of these novel SNPs showed strong evidence of association with bladder cancer in tobacco use subgroups that approached genome-wide significance. Specifically, rs1711973 (FOXF2) on 6p25.3 was a susceptibility SNP for never smokers [combined odds ratio (OR) = 1.34, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.20-1.50, P value = 5.18 x 10(-7)]; and rs12216499 (RSPH3-TAGAP-EZR) on 6q25.3 was a susceptibility SNP for ever smokers (combined OR = 0.75, 95% CI = 0.67-0.84, P value = 6.35 x 10-7). In our analysis of smoking and bladder cancer, the tests for multiplicative interaction seemed to more commonly identify susceptibility loci with associations in never smokers, whereas the additive interaction analysis identified more loci with associations among smokers-including the known smoking and NAT2 acetylation interaction. Our findings provide additional evidence of gene-environment interactions for tobacco and bladder cancer

Imputation and subset-based association analysis across different cancer types identifies multiple independent risk loci in the TERT-CLPTM1L region on chromosome 5p15.33

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have mapped risk alleles for at least 10 distinct cancers to a small region of 63 000 bp on chromosome 5p15.33. This region harbors the TERT and CLPTM1L genes; the former encodes the catalytic subunit of telomerase reverse transcriptase and the latter may play a role in apoptosis. To investigate further the genetic architecture of common susceptibility alleles in this region, we conducted an agnostic subset-based meta-analysis (association analysis based on subsets) across six distinct cancers in 34 248 cases and 45 036 controls. Based on sequential conditional analysis, we identified as many as six independent risk loci marked by common single-nucleotide polymorphisms: five in the TERT gene (Region 1: rs7726159, P = 2.10 x 10(-39); Region 3: rs2853677, P = 3.30 x 10(-36) and P-Conditional = 2.36 x 10(-8); Region 4: rs2736098, P = 3.87 x 10(-12) and P-Conditional = 5.19 x 10(-6), Region 5: rs13172201, P = 0.041 and P-Conditional = 2.04 x 10(-6); and Region 6: rs10069690, P = 7.49 x 10 215 and P-Conditional = 5.35 x 10(-7)) and one in the neighboring CLPTM1L gene(Region 2: rs451360; P = 1.90 x 10(-18) and P-Conditional = 7.06 x 10(-16)). Between three and five cancers mapped to each independent locus with both risk-enhancing and protective effects. Allele-specific effects on DNA methylation were seen for a subset of risk loci, indicating that methylation and subsequent effects on gene expression may contribute to the biology of risk variants on 5p15.33. Our results provide strong support for extensive pleiotropy across this region of 5p15.33, to an extent not previously observed in other cancer susceptibility loci

Analysis of heritability and shared heritability based on genome-wide association studies for 13 cancer types

Background: Studies of related individuals have consistently demonstrated notable familial aggregation of cancer. We aim to estimate the heritability and genetic correlation attributable to the additive effects of common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for cancer at 13 anatomical sites. Methods: Between 2007 and 2014, the US National Cancer Institute has generated data from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for 49 492 cancer case patients and 34 131 control patients. We apply novel mixed model methodology (GCTA) to this GWAS data to estimate the heritability of individual cancers, as well as the proportion of heritability attributable to cigarette smoking in smoking-related cancers, and the genetic correlation between pairs of cancers. Results: GWAS heritability was statistically significant at nearly all sites, with the estimates of array-based heritability, hl², on the liability threshold (LT) scale ranging from 0.05 to 0.38. Estimating the combined heritability of multiple smoking characteristics, we calculate that at least 24% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 14% to 37%) and 7% (95% CI = 4% to 11%) of the heritability for lung and bladder cancer, respectively, can be attributed to genetic determinants of smoking. Most pairs of cancers studied did not show evidence of strong genetic correlation. We found only four pairs of cancers with marginally statistically significant correlations, specifically kidney and testes (ρ = 0.73, SE = 0.28), diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) and pediatric osteosarcoma (ρ = 0.53, SE = 0.21), DLBCL and chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) (ρ = 0.51, SE =0.18), and bladder and lung (ρ = 0.35, SE = 0.14). Correlation analysis also indicates that the genetic architecture of lung cancer differs between a smoking population of European ancestry and a nonsmoking Asian population, allowing for the possibility that the genetic etiology for the same disease can vary by population and environmental exposures. Conclusion: Our results provide important insights into the genetic architecture of cancers and suggest new avenues for investigation.11 page(s

Analysis of Heritability and Shared Heritability Based on Genome-Wide Association Studies for 13 Cancer Types

Background: Studies of related individuals have consistently demonstrated notable familial aggregation of cancer. We aim to estimate the heritability and genetic correlation attributable to the additive effects of common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for cancer at 13 anatomical sites. Methods: Between 2007 and 2014, the US National Cancer Institute has generated data from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for 49 492 cancer case patients and 34 131 control patients. We apply novel mixed model methodology (GCTA) to this GWAS data to estimate the heritability of individual cancers, as well as the proportion of heritability attributable to cigarette smoking in smoking-related cancers, and the genetic correlation between pairs of cancers. Results: GWAS heritability was statistically significant at nearly all sites, with the estimates of array-based heritability, h(l)(2), on the liability threshold (LT) scale ranging from 0.05 to 0.38. Estimating the combined heritability of multiple smoking characteristics, we calculate that at least 24% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 14% to 37%) and 7% (95% CI = 4% to 11%) of the heritability for lung and bladder cancer, respectively, can be attributed to genetic determinants of smoking. Most pairs of cancers studied did not show evidence of strong genetic correlation. We found only four pairs of cancers with marginally statistically significant correlations, specifically kidney and testes (rho = 0.73, SE = 0.28), diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) and pediatric osteosarcoma (rho = 0.53, SE = 0.21), DLBCL and chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) (rho = 0.51, SE = 0.18), and bladder and lung (rho = 0.35, SE = 0.14). Correlation analysis also indicates that the genetic architecture of lung cancer differs between a smoking population of European ancestry and a nonsmoking Asian population, allowing for the possibility that the genetic etiology for the same disease can vary by population and environmental exposures. Conclusion: Our results provide important insights into the genetic architecture of cancers and suggest new avenues for investigation